NASDAQ$LOCO

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

El Pollo Loco reported Q4 2019 financial results, showing increased revenue and net income compared to the previous year.

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. announced positive financial results for the fourth quarter of 2019, with total revenue increasing to $107.5 million and system-wide comparable restaurant sales growing by 3.9%. Net income turned positive at $3.5 million, a significant improvement from the net loss of $23.4 million in the same period last year. The company's performance was driven by factors such as culinary innovation, successful promotions, and expansion of delivery capabilities.

  • Total revenue increased to $107.5 million from $106.3 million.
  • System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 3.9%.
  • Net income was $3.5 million, a significant improvement from the previous year's net loss of $23.4 million.
  • Pro forma net income was $6.2 million, or $0.18 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$108M

Previous: $106M+1.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.18

Previous: $0.16+12.5%
System-wide comparable sales

3.9%

Previous: 0.0%
Company-operated comparable sales

4.3%

No prior period
Franchised comparable sales

3.6%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$4.59M

Previous: $7.09M-35.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$351K

Previous: -$3.25M+89.2%
Net Income

$3.5M

Previous: -$23.4M+114.9%
Operating Income

$5.34M

Previous: -$31M+117.2%
Gross Profit

$23.4M

Previous: $23.3M+0.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$8.07M

Previous: $6.97M+15.8%
Total Assets

$625M

Previous: $450M+38.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$677K

Previous: $458K+47.8%

Revenue & EPS history

El Pollo Loco · Revenue · Quarterly

$108M

Q4 2019+1.2%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

El Pollo Loco · $121M total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Company-operated restaurants
    $104M+55266389.4%
  • Franchise revenue
    $10.1M+0.5%
  • Franchise advertising fee revenue
    $7.47M-1.6%

Forward guidance

El Pollo Loco provided earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020, expecting pro forma diluted net income per share ranging from $0.75 to $0.80.

Tailwinds

  • System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of approximately 2.0% to 4.0%
  • The opening of 3-4 new company-owned restaurants and 5-8 new franchised restaurants
  • Restaurant contribution margin of 18.0% to 18.7%
  • G&A expenses of between 8.5% and 8.8% of total revenue excluding legal fees related to securities related litigation
  • Pro forma income tax rate of 26.5%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

25 / 52 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-2.7%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.8%+27.8%+27.6%
Q3 2025+13.6%+17.4%+20.4%
Q1 2025-3.8%-5.8%+11.3%
Q4 2024-0.1%-1.1%-12.5%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.9%+1.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-2.2%+14.9%
Q1 2024+18.6%+21.0%+26.5%
Q4 2023-3.3%-4.2%+1.4%
Q3 2023+2.7%-1.6%+0.6%
Q2 2023+2.4%+5.9%-5.5%
Q1 2023-6.5%-8.0%-5.8%
Q4 2022-10.3%-6.8%-26.0%
Q3 2022+11.1%+11.3%+8.7%
Q2 2022-7.4%-7.3%-11.5%
Q1 2022+0.9%-2.8%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.3%-14.7%-12.1%
Q3 2021+4.0%+2.1%-14.9%
Q2 2021+1.8%-1.0%-1.5%
Q1 2021+4.6%+3.4%+0.0%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.2%-15.4%
Q3 2020-18.4%-15.1%-8.6%
Q2 2020+16.0%+1.2%+7.3%
Q1 2020+10.3%+0.7%+12.1%
Q4 2019-12.4%-21.2%-41.5%
Q3 2019+27.8%+29.6%+37.3%
Q2 2019+12.8%+11.8%+3.8%
Q1 2019-10.1%-12.5%-20.1%
Q4 2018-16.2%-13.8%-15.2%
Q3 2018+23.3%+31.7%+22.1%
Q2 2018+0.0%-0.4%+4.4%
Q1 2018+6.6%+6.1%+8.7%
Q4 2017+7.3%+10.9%-0.5%
Q3 2017-13.7%-15.0%-8.8%
Q2 2017-8.7%-9.1%-13.2%
Q1 2017+12.1%+12.5%+10.9%
Q4 2016-6.4%-7.6%+4.2%
Q3 2016-9.6%-10.8%+4.6%
Q2 2016+2.7%+3.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016-16.9%
Q4 2015-6.8%
Q3 2015-15.6%
Q2 2015-18.4%
Q1 2014-16.5%
Q1 2015-12.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q4 2014+15.5%
Q3 2013-1.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2013+2.1%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+5.4%
Q1 2013

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