NYSE$AES

AES Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2023.

AES had a strong third quarter, delivering on financial and strategic objectives. The company expects to complete construction of 3.5 GW of new renewables this year and has signed 3.7 GW of contracts for new renewables so far this year. They also expect to be in the top half of their Adjusted EPS guidance range for 2023 and are reaffirming all of their short- and long-term financial guidance metrics.

  • Signed new contracts for 3.7 GW of renewables in year-to-date 2023
  • On track to complete construction of 3.5 GW of renewables in 2023
  • Agreed to minority sell-downs of businesses in the Dominican Republic and Panama for $190 million in asset sale proceeds, securing full year 2023 asset sales target
  • Awarded up to $2.4 billion of grant funding by the US Department of Energy for two green hydrogen hubs with AES participation

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.43B

Previous: $3.63B-5.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.60

Previous: $0.63-4.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.9B

Previous: $1.05B-280.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$777M

Previous: -$268M-189.9%
Net Income

$291M

Previous: $446M-34.8%
Operating Income

$918M

Previous: $892M+2.9%
Gross Profit

$918M

Previous: $892M+2.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.67B

Previous: $1.55B+71.8%
Total Assets

$43.2B

Previous: $37.8B+14.3%

Revenue & EPS history

AES · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.43B

Q3 2023-5.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AES · $36M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • Corporate and Other
    $36M

Forward guidance

The Company is reaffirming its 2023 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,600 to $2,900 million, and its expectation for annualized growth in Adjusted EBITDA of 3% to 5% through 2027, from a base of its reaffirmed 2023 guidance. Excluding the Company's Energy Infrastructure SBU, annualized growth in Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 17% to 20% through 2027, from a base of 2023 guidance. The Company now expects full year 2023 Adjusted EPS to be in the top half of the guidance range of $1.65 to $1.75. The Company is reaffirming its annualized growth target for Adjusted EPS of 7% to 9% through 2025, from a base year of 2020. The Company is also reaffirming its annualized growth target for Adjusted EPS of 6% to 8% through 2027, from a base of its reaffirmed 2023 guidance of $1.65 to $1.75.

Tailwinds

  • Growth in 2023 is expected to be primarily driven by new renewables expected to come online.
  • Reaffirming 2023 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,600 to $2,900 million.
  • Reaffirming annualized growth target of 3% to 5% through 2027, from a base of its reaffirmed 2023 guidance.
  • Reaffirming annualized growth target for Adjusted EPS of 7% to 9% through 2025, from a base year of 2020.
  • Reaffirming annualized growth target for Adjusted EPS of 6% to 8% through 2027, from a base of its reaffirmed 2023 guidance of $1.65 to $1.75.

Headwinds

  • Growth is expected to be partially offset by lower margins from the Company's LNG business, due to normalization of LNG prices and the roll-off of a gas supply contract.
  • Growth is expected to be partially offset by lower contract margins in Chile.
  • Growth is expected to be partially offset by higher interest expense in Colombia.
  • Lower contributions from LNG transactions versus 2022 at the Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit (SBU).
  • During the third quarter of 2023, the Company realized Tax Attributes of $18 million, a decrease of $42 million compared to third quarter 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

41 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.1%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-10.7%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.6%+0.3%+3.0%
Q4 2025+7.0%-12.1%-13.8%
Q3 2025+5.8%+5.7%+3.6%
Q1 2025+2.2%+3.5%+1.4%
Q4 2024-3.5%-6.2%+7.2%
Q3 2024-10.4%-5.5%-20.6%
Q2 2024-3.7%-7.1%-3.7%
Q1 2024+2.8%+3.7%+18.8%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.3%+7.8%
Q3 2023+13.1%+8.7%+22.1%
Q2 2023-6.7%-6.7%-15.0%
Q1 2023+1.0%-0.8%-10.1%
Q4 2022-2.5%-0.9%-7.3%
Q3 2022+2.3%+0.2%+9.5%
Q2 2022+3.8%+6.2%+13.7%
Q1 2022-4.5%-8.9%+1.6%
Q4 2021+2.7%+0.6%+18.6%
Q3 2021-1.0%-5.8%-6.3%
Q2 2021+3.9%+1.0%+3.0%
Q1 2021-2.6%-4.3%-5.7%
Q4 2020-5.1%-4.3%-6.0%
Q3 2020+0.0%+1.5%+0.5%
Q2 2020+11.4%+10.3%+14.1%
Q1 2020+2.7%-0.5%+14.1%
Q4 2019-0.4%-2.5%-26.5%
Q3 2019+2.2%+4.3%+8.9%
Q2 2019-4.0%-4.6%-5.4%
Q1 2019-4.9%-3.3%+0.9%
Q4 2018-0.3%-1.0%+4.6%
Q3 2018+3.5%+3.0%+2.5%
Q2 2018+0.9%-1.9%-3.9%
Q1 2018-2.4%-0.6%+2.8%
Q4 2017+4.0%+3.9%+8.8%
Q3 2017-0.8%-0.6%+0.9%
Q2 2017+1.4%+0.0%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.2%+0.1%+2.2%
Q4 2016-3.4%-3.2%-5.7%
Q3 2016+5.6%+2.2%-4.9%
Q2 2016-1.9%-1.9%-1.5%
Q1 2016+3.3%
Q4 2015+4.1%
Q3 2015-5.7%
Q2 2015-2.3%
Q1 2015+0.4%
Q4 2014+8.1%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+2.7%
Q1 2014-3.0%
Q4 2013-3.6%
Q3 2013+1.1%
Q2 2013+1.7%
Q1 2013-4.2%
Q4 2012+6.1%
Q3 2012-3.1%
Q2 2012-5.9%
Q1 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011+3.0%
Q2 2011-10.7%
Q1 2011+0.2%
Q4 2010+3.8%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+3.7%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q1 2010+2.1%
Q3 2009+0.4%
Q3 2008+0.4%
Q4 2006+1.4%
Q1 2009+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.4%
Q2 2008+6.4%
Q4 2008+6.4%
Q2 2009+6.4%

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