NASDAQ$FRPT

Freshpet Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Freshpet reported strong topline growth and advanced its operational improvement plan to drive margin expansion. The company reduced its 2022/2023 capital spending guidance and reiterated its full-year underlying guidance.

Freshpet reported a 40.7% increase in net sales to $151.3 million for the third quarter of 2022. However, the company experienced a net loss of $18.4 million, compared to a net loss of $2.1 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 million, down from $13.5 million in the prior year.

  • Net sales increased by 40.7% to $151.3 million.
  • Net loss was $18.4 million, compared to a net loss of $2.1 million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 million, compared to $13.5 million in the prior year.
  • The company is executing a plan to address cost challenges and improve margins.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$151M

Previous: $108M+40.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.39

Previous: -$0.05-680.0%
Gross Margin

29.4%

Previous: 38.6%-23.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$3.5M

Previous: $13.60+25735194.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$18.4M

Previous: -$2.07M-791.3%
Net Income

-$18.4M

Previous: -$2.07M-791.3%
Operating Income

-$15.9M

Previous: -$840K-1793.3%
Gross Profit

$44.5M

Previous: $41.5M+7.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$240M

Previous: $171M+40.7%
Total Assets

$1.17B

Previous: $758M+53.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.82M

Previous: $5.75M+36.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Freshpet · Revenue · Quarterly

$151M

Q3 2022+40.7%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For full year 2022, the Company reiterates its full year underlying guidance on Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales of >$575 million, an increase of ~35% from 2021
  • Adjusted EBITDA of >$15 million, which is changed from prior guidance only in that it does not add back approximately $29.0 million in plant start-up and $4.0 million of launch expenses for the full year that were added back under the former methodology of calculating Adjusted EBITDA; other than the altered calculation, there is no change in the underlying projected Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Capital expenditures for 2022 is now anticipated to be approximately $290 million, reflecting a reduction of $30 million from prior forecast.
  • The Company has also refined its 2023 capital expenditure outlook, which is now anticipated to be approximately $230 million, reflecting a reduction of approximately $70 million from prior forecast.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

67%

37 / 55 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q2 2016

Best reaction

-28.7%

Q3 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.7%-17.6%-17.4%
Q4 2025+5.5%+13.3%-19.3%
Q3 2025+11.3%+12.3%+26.4%
Q1 2025+3.7%+5.4%+7.0%
Q4 2024-18.5%-18.0%-33.6%
Q3 2024+13.4%+17.0%+17.0%
Q2 2024+4.1%+4.9%+13.8%
Q1 2024+10.1%+9.6%+20.0%
Q4 2023+17.7%+20.4%+25.8%
Q3 2023+16.5%+15.1%+24.4%
Q2 2023+8.5%+7.9%+1.3%
Q1 2023-1.5%-0.6%-5.8%
Q4 2022+1.8%+2.7%+6.1%
Q3 2022+7.1%+14.1%+10.2%
Q2 2022-12.2%-12.4%-28.4%
Q1 2022-11.2%-30.7%-27.7%
Q4 2021+17.4%+5.1%+12.2%
Q3 2021-16.8%-17.6%-28.3%
Q2 2021-3.9%-6.8%-11.2%
Q1 2021-5.1%-4.5%-6.1%
Q4 2020-9.8%-3.3%-10.4%
Q3 2020+9.5%+18.1%+17.0%
Q2 2020+9.1%+6.4%+18.8%
Q1 2020+5.8%+1.1%+5.8%
Q4 2019-9.0%-9.8%-13.9%
Q3 2019-0.5%+7.0%+6.0%
Q2 2019-17.8%-11.1%+8.9%
Q1 2019-0.4%+2.5%+2.1%
Q4 2018+4.1%+6.2%+12.1%
Q3 2018-4.7%+0.4%-11.7%
Q2 2018+6.8%+14.5%+28.2%
Q1 2018-3.5%+5.3%+19.4%
Q4 2017-8.6%-10.6%-20.0%
Q3 2017+7.6%+10.5%+20.3%
Q2 2017+1.8%-5.8%-0.9%
Q1 2017+12.2%+19.0%+33.8%
Q4 2016+15.8%+18.4%+16.3%
Q3 2016+2.9%-4.7%+5.3%
Q2 2016+22.0%+26.1%+17.7%
Q1 2016+4.7%
Q4 2015+9.9%
Q3 2015-28.7%
Q2 2015-13.5%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2012+1.2%
Q2 2014+1.2%
Q2 2013+1.2%
Q2 2012+1.2%
Q1 2013+1.2%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q3 2013+3.1%
Q3 2014+3.1%
Q4 2013+3.1%

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