NASDAQ$NXST

Nexstar Media Group Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Nexstar reported record fourth-quarter results, driven by substantial increases in political advertising revenue and distribution fee revenue, as well as strategic cost-cutting measures.

Nexstar Media Group reported record fourth-quarter net revenue of $1.377 billion, a 25.1% increase year-over-year. The company achieved record operating income, net income, Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. Nexstar allocated $224.3 million toward leverage reduction and repurchased $84.3 million of Class A common shares. They also initiated pro-forma average annual free cash flow guidance for the 2021/2022 cycle of $1.27 billion.

  • Nexstar's Q4 net revenue increased by 25.1% year-over-year to $1.4 billion.
  • The company's adjusted EBITDA grew by 73.3% and free cash flow increased by 154.9% compared to the prior year.
  • Political advertising revenue saw a significant rise, contributing to overall revenue growth.
  • Nexstar is reinstating guidance and expects to generate pro-forma average annual free cash flow of approximately $1.27 billion over the 2021/2022 cycle.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.38B

Previous: $1.1B+25.2%
EPS (adj)

$7.97

Previous: $2.36+237.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$657M

Previous: $379M+73.3%
Political Advertising Revenue

$298M

Previous: $36.5M+716.6%
Capital Expenditures

$46.9M

Previous: $87.3M-46.3%
Free Cash Flow

$443M

Previous: $174M+154.9%
Net Income

$363M

Previous: $114M+218.8%
Operating Income

$531M

Previous: $256M+106.8%
Gross Profit

$945M

Previous: $668M+41.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$153M

Previous: $232M-34.2%
Total Assets

$13.4B

Previous: $14B-4.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$12.4M

Previous: $9.59M+28.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Nexstar · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.38B

Q4 2020+25.2%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Nexstar · $528M total across 1 segment · Q4 2020

  • Distribution
    $528M+18.4%

Forward guidance

Nexstar expects to generate pro-forma average annual free cash flow of approximately $1.27 billion over the 2021/2022 cycle.

Tailwinds

  • Improving economic trends
  • Continued double-digit growth of distribution revenue
  • Spending related to the return of high-profile events including the NCAA basketball tournament
  • Spending related to the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games
  • Excellent visibility to delivering on or exceeding our free cash flow targets

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

38 / 64 earnings

Positive

+11.5%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-10.3%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.5%-0.0%-7.8%
Q4 2025+5.5%+4.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-3.4%-0.7%-3.7%
Q1 2025+5.4%+11.9%+8.4%
Q4 2024+11.1%+16.0%+20.6%
Q3 2024-9.4%-8.2%-7.1%
Q2 2024-7.9%-8.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+2.5%+6.9%-6.9%
Q4 2023+2.3%-3.9%+6.1%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023-10.3%-10.5%-27.4%
Q1 2023-3.6%-3.7%+1.4%
Q4 2022-3.2%-4.9%-11.5%
Q3 2022+2.5%+8.5%+17.4%
Q2 2022+1.9%+3.1%+0.5%
Q1 2022+6.2%+12.9%+12.6%
Q4 2021-3.2%+1.9%+8.2%
Q3 2021+6.1%+8.6%+0.1%
Q2 2021+3.3%+1.6%+0.6%
Q1 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.2%
Q4 2020+8.1%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2020+5.6%+15.8%+35.3%
Q2 2020-0.3%-0.3%+6.8%
Q1 2020+11.5%+18.8%+53.1%
Q4 2019-1.8%+1.3%-45.1%
Q3 2019+5.0%+11.6%+12.3%
Q2 2019-0.3%-0.1%+2.5%
Q1 2019+0.3%-3.4%-10.5%
Q4 2018+5.1%+11.8%+21.6%
Q3 2018-2.6%-3.3%+2.5%
Q2 2018+1.0%+0.6%+4.3%
Q1 2018+1.9%+6.6%+13.2%
Q4 2017-3.1%-1.5%-9.8%
Q3 2017+3.5%+4.1%+12.9%
Q2 2017+3.0%+2.9%-5.1%
Q1 2017+0.5%-3.4%-2.0%
Q4 2016+4.2%+3.0%+0.2%
Q3 2016+4.9%+20.7%+34.5%
Q2 2016-3.1%+1.4%+3.2%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015+1.0%
Q2 2015+0.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q3 2014+4.8%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2014-4.0%
Q4 2013-3.9%
Q3 2013-1.3%
Q2 2013-5.1%
Q1 2013+6.7%
Q4 2012+4.9%
Q3 2012+1.9%
Q2 2012+2.5%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q1 2012+0.9%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q2 2011-0.5%
Q3 2011-1.5%
Q4 2010+7.8%
Q3 2010-6.9%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010-2.0%

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