NASDAQ$VITL

Vital Farms Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record net revenue and improved gross margin and Adjusted EBITDA.

Vital Farms reported a strong third quarter with record net revenue of $92.0 million, a 42.4% increase year-over-year. The company also saw improvements in gross margin and Adjusted EBITDA, despite a challenging inflationary environment.

  • Net revenue increased by 42.4% to $92.0 million.
  • Net income was $0.7 million, compared to a net loss of $1.3 million in the prior year quarter.
  • Gross profit was $29.5 million, or 32.0% of net revenue, compared to $19.8 million, or 30.7% of net revenue, in the prior year quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $5.2 million, compared to $0.2 million in the prior year quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$92M

Previous: $64.6M+42.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.02

Previous: -$0.03+166.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$5.2M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$6.9M

Previous: -$14.2M+51.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$6.18M

Previous: -$15.5M+60.2%
Net Income

$723K

Previous: -$1.32M+154.7%
Operating Income

$2.02M

Previous: -$1.81M+212.1%
Gross Profit

$29.5M

Previous: $19.8M+48.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$18.8M

Previous: $27.8M-32.3%
Total Assets

$207M

Previous: $187M+10.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.57M

Previous: $1.2M+31.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Vital Farms · Revenue · Quarterly

$92M

Q3 2022+42.4%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Vital Farms reaffirmed its fiscal year 2022 outlook, expecting net revenue of more than $340 million and Adjusted EBITDA of more than $13 million.

Tailwinds

  • Reaffirming guidance for net revenue of more than $340 million for fiscal year 2022, a projected increase of 30% compared to fiscal year 2021.
  • Reaffirming guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of more than $13 million for fiscal year 2022, an increase of 62% compared to fiscal year 2021.
  • Focus on operational execution to maintain progress toward long-term goal of low double-digit Adjusted EBITDA Margin.
  • Ongoing demand for products.
  • No additional significant disruptions to the supply chain or its customers or consumers are assumed.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes no additional significant disruptions to the supply chain.
  • Guidance assumes no significant disruptions to customers or consumers.
  • Guidance assumes no issues from adverse macroeconomic factors.
  • Inability to provide a reconciliation between forecasted Adjusted EBITDA and net income due to the unavailability of reliable estimates for income taxes.
  • Income taxes are not within the company's control and may vary greatly between periods.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

12 / 29 earnings

Positive

+21.7%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-20.8%

Q1 2027

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027-20.8%-28.2%-16.3%
Q4 2025-10.9%-18.1%-47.0%
Q3 2025+16.6%+7.8%-2.2%
Q1 2025-9.3%-4.9%-14.0%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.1%-12.3%
Q3 2024-16.2%-22.9%-3.9%
Q2 2024-12.2%-12.0%-15.7%
Q1 2024+21.7%+23.7%+39.9%
Q4 2023+7.9%+10.5%+33.8%
Q3 2023+2.7%+5.9%+22.6%
Q2 2023+17.6%+15.6%+12.5%
Q1 2023+18.6%+20.4%+13.2%
Q4 2022+1.0%-3.9%-5.1%
Q3 2022+4.3%+11.5%+13.4%
Q2 2022+12.3%+15.1%+5.3%
Q1 2022+0.1%-14.0%-22.6%
Q4 2021-6.9%-0.3%+5.2%
Q3 2021+13.6%+16.7%+6.5%
Q2 2021+2.5%+2.5%-4.7%
Q1 2021-3.2%+1.1%+7.3%
Q1 2020-3.2%+1.1%+7.3%
Q4 2020-14.1%-20.5%+2.6%
Q4 2018-14.1%-20.5%+2.6%
Q3 2020-14.7%-15.7%-26.3%
Q3 2019-14.7%-15.7%-26.3%
Q2 2020-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q4 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q2 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q1 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%

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