NASDAQ$VITL

Vital Farms Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vital Farms reported record net revenue and improved profitability.

Vital Farms reported a strong fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023, with record net revenue of $135.8 million for the quarter, up 23.4% year-over-year, and net income of $7.2 million, compared to $1.9 million in the prior year quarter. The company's full-year net revenue increased by 30.3% to $471.9 million, and net income reached $25.6 million, compared to $1.2 million in the previous year.

  • Net revenue increased by 23.4% to $135.8 million in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2022.
  • Net income was $7.2 million in Q4 2023, compared to $1.9 million in the prior year quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $13.9 million, or 10.2% of net revenue, in Q4 2023, compared to $6.9 million, or 6.2% of net revenue, in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Gross profit was $45.2 million, or 33.3% of net revenue, in Q4 2023, compared to $33.3 million, or 30.3% of net revenue, in the prior year quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$136M

Previous: $110M+23.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.17

Previous: $0.04+325.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.4M

Previous: $3.57M-167.2%
Net Income

$7.2M

Previous: $1.9M+278.9%
Operating Income

$9.1M

Previous: $3.4M+167.6%
Gross Profit

$45.2M

Previous: $33.3M+35.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.92M

Previous: $1.54M+24.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Vital Farms · Revenue · Quarterly

$136M

Q4 2023+23.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2024, management expects net revenue of at least $552 million, representing at least a 17% increase compared to fiscal year 2023, and Adjusted EBITDA of at least $57 million, representing at least an 18% increase compared to fiscal year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Net revenue of at least $552 million, which represents at least a 17% increase compared to fiscal year 2023 and at least a 19% increase when excluding the extra week in fiscal year 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of at least $57 million, which represents at least an 18% increase compared to fiscal year 2023 and at least a 20% increase when excluding the extra week in fiscal year 2023.

Headwinds

  • Capital expenditures in the range of $35 million to $45 million.
  • Guidance assumes that there are no additional significant disruptions to the supply chain or its customers or consumers, including any issues from adverse macroeconomic factors.
  • Vital Farms cannot provide a reconciliation between its forecasted Adjusted EBITDA and net income (loss) and Adjusted EBITDA Margin and net income (loss) margin, their most directly comparable GAAP measures, without unreasonable effort due to the unavailability of reliable estimates for income taxes, among other items.
  • These items are not within our control and may vary greatly between periods and could significantly impact future financial results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

12 / 29 earnings

Positive

+21.7%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-20.8%

Q1 2027

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027-20.8%-28.2%-16.3%
Q4 2025-10.9%-18.1%-47.0%
Q3 2025+16.6%+7.8%-2.2%
Q1 2025-9.3%-4.9%-14.0%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.1%-12.3%
Q3 2024-16.2%-22.9%-3.9%
Q2 2024-12.2%-12.0%-15.7%
Q1 2024+21.7%+23.7%+39.9%
Q4 2023+7.9%+10.5%+33.8%
Q3 2023+2.7%+5.9%+22.6%
Q2 2023+17.6%+15.6%+12.5%
Q1 2023+18.6%+20.4%+13.2%
Q4 2022+1.0%-3.9%-5.1%
Q3 2022+4.3%+11.5%+13.4%
Q2 2022+12.3%+15.1%+5.3%
Q1 2022+0.1%-14.0%-22.6%
Q4 2021-6.9%-0.3%+5.2%
Q3 2021+13.6%+16.7%+6.5%
Q2 2021+2.5%+2.5%-4.7%
Q1 2021-3.2%+1.1%+7.3%
Q1 2020-3.2%+1.1%+7.3%
Q4 2020-14.1%-20.5%+2.6%
Q4 2018-14.1%-20.5%+2.6%
Q3 2020-14.7%-15.7%-26.3%
Q3 2019-14.7%-15.7%-26.3%
Q2 2020-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q4 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q2 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q1 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%

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