NASDAQ$LOCO

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

El Pollo Loco's financial performance declined in Q4 2023, with revenue and net income decreasing compared to the same period last year, but system-wide comparable restaurant sales increased slightly.

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. reported a decrease in total revenue to $112.2 million compared to $115.9 million in Q4 2022. Net income also decreased to $4.4 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, from $6.5 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, in the prior year. However, system-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 0.9%. The company's restaurant contribution was $14.8 million, representing 15.8% of company-operated restaurant revenue.

  • Total revenue decreased to $112.2 million from $115.9 million.
  • System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 0.9%.
  • Net income decreased to $4.4 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, from $6.5 million, or $0.18 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $13.6 million from $13.3 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$112M

Previous: $116M-3.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.16

Previous: $0.16+0.0%
Capital Expenditures

$6.04M

Previous: $6.9M-12.5%
Net Income

$4.4M

Previous: $6.5M-32.3%
Operating Income

$8.16M

Previous: $9.5M-14.1%
Gross Profit

$29M

Previous: $22.1M+31.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$425K

Previous: $685K-38.0%

Revenue & EPS history

El Pollo Loco · Revenue · Quarterly

$112M

Q4 2023-3.2%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

El Pollo Loco · $121M total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Company-operated restaurants
    $104M+55266389.4%
  • Franchise revenue
    $10.1M+0.5%
  • Franchise advertising fee revenue
    $7.47M-1.6%

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following expectations for the remainder of 2024:

Tailwinds

  • The opening of two new company-owned restaurants
  • The opening of five to seven new franchised restaurants.

Headwinds

  • Capital spend of $25.0 - $28.0 million.
  • G&A expense between $45.0 and $47.0 million.
  • Adjusted income tax rate of 27.0 – 28.0%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

25 / 52 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-2.7%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.8%+27.8%+27.6%
Q3 2025+13.6%+17.4%+20.4%
Q1 2025-3.8%-5.8%+11.3%
Q4 2024-0.1%-1.1%-12.5%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.9%+1.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-2.2%+14.9%
Q1 2024+18.6%+21.0%+26.5%
Q4 2023-3.3%-4.2%+1.4%
Q3 2023+2.7%-1.6%+0.6%
Q2 2023+2.4%+5.9%-5.5%
Q1 2023-6.5%-8.0%-5.8%
Q4 2022-10.3%-6.8%-26.0%
Q3 2022+11.1%+11.3%+8.7%
Q2 2022-7.4%-7.3%-11.5%
Q1 2022+0.9%-2.8%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.3%-14.7%-12.1%
Q3 2021+4.0%+2.1%-14.9%
Q2 2021+1.8%-1.0%-1.5%
Q1 2021+4.6%+3.4%+0.0%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.2%-15.4%
Q3 2020-18.4%-15.1%-8.6%
Q2 2020+16.0%+1.2%+7.3%
Q1 2020+10.3%+0.7%+12.1%
Q4 2019-12.4%-21.2%-41.5%
Q3 2019+27.8%+29.6%+37.3%
Q2 2019+12.8%+11.8%+3.8%
Q1 2019-10.1%-12.5%-20.1%
Q4 2018-16.2%-13.8%-15.2%
Q3 2018+23.3%+31.7%+22.1%
Q2 2018+0.0%-0.4%+4.4%
Q1 2018+6.6%+6.1%+8.7%
Q4 2017+7.3%+10.9%-0.5%
Q3 2017-13.7%-15.0%-8.8%
Q2 2017-8.7%-9.1%-13.2%
Q1 2017+12.1%+12.5%+10.9%
Q4 2016-6.4%-7.6%+4.2%
Q3 2016-9.6%-10.8%+4.6%
Q2 2016+2.7%+3.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016-16.9%
Q4 2015-6.8%
Q3 2015-15.6%
Q2 2015-18.4%
Q1 2014-16.5%
Q1 2015-12.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q4 2014+15.5%
Q3 2013-1.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2013+2.1%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+5.4%
Q1 2013

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