NYSE$AES

AES Corp · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record sales with data center hyperscalers and expects to achieve upper half of 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range.

AES reported strong Q2 2024 results, driven by increased sales to data centers and overall strategic accomplishments. The company's adjusted EPS guidance range is now expected to be in the upper half. AES signed 2.5 GW of new agreements, including 2.2 GW directly with data center customers.

  • Signed 2.5 GW of new agreements, including 2.2 GW directly with data center customers.
  • Signed agreements to support 1.2 GW of new data center load at US utilities and are in advanced negotiations for up to another 3 GW over the next 12 months.
  • Total backlog of signed long-term PPAs now 12.6 GW.
  • Completed the construction or acquisition of 1.6 GW in year-to-date 2024 and are on track to add 3.6 GW of new projects to operations in full year 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.94B

Previous: $3.03B-2.8%
EPS

$0.27

Previous: $0.21+28.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$658M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes

$849M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$3.83B

Previous: -$3.4B-12.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$3.65B

Previous: -$3.44B-6.2%
Net Income

$185M

Previous: -$39M+574.4%
Operating Income

-$185M

Previous: -$63M-193.7%
Gross Profit

$553M

Previous: $498M+11.0%

Revenue & EPS history

AES · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.94B

Q2 2024-2.8%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AES · $36M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • Corporate and Other
    $36M

Forward guidance

AES now expects to achieve the upper half of its 2024 Adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.87 to $1.97 and expects 2024 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes to be in the upper half of the range of $3,550 to $3,950 million.

Tailwinds

  • Driven by new renewables commissionings.
  • Rate base growth at US utilities.
  • Improved margins in Chile.
  • Reaffirming annualized Adjusted EPS growth target of 7% to 9% through 2025, off a base of 2020.
  • Reaffirming annualized Adjusted EPS growth target of 7% to 9% through 2027, off a base of 2023 guidance.

Headwinds

  • Impacts from significant asset sales closed in 2023 and expected to close in 2024.
  • Prior year margins earned on LNG transactions.
  • Asset sales
  • Prior year margins on LNG transactions.
  • The Company's 2024 guidance is based on foreign currency and commodity forward curves as of June 30, 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

41 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.1%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-10.7%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.6%+0.3%+3.0%
Q4 2025+7.0%-12.1%-13.8%
Q3 2025+5.8%+5.7%+3.6%
Q1 2025+2.2%+3.5%+1.4%
Q4 2024-3.5%-6.2%+7.2%
Q3 2024-10.4%-5.5%-20.6%
Q2 2024-3.7%-7.1%-3.7%
Q1 2024+2.8%+3.7%+18.8%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.3%+7.8%
Q3 2023+13.1%+8.7%+22.1%
Q2 2023-6.7%-6.7%-15.0%
Q1 2023+1.0%-0.8%-10.1%
Q4 2022-2.5%-0.9%-7.3%
Q3 2022+2.3%+0.2%+9.5%
Q2 2022+3.8%+6.2%+13.7%
Q1 2022-4.5%-8.9%+1.6%
Q4 2021+2.7%+0.6%+18.6%
Q3 2021-1.0%-5.8%-6.3%
Q2 2021+3.9%+1.0%+3.0%
Q1 2021-2.6%-4.3%-5.7%
Q4 2020-5.1%-4.3%-6.0%
Q3 2020+0.0%+1.5%+0.5%
Q2 2020+11.4%+10.3%+14.1%
Q1 2020+2.7%-0.5%+14.1%
Q4 2019-0.4%-2.5%-26.5%
Q3 2019+2.2%+4.3%+8.9%
Q2 2019-4.0%-4.6%-5.4%
Q1 2019-4.9%-3.3%+0.9%
Q4 2018-0.3%-1.0%+4.6%
Q3 2018+3.5%+3.0%+2.5%
Q2 2018+0.9%-1.9%-3.9%
Q1 2018-2.4%-0.6%+2.8%
Q4 2017+4.0%+3.9%+8.8%
Q3 2017-0.8%-0.6%+0.9%
Q2 2017+1.4%+0.0%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.2%+0.1%+2.2%
Q4 2016-3.4%-3.2%-5.7%
Q3 2016+5.6%+2.2%-4.9%
Q2 2016-1.9%-1.9%-1.5%
Q1 2016+3.3%
Q4 2015+4.1%
Q3 2015-5.7%
Q2 2015-2.3%
Q1 2015+0.4%
Q4 2014+8.1%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+2.7%
Q1 2014-3.0%
Q4 2013-3.6%
Q3 2013+1.1%
Q2 2013+1.7%
Q1 2013-4.2%
Q4 2012+6.1%
Q3 2012-3.1%
Q2 2012-5.9%
Q1 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011+3.0%
Q2 2011-10.7%
Q1 2011+0.2%
Q4 2010+3.8%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+3.7%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q1 2010+2.1%
Q3 2009+0.4%
Q3 2008+0.4%
Q4 2006+1.4%
Q1 2009+1.4%
Q4 2007+1.4%
Q2 2008+6.4%
Q4 2008+6.4%
Q2 2009+6.4%

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