NYSE$AES

AES Corp · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2021.

AES Corporation reported an increase in diluted EPS to $0.48 and adjusted EPS to $0.50 for Q3 2021, driven by renewables growth and the Southland portfolio. The company reaffirms its 2021 adjusted EPS guidance and 7% to 9% annualized growth target through 2025.

  • Signed 4 GW of new PPAs for renewable energy projects in year-to-date 2021, increasing the backlog to 9.2 GW.
  • Increased full year 2021 target to sign renewables under long-term PPAs to 5 GW, from 4 GW.
  • Received approval for a two-year extension through 2023 for the operation of the 876 MW Southland Redondo Beach facility.
  • Fluence completed its Initial Public Offering and began trading on October 28, 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.04B

Previous: $2.55B+19.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.50

Previous: $0.42+19.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.53B

Previous: -$1.38B-11.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.19B

Previous: -$1.71B+30.3%
Net Income

$343M

Previous: -$333M+203.0%
Operating Income

-$1.43B

Previous: -$1.13B-27.1%
Gross Profit

$760M

Previous: $756M+0.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.41B

Previous: $1.51B-6.2%
Total Assets

$35B

Previous: $34.3B+2.2%

Revenue & EPS history

AES · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.04B

Q3 2021+19.3%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AES · $36M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • Corporate and Other
    $36M

Forward guidance

The company is reaffirming its 2021 Adjusted EPS1 guidance of $1.50 to $1.58, but now expects to be at the low end of the range reflecting a $0.07 per share non-cash adjustment.

Tailwinds

  • Reaffirming 2021 Adjusted EPS1 guidance range of $1.50 to $1.58.
  • Reaffirming 7% to 9% annualized growth target through 2025, off a base year of 2020.
  • Increasing full year 2021 target to sign renewables under long-term PPAs to 5 GW, from 4 GW.
  • Backlog is now the highest in our history at 9.2 GW, with 60% in the United States.
  • Remain on track to achieve our 2021 cash flow and credit goals

Headwinds

  • Expecting low end of the range due to a non-cash adjustment related to equity units issued in March 2021.
  • Adjustment follows an updated interpretation of the accounting for the equity units.
  • Prior guidance assumed these additional shares would be included only upon settlement of the equity units in 2024
  • Readers are encouraged to read AES’ filings to learn more about the risk factors associated with AES’ business.
  • Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

41 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.1%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-10.7%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.6%+0.3%+3.0%
Q4 2025+7.0%-12.1%-13.8%
Q3 2025+5.8%+5.7%+3.6%
Q1 2025+2.2%+3.5%+1.4%
Q4 2024-3.5%-6.2%+7.2%
Q3 2024-10.4%-5.5%-20.6%
Q2 2024-3.7%-7.1%-3.7%
Q1 2024+2.8%+3.7%+18.8%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.3%+7.8%
Q3 2023+13.1%+8.7%+22.1%
Q2 2023-6.7%-6.7%-15.0%
Q1 2023+1.0%-0.8%-10.1%
Q4 2022-2.5%-0.9%-7.3%
Q3 2022+2.3%+0.2%+9.5%
Q2 2022+3.8%+6.2%+13.7%
Q1 2022-4.5%-8.9%+1.6%
Q4 2021+2.7%+0.6%+18.6%
Q3 2021-1.0%-5.8%-6.3%
Q2 2021+3.9%+1.0%+3.0%
Q1 2021-2.6%-4.3%-5.7%
Q4 2020-5.1%-4.3%-6.0%
Q3 2020+0.0%+1.5%+0.5%
Q2 2020+11.4%+10.3%+14.1%
Q1 2020+2.7%-0.5%+14.1%
Q4 2019-0.4%-2.5%-26.5%
Q3 2019+2.2%+4.3%+8.9%
Q2 2019-4.0%-4.6%-5.4%
Q1 2019-4.9%-3.3%+0.9%
Q4 2018-0.3%-1.0%+4.6%
Q3 2018+3.5%+3.0%+2.5%
Q2 2018+0.9%-1.9%-3.9%
Q1 2018-2.4%-0.6%+2.8%
Q4 2017+4.0%+3.9%+8.8%
Q3 2017-0.8%-0.6%+0.9%
Q2 2017+1.4%+0.0%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.2%+0.1%+2.2%
Q4 2016-3.4%-3.2%-5.7%
Q3 2016+5.6%+2.2%-4.9%
Q2 2016-1.9%-1.9%-1.5%
Q1 2016+3.3%
Q4 2015+4.1%
Q3 2015-5.7%
Q2 2015-2.3%
Q1 2015+0.4%
Q4 2014+8.1%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+2.7%
Q1 2014-3.0%
Q4 2013-3.6%
Q3 2013+1.1%
Q2 2013+1.7%
Q1 2013-4.2%
Q4 2012+6.1%
Q3 2012-3.1%
Q2 2012-5.9%
Q1 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011+3.0%
Q2 2011-10.7%
Q1 2011+0.2%
Q4 2010+3.8%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+3.7%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q1 2010+2.1%
Q3 2009+0.4%
Q3 2008+0.4%
Q4 2006+1.4%
Q1 2009+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.4%
Q2 2008+6.4%
Q4 2008+6.4%
Q2 2009+6.4%

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