NASDAQ$VITL

Vital Farms Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vital Farms achieved record net revenue and significant gains in household penetration.

Vital Farms reported a strong Q4 2022 with net revenue reaching a record $110.1 million, a 42.2% increase compared to the prior year. The company also saw a substantial increase in household penetration, growing the number of households purchasing Vital Farms products by over 45% to 10.5 million. Net income for the quarter was $1.9 million, compared to a net loss of $3.6 million in the prior year quarter.

  • Net revenue increased by 42.2% to $110.1 million compared to Q4 2021.
  • Gross profit was $33.3 million, representing 30.3% of net revenue.
  • Income from operations was $3.4 million, compared to a loss from operations of $4.2 million in the prior year quarter.
  • Net income was $1.9 million, compared to a net loss of $3.6 million in the prior year quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$110M

Previous: $77.4M+42.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.04

Previous: -$0.09+144.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$6.9M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$3.57M

Previous: $2.52M+41.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$8.3M

Previous: $1.54M-639.7%
Net Income

$1.9M

Previous: -$3.65M+152.0%
Operating Income

$3.4M

Previous: -$4.24M+180.2%
Gross Profit

$33.3M

Previous: $19.8M+68.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$12.9M

Previous: $31M-58.3%
Total Assets

$215M

Previous: $190M+13.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.54M

Previous: $1.25M+23.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Vital Farms · Revenue · Quarterly

$110M

Q4 2022+42.2%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Vital Farms expects net revenue of more than $450 million and Adjusted EBITDA of more than $30 million for the full fiscal year 2023. Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2023 are expected to be in the range of $25 to $30 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net revenue of more than $450 million is expected for fiscal year 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of more than $30 million is expected for fiscal year 2023.
  • Company is well positioned to further its progress toward its long-term top line objectives.
  • Company is well positioned to meet its profitability goal of low double-digit Adjusted EBITDA Margin.
  • Guidance assumes no additional significant disruptions to the supply chain or its customers or consumers.

Headwinds

  • Guidance is subject to risks and uncertainties.
  • Adverse macroeconomic factors could impact the company's performance.
  • Inability to provide a reconciliation between forecasted Adjusted EBITDA and net income without unreasonable effort.
  • Unavailability of reliable estimates for income taxes.
  • These items are not within our control and may vary greatly between periods.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

12 / 29 earnings

Positive

+21.7%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-20.8%

Q1 2027

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027-20.8%-28.2%-16.3%
Q4 2025-10.9%-18.1%-47.0%
Q3 2025+16.6%+7.8%-2.2%
Q1 2025-9.3%-4.9%-14.0%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.1%-12.3%
Q3 2024-16.2%-22.9%-3.9%
Q2 2024-12.2%-12.0%-15.7%
Q1 2024+21.7%+23.7%+39.9%
Q4 2023+7.9%+10.5%+33.8%
Q3 2023+2.7%+5.9%+22.6%
Q2 2023+17.6%+15.6%+12.5%
Q1 2023+18.6%+20.4%+13.2%
Q4 2022+1.0%-3.9%-5.1%
Q3 2022+4.3%+11.5%+13.4%
Q2 2022+12.3%+15.1%+5.3%
Q1 2022+0.1%-14.0%-22.6%
Q4 2021-6.9%-0.3%+5.2%
Q3 2021+13.6%+16.7%+6.5%
Q2 2021+2.5%+2.5%-4.7%
Q1 2021-3.2%+1.1%+7.3%
Q1 2020-3.2%+1.1%+7.3%
Q4 2020-14.1%-20.5%+2.6%
Q4 2018-14.1%-20.5%+2.6%
Q3 2020-14.7%-15.7%-26.3%
Q3 2019-14.7%-15.7%-26.3%
Q2 2020-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q4 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q2 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%
Q1 2019-4.8%+1.2%+9.3%

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