NYSE$AGM

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported outstanding third quarter results, building upon solid financial results delivered in the first half of the year.

Farmer Mac announced outstanding results for the third quarter of 2022, with a net growth of $847.2 million in gross business volume, a $8.9 million year-over-year increase in net interest income, and a $9.7 million year-over-year increase in net effective spread.

  • Added $2.7 billion of gross business volume, resulting in net growth of $847.2 million
  • Net interest income grew $8.9 million year-over-year to $67.9 million
  • Net effective spread increased 17% from the prior-year period to a record $65.6 million
  • Record Core earnings of $33.4 million, or $3.07 per diluted common share, reflecting 21% growth year-over-year

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$72M

Previous: $56.8M+26.8%
EPS (adj)

$3.07

Previous: $2.55+20.4%
Net Interest Income (GAAP)

$67.9M

Previous: $55M+23.4%
Core Earnings

$33.4M

Previous: $27.6M+20.8%
Net Effective Spread (Non-GAAP)

$65.6M

Previous: $55.9M+17.4%
Free Cash Flow

$41.4M

Previous: $31.1M+33.3%
Net Income

$41.4M

Previous: $31.1M+33.3%
Operating Income

$64.6M

Previous: $50.3M+28.5%
Gross Profit

$70.9M

Previous: $56M+26.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$868M

Previous: $899M-3.4%
Total Assets

$26.4B

Previous: $24.7B+6.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$832K

Previous: $749K+11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Farmer Mac · Revenue · Quarterly

$72M

Q3 2022+26.8%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Management's expectations for Farmer Mac's future necessarily involve assumptions and estimates and the evaluation of risks and uncertainties.

Tailwinds

  • the availability to Farmer Mac of debt and equity financing and, if available, the reasonableness of rates and terms
  • legislative or regulatory developments that could affect Farmer Mac, its sources of business, or agricultural or rural infrastructure industries
  • the level of lender interest in Farmer Mac's products and the secondary market provided by Farmer Mac
  • the general rate of growth in agricultural mortgage and rural utilities indebtedness
  • developments in the financial markets, including possible investor, analyst, and rating agency reactions to events involving government-sponsored enterprises, including Farmer Mac

Headwinds

  • fluctuations in the fair value of assets held by Farmer Mac and its subsidiaries
  • the effect of economic conditions and geopolitics on agricultural mortgage or rural utilities lending, borrower repayment capacity, or collateral values, including fluctuations in interest rates, changes in U.S. trade policies, fluctuations in export demand for U.S. agricultural products, supply chain disruptions, increases in input costs, labor availability, volatility in commodity prices, and the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
  • the degree to which Farmer Mac is exposed to interest rate risk resulting from fluctuations in Farmer Mac's borrowing costs relative to market indexes
  • the effects of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to achieve monetary policy normalization and slow inflation
  • other factors that could hinder agricultural mortgage lending or borrower repayment capacity, including the effects of severe weather and drought, climate change, or fluctuations in agricultural real estate values

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-14.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%+6.4%+6.9%
Q4 2025-14.5%-8.0%-19.4%
Q3 2025+4.6%+3.7%+11.3%
Q1 2025+4.6%+10.4%+8.4%
Q4 2024+6.3%+3.7%-2.1%
Q3 2024+5.0%+12.7%+17.2%
Q2 2024-9.5%-10.3%-3.2%
Q1 2024-10.8%-7.6%-9.5%
Q4 2023-5.0%-5.9%+1.6%
Q3 2023-3.8%-2.9%+2.5%
Q2 2023+4.7%+8.1%-0.3%
Q1 2023-4.9%-1.0%+15.7%
Q4 2022+4.2%+7.0%-7.5%
Q3 2022+1.7%+5.4%+3.0%
Q2 2022+2.2%+6.2%-1.4%
Q1 2022-3.8%-5.5%-4.3%
Q4 2021-5.8%-4.8%-10.5%
Q3 2021-3.7%-1.6%-6.8%
Q2 2021+3.6%+4.4%+6.7%
Q1 2021-5.6%-7.5%-7.5%
Q4 2020+1.3%+4.2%+18.9%
Q3 2020+9.3%+4.5%+16.7%
Q2 2020+8.7%+11.1%+7.3%
Q1 2020-9.3%-8.4%+10.7%
Q4 2019+4.9%+5.1%-20.8%
Q3 2019-4.7%-6.2%-5.5%
Q2 2019+1.3%-2.5%+6.6%
Q1 2019+4.4%+1.4%-11.6%
Q4 2018+10.7%+13.1%-5.3%
Q3 2018+0.5%-0.3%-16.0%
Q2 2018-12.5%-17.2%-15.8%
Q1 2018-0.7%+0.6%+3.0%
Q4 2017+3.9%+4.9%+5.4%
Q3 2017-0.7%+4.1%+5.2%
Q2 2017-2.1%-0.1%-4.4%
Q1 2017+12.1%+11.8%+18.4%
Q4 2016+10.0%+10.1%-0.7%
Q3 2016+13.9%+18.8%+38.5%
Q2 2016+4.5%+2.7%+5.7%
Q1 2016-8.1%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+0.5%
Q1 2015+1.9%
Q4 2014-11.3%
Q3 2014-3.6%
Q2 2014+12.5%
Q1 2014-12.4%
Q4 2013+0.7%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013+7.1%
Q1 2013-1.4%
Q2 2012-0.8%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q3 2012+2.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q1 2011+2.9%
Q1 2012+2.9%
Q4 2009+3.9%
Q2 2011+3.9%
Q3 2011-7.4%
Q3 2010-7.4%
Q2 2010+7.4%
Q4 2010+7.4%
Q1 2010-8.6%

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