NASDAQ$NXST

Nexstar Media Group Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Nexstar's Q4 2023 financial results outperformed expectations with strong free cash flow generation and shareholder returns.

Nexstar Media Group reported Q4 2023 net revenue of $1.3 billion, operating income of $230 million, net income of $100 million, adjusted EBITDA of $411 million, and attributable free cash flow of $265 million. The company successfully renewed distribution agreements and managed shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.

  • Net revenue was $1.3 billion, a decrease compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to a decline in political advertising revenue.
  • Adjusted EBITDA reached $411 million with a 31.5% margin.
  • Attributable free cash flow was $265 million.
  • The company returned $137 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividend payments.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.3B

Previous: $1.49B-12.3%
EPS (adj)

$3.32

Previous: $5.30-37.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$411M

Previous: $598M-31.3%
Political Advertising Revenue

$30M

Previous: $266M-88.7%
Capital Expenditures

$36M

Previous: $57.3M-37.2%
Net Income

$100M

Previous: $178M-43.9%
Operating Income

$230M

Previous: $294M-21.8%
Gross Profit

$554M

Previous: $985M-43.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$16M

Previous: $18.2M-12.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Nexstar · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.3B

Q4 2023-12.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Nexstar · $598M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Distribution
    $598M-6.8%

Forward guidance

Nexstar is establishing guidance for fiscal year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $2.085 billion to $2.195 billion.

Tailwinds

  • Potential increase in political fundraising and spend on television advertising.
  • Favorable renegotiation of affiliation agreements.
  • Growth in virtual MVPD revenue.
  • Successful renewal of distribution agreements.
  • Benefits from exclusive broadcast rights for sports and entertainment content.

Headwinds

  • Changes in national and regional economies.
  • Ability to service and refinance outstanding debt.
  • Pricing fluctuations in local and national advertising.
  • Competition from others in the broadcast television markets.
  • Volatility in programming costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

38 / 64 earnings

Positive

+11.5%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-10.3%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.5%-0.0%-7.8%
Q4 2025+5.5%+4.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-3.4%-0.7%-3.7%
Q1 2025+5.4%+11.9%+8.4%
Q4 2024+11.1%+16.0%+20.6%
Q3 2024-9.4%-8.2%-7.1%
Q2 2024-7.9%-8.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+2.5%+6.9%-6.9%
Q4 2023+2.3%-3.9%+6.1%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023-10.3%-10.5%-27.4%
Q1 2023-3.6%-3.7%+1.4%
Q4 2022-3.2%-4.9%-11.5%
Q3 2022+2.5%+8.5%+17.4%
Q2 2022+1.9%+3.1%+0.5%
Q1 2022+6.2%+12.9%+12.6%
Q4 2021-3.2%+1.9%+8.2%
Q3 2021+6.1%+8.6%+0.1%
Q2 2021+3.3%+1.6%+0.6%
Q1 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.2%
Q4 2020+8.1%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2020+5.6%+15.8%+35.3%
Q2 2020-0.3%-0.3%+6.8%
Q1 2020+11.5%+18.8%+53.1%
Q4 2019-1.8%+1.3%-45.1%
Q3 2019+5.0%+11.6%+12.3%
Q2 2019-0.3%-0.1%+2.5%
Q1 2019+0.3%-3.4%-10.5%
Q4 2018+5.1%+11.8%+21.6%
Q3 2018-2.6%-3.3%+2.5%
Q2 2018+1.0%+0.6%+4.3%
Q1 2018+1.9%+6.6%+13.2%
Q4 2017-3.1%-1.5%-9.8%
Q3 2017+3.5%+4.1%+12.9%
Q2 2017+3.0%+2.9%-5.1%
Q1 2017+0.5%-3.4%-2.0%
Q4 2016+4.2%+3.0%+0.2%
Q3 2016+4.9%+20.7%+34.5%
Q2 2016-3.1%+1.4%+3.2%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015+1.0%
Q2 2015+0.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q3 2014+4.8%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2014-4.0%
Q4 2013-3.9%
Q3 2013-1.3%
Q2 2013-5.1%
Q1 2013+6.7%
Q4 2012+4.9%
Q3 2012+1.9%
Q2 2012+2.5%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q1 2012+0.9%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q2 2011-0.5%
Q3 2011-1.5%
Q4 2010+7.8%
Q3 2010-6.9%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010-2.0%

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