NASDAQ$NTRA

Natera Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong volume growth, consistent average selling price expansion, and reduced cost of goods sold per unit in its reproductive health business.

Natera reported a 24% increase in total revenues for Q4 2019, driven by sales of Panorama and Horizon tests. The company processed 209,400 tests, with 198,300 accessioned in its laboratory, and recognized revenue on 200,800 tests reported, including 189,700 tests accessioned in its laboratory.

  • Total revenues increased by 24% compared to Q4 2018.
  • Processed 209,400 tests in Q4 2019, a 20% increase year-over-year.
  • Gross profit for Q4 2019 was $38.8 million, representing a 47% gross margin.
  • Net loss for Q4 2019 was $35.2 million, or ($0.46) per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$83.2M

Previous: $67M+24.2%
EPS (adj)

-$0.46

Previous: -$0.51+9.8%
Tests processed

209.4K

Previous: 174.2K+20.2%
Tests accessioned

198.3K

Previous: 162.9K+21.7%
Tests reported

200.8K

Previous: 172.5K+16.4%
Tests reported (lab)

189.7K

Previous: 162.5K+16.7%
Capital Expenditures

$2.41M

Previous: $2.11M+14.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$17.5M

Previous: -$14.9M-17.1%
Net Income

-$35.2M

Previous: -$31.8M-10.5%
Operating Income

-$34.8M

Previous: -$29.7M-17.1%
Gross Profit

$38.8M

Previous: $24.2M+60.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$441M

Previous: $46.4M+850.3%
Total Assets

$441M

Previous: $268M+64.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.52M

Previous: $4.06M+109.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Natera · Revenue · Quarterly

$83.2M

Q4 2019+24.2%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Natera · $33.9M total across 1 segment · Q1 2021

  • Licensing and other revenues
    $33.9M

Forward guidance

Natera anticipates 2020 total revenue of $335 million to $350 million; 2020 cost of revenues to be approximately 51% to 57% of revenues; selling, general and administrative costs to be approximately $240 million to $260 million; research and development costs to be $80 million to $90 million, and net cash burn to be $125 million to $150 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+4.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.0%

Avg return

30 days after

69%

31 / 45 earnings

Positive

+29.1%

Q2 2017

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.0%-5.2%+0.0%
Q4 2025-3.8%-6.0%-15.5%
Q3 2025+0.7%+5.6%+23.2%
Q1 2025-6.9%-6.9%+0.7%
Q4 2024-0.7%-5.5%-8.1%
Q3 2024+20.2%+9.0%+24.2%
Q2 2024+14.2%+18.6%+12.5%
Q1 2024+10.1%+10.3%+16.2%
Q4 2023+13.6%+18.4%+20.1%
Q3 2023+4.0%+11.2%+33.2%
Q2 2023+16.1%+20.0%+42.3%
Q1 2023-3.6%-3.8%-8.1%
Q4 2022+14.1%+22.2%+14.1%
Q3 2022-13.2%-5.3%-9.2%
Q2 2022+5.1%+3.7%-2.7%
Q1 2022-2.0%-18.5%+0.5%
Q4 2021+10.2%+5.9%-34.7%
Q3 2021+3.6%+1.2%-22.7%
Q2 2021+2.4%-7.7%+8.1%
Q1 2021-2.9%-14.0%-7.1%
Q4 2020+2.9%+4.6%-17.0%
Q3 2020+9.3%+2.3%+16.5%
Q2 2020+11.8%+4.0%+31.2%
Q1 2020+19.8%+28.3%+11.6%
Q4 2019+6.4%+5.6%-27.3%
Q3 2019-3.7%+0.3%-1.3%
Q2 2019+19.3%+9.6%+19.8%
Q1 2019+19.8%+26.8%+34.3%
Q4 2018+19.6%+16.9%+22.9%
Q3 2018-21.2%-25.2%-20.4%
Q2 2018+0.2%+5.2%+8.4%
Q1 2018+1.4%-0.9%+3.6%
Q4 2017+0.3%+17.3%+10.1%
Q3 2017-12.8%-13.4%-11.9%
Q2 2017+29.1%+32.4%+64.0%
Q1 2017+13.8%+11.5%+7.1%
Q4 2016-14.8%-15.9%-10.8%
Q3 2016+12.0%+25.5%+26.8%
Q2 2016-5.8%-17.2%-21.3%
Q1 2016+15.4%
Q1 2014+0.1%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2014+2.7%
Q3 2015+7.0%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q1 2013

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