NASDAQ$SPSC

SPS Commerce Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

SPS Commerce reported its 76th consecutive quarter of topline growth, driven by a 14% increase in recurring revenue compared to 2018.

SPS Commerce announced strong Q4 2019 results, with a 12% increase in revenue to $72.7 million and a 13% growth in recurring revenue. Net income rose to $9.2 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, while non-GAAP net income per diluted share reached $0.35. The company's adjusted EBITDA increased by 35% to $18.9 million.

  • Revenue for Q4 2019 reached $72.7 million, a 12% increase compared to Q4 2018.
  • Recurring revenue grew by 13% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • Net income for Q4 2019 was $9.2 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, compared to $7.1 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, in Q4 2018.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2019 increased 35% to $18.9 million compared to Q4 2018.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$72.7M

Previous: $65.2M+11.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.35

Previous: $0.27+29.6%
Capital Expenditures

$5.2M

Previous: $3.88M+34.1%
Free Cash Flow

$15.6M

Previous: $13.6M+15.0%
Net Income

$9.2M

Previous: $7.14M+28.8%
Operating Income

$10.8M

Previous: $8.21M+31.1%
Gross Profit

$48.8M

Previous: $44M+10.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$179M

Previous: $134M+33.9%
Total Assets

$447M

Previous: $386M+15.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.37M

Previous: $2.53M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

SPS Commerce · Revenue · Quarterly

$72.7M

Q4 2019+11.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

SPS Commerce · $72.7M total across 1 segment · Q4 2019

  • Recurring Revenue
    $72.7M

Forward guidance

SPS Commerce provided guidance for Q1 2020 and full year 2020, expecting revenue to be in the range of $73.6 million to $74.2 million for Q1 and $306.5 million to $308.5 million for the full year. Net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $0.19 to $0.20 for Q1 and $0.85 to $0.88 for the full year. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $0.31 to $0.32 for Q1 and $1.34 to $1.37 for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $19.2 to $19.8 million for Q1 and $83.0 million to $84.5 million for the full year.

Tailwinds

  • First quarter 2020 revenue is expected to be in the range of $73.6 million to $74.2 million.
  • Full year 2020 revenue is expected to be in the range of $306.5 million to $308.5 million, representing approximately 10% to 11% growth over 2019.
  • First quarter 2020 net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $0.19 to $0.20.
  • Full year 2020 net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $0.85 to $0.88.
  • First quarter 2020 non-GAAP net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $0.31 to $0.32.

Headwinds

  • Full year 2020 non-GAAP net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $1.34 to $1.37.
  • First quarter 2020 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $19.2 to $19.8 million.
  • Full year 2020 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $83.0 million to $84.5 million, representing approximately 19% to 21% growth over 2019.
  • First quarter 2020 non-cash, share-based compensation expense is expected to be approximately $4.6 million.
  • For 2020, we expect an annual effective tax rate of approximately 30%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

40 / 65 earnings

Positive

+18.5%

Q2 2013

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.5%-0.4%+1.1%
Q4 2025-4.4%-9.8%-6.5%
Q3 2025-20.3%-21.8%-19.8%
Q1 2025-0.9%+3.2%+2.8%
Q4 2024-13.8%-17.5%-30.5%
Q3 2024-10.2%-8.9%-0.3%
Q2 2024+1.8%+1.1%-3.4%
Q1 2024+4.6%+1.6%+13.3%
Q4 2023+15.6%+5.8%+1.1%
Q3 2023-1.4%+2.5%+12.0%
Q2 2023-0.3%+0.1%+2.6%
Q1 2023+4.2%+4.9%+14.8%
Q4 2022+6.0%+9.7%+3.0%
Q3 2022+0.7%-1.7%+3.1%
Q2 2022+4.9%+10.8%+10.3%
Q1 2022+1.3%+1.2%-8.2%
Q4 2021+3.4%+2.9%-1.8%
Q3 2021-9.1%-13.2%-16.3%
Q2 2021+9.7%+12.6%+35.3%
Q1 2021+0.2%-4.0%-8.2%
Q4 2020+1.4%+1.7%-1.6%
Q3 2020-0.6%+0.8%+21.2%
Q2 2020+1.4%+1.7%+9.1%
Q1 2020-0.2%+2.7%+25.2%
Q4 2019+3.6%+4.5%-22.6%
Q3 2019+9.8%+9.5%+17.8%
Q2 2019+9.8%+9.7%-3.9%
Q1 2019+4.8%+1.5%-0.8%
Q4 2018+15.4%+18.0%+16.3%
Q3 2018+16.0%+13.3%+2.0%
Q2 2018+10.9%+11.0%+25.8%
Q1 2018+5.9%+8.9%+12.9%
Q4 2017+9.6%+6.2%+24.4%
Q3 2017-14.5%-13.7%-11.7%
Q2 2017+0.2%-0.8%+1.0%
Q1 2017-0.3%+1.0%+5.6%
Q4 2016-19.3%-14.0%-19.2%
Q3 2016-9.7%-10.2%-2.5%
Q2 2016+3.9%+3.0%+7.5%
Q1 2016+7.9%
Q4 2015-21.7%
Q3 2015+0.6%
Q2 2015-1.6%
Q1 2015+1.1%
Q4 2014+9.6%
Q3 2014-0.6%
Q2 2014-2.9%
Q1 2014-7.2%
Q4 2013+4.0%
Q3 2013+5.3%
Q2 2013+18.5%
Q1 2013+11.4%
Q4 2012+0.1%
Q3 2012-9.8%
Q2 2012+11.6%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q1 2012-2.9%
Q4 2011+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.3%
Q2 2010-2.0%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q3 2010+2.7%
Q1 2010-0.3%

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