NASDAQ$LOCO

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

El Pollo Loco's Q3 2023 performance was marked by increased total revenue, system-wide comparable restaurant sales, income from operations, and net income, as well as the approval of a new $20 million share repurchase program.

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of 2023, with total revenue increasing to $120.4 million compared to $119.9 million in the same period last year. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 0.8%, and net income rose to $9.2 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, compared to $5.0 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2022.

  • Total revenue increased to $120.4 million from $119.9 million year-over-year.
  • System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 0.8%.
  • Net income increased to $9.2 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, from $5.0 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, year-over-year.
  • The company approved a new $20 million share repurchase program.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$120M

Previous: $120M+0.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.19

Previous: $0.14+35.7%
Restaurant contribution margin

14.4%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$15M

Previous: $11.6M+29.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$15.3M

Previous: -$13M-17.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$6.07M

Previous: -$8.01M+24.3%
Net Income

$9.23M

Previous: $5.01M+84.2%
Operating Income

$13.7M

Previous: $6.86M+99.5%
Gross Profit

-$59.3M

Previous: -$62.2M+4.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$13.8M

Previous: $19.3M-28.3%
Total Assets

$593M

Previous: $602M-1.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$926K

Previous: $1.01M-8.3%

Revenue & EPS history

El Pollo Loco · Revenue · Quarterly

$120M

Q3 2023+0.4%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

El Pollo Loco · $121M total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Company-operated restaurants
    $104M+55266389.4%
  • Franchise revenue
    $10.1M+0.5%
  • Franchise advertising fee revenue
    $7.47M-1.6%

Forward guidance

El Pollo Loco provided the following expectations for the remainder of 2023:

Tailwinds

  • The opening of two new company-owned restaurants
  • The opening of three to four new franchised restaurants.

Headwinds

  • Capital spend of $22.0 - $24.0 million.
  • G&A expense between $41.0 and $43.0 million.
  • Adjusted income tax rate of 26.5 – 27.5%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

25 / 52 earnings

Positive

+27.8%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-2.7%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.8%+27.8%+27.6%
Q3 2025+13.6%+17.4%+20.4%
Q1 2025-3.8%-5.8%+11.3%
Q4 2024-0.1%-1.1%-12.5%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.9%+1.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-2.2%+14.9%
Q1 2024+18.6%+21.0%+26.5%
Q4 2023-3.3%-4.2%+1.4%
Q3 2023+2.7%-1.6%+0.6%
Q2 2023+2.4%+5.9%-5.5%
Q1 2023-6.5%-8.0%-5.8%
Q4 2022-10.3%-6.8%-26.0%
Q3 2022+11.1%+11.3%+8.7%
Q2 2022-7.4%-7.3%-11.5%
Q1 2022+0.9%-2.8%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.3%-14.7%-12.1%
Q3 2021+4.0%+2.1%-14.9%
Q2 2021+1.8%-1.0%-1.5%
Q1 2021+4.6%+3.4%+0.0%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.2%-15.4%
Q3 2020-18.4%-15.1%-8.6%
Q2 2020+16.0%+1.2%+7.3%
Q1 2020+10.3%+0.7%+12.1%
Q4 2019-12.4%-21.2%-41.5%
Q3 2019+27.8%+29.6%+37.3%
Q2 2019+12.8%+11.8%+3.8%
Q1 2019-10.1%-12.5%-20.1%
Q4 2018-16.2%-13.8%-15.2%
Q3 2018+23.3%+31.7%+22.1%
Q2 2018+0.0%-0.4%+4.4%
Q1 2018+6.6%+6.1%+8.7%
Q4 2017+7.3%+10.9%-0.5%
Q3 2017-13.7%-15.0%-8.8%
Q2 2017-8.7%-9.1%-13.2%
Q1 2017+12.1%+12.5%+10.9%
Q4 2016-6.4%-7.6%+4.2%
Q3 2016-9.6%-10.8%+4.6%
Q2 2016+2.7%+3.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016-16.9%
Q4 2015-6.8%
Q3 2015-15.6%
Q2 2015-18.4%
Q1 2014-16.5%
Q1 2015-12.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q4 2014+15.5%
Q3 2013-1.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2013+2.1%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+5.4%
Q1 2013

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