NASDAQ$PAYX

Paychex Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Paychex reported solid financial results, with revenue growth and operating margin expansion.

Paychex reported a 5% increase in total revenue to $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter. Diluted earnings per share increased by 8% to $1.05, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 15% to $1.12. The company's performance reflects its ability to navigate changing market conditions and deliver value to clients through innovative HR technology and advisory solutions.

  • Total revenue increased by 5% to $1.3 billion, driven by growth in Management Solutions and PEO & Insurance Solutions, partially offset by a lower contribution from ERTC service.
  • Management Solutions revenue grew by 3% to $930.3 million, driven by client growth and higher product penetration.
  • PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased by 9% to $326.6 million, driven by growth in average PEO worksite employees and increased insurance revenues.
  • Operating income grew by 6% to $481.8 million, with an operating margin of 37.2%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.3B

Previous: $1.23B+5.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.12

Previous: $0.97+15.5%
Operating Margin

37.2%

Previous: 36.9%+0.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin

40.2%

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Income

$521M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$45.6M

Previous: $46M-199.1%
Net Income

$380M

Previous: $350M+8.4%
Operating Income

$482M

Previous: $453M+6.3%
Gross Profit

$920M

Previous: $860M+7.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$16M

Previous: $16.6M-3.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Paychex · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.3B

Q4 2024+5.3%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Paychex · $1.26B total across 3 segments · Q2 2024

  • Management Solutions
    $931M+4.0%
  • PEO and Insurance Solutions
    $296M+8.2%
  • Interest on Client Funds
    $31.5M+45.2%

Forward guidance

Paychex anticipates total revenue growth in the range of 4.0% to 5.5% and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in the range of 5% to 7% for fiscal year 2025.

Tailwinds

  • Total revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 4.0% to 5.5%.
  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share is anticipated to grow in the range of 5% to 7%.
  • Management Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 3.0% to 4.0%.
  • PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 7.0% to 9.0%.
  • Operating margin is anticipated to be in the range of 42% to 43%.

Headwinds

  • Changes in the macroeconomic environment could alter our guidance.
  • Small and mid-size businesses continue to face a challenging operating environment due to complex regulations.
  • Small and mid-size businesses continue to face a tight labor market.
  • Small and mid-size businesses continue to face inflationary pressures.
  • The effective income tax rate for fiscal 2025 is anticipated to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

26 / 72 earnings

Positive

+10.2%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-6.3%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-0.5%+2.7%
Q2 2026-1.7%+0.3%-2.7%
Q1 2026-1.3%-3.0%-8.8%
Q4 2025-2.5%-0.6%-4.7%
Q3 2025+4.2%+7.0%-0.6%
Q2 2025+2.7%+4.1%+7.7%
Q1 2025+4.9%+3.3%+3.8%
Q4 2024-5.8%-6.4%+0.6%
Q3 2024-1.1%+0.6%-2.6%
Q2 2024-6.3%-6.0%-4.5%
Q1 2024+3.9%+0.9%-2.8%
Q4 2023+1.0%+0.7%+14.3%
Q3 2023+4.2%+2.2%+0.8%
Q2 2023+1.1%+0.3%+2.8%
Q1 2023+0.1%+1.4%+5.7%
Q4 2022-5.0%-2.9%+7.0%
Q3 2022+3.0%+5.1%-4.4%
Q2 2022+6.2%+7.3%-6.1%
Q1 2022+6.8%+8.3%+14.3%
Q4 2021+2.5%+2.9%+7.6%
Q3 2021-5.5%-4.0%+1.2%
Q2 2021-2.0%-2.4%-10.1%
Q1 2021-1.1%+1.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020-4.2%-5.8%-6.7%
Q3 2020+10.2%+8.2%+14.3%
Q2 2020-0.2%-0.4%+3.6%
Q1 2020+0.8%+1.3%+2.4%
Q4 2019-3.2%-1.5%+2.1%
Q3 2019-1.3%+1.0%+4.6%
Q2 2019+1.0%-4.2%+8.7%
Q1 2019-0.7%-1.1%-11.8%
Q4 2018-1.5%-1.4%+2.8%
Q3 2018-3.1%-0.2%-2.8%
Q2 2018-1.3%-0.5%+0.4%
Q1 2018+4.7%+6.4%+7.9%
Q4 2017-3.3%-3.6%-1.5%
Q3 2017-2.4%-3.5%-2.1%
Q2 2017-0.7%-0.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017-5.2%-4.7%-8.7%
Q4 2016+5.9%+7.0%+5.6%
Q3 2016-0.9%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016+4.6%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-4.5%
Q2 2015-1.5%
Q1 2015+3.0%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014+4.7%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013-2.7%
Q3 2013+0.6%
Q2 2013-2.3%
Q1 2013-3.3%
Q4 2012-2.5%
Q3 2012-2.3%
Q2 2012-0.5%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-3.6%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q2 2011-1.1%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q4 2008-1.8%
Q4 2010-1.8%
Q3 2009-5.2%
Q3 2010-5.2%
Q2 2010-3.0%
Q1 2009-5.1%
Q1 2010-5.1%
Q4 2009-5.1%
Q2 2009-5.1%

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