NASDAQ$FRPT

Freshpet Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Freshpet experienced strong and consistent growth, driven by Feed the Growth plan, despite COVID-19 challenges and capacity limitations.

Freshpet reported a 27.9% increase in net sales, reaching $70.1 million, and a net loss of $3.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 106.1% to $5.7 million. The company reiterated its full-year net sales guidance and updated its Adjusted EBITDA guidance.

  • Net sales increased by 27.9% to $70.1 million.
  • Net loss was $3.6 million, compared to $3.4 million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 106.1% to $5.7 million.
  • Full year 2020 net sales guidance reiterated and Adjusted EBITDA guidance updated.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$70.1M

Previous: $54.8M+27.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.07

Previous: -$0.10+30.0%
Gross Margin

45.4%

Previous: 47.3%-4.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$5.7M

Previous: $2.8M+103.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$3.59M

Previous: -$3.42M-4.9%
Net Income

-$3.59M

Previous: -$3.42M-4.9%
Operating Income

-$2.89M

Previous: -$3.32M+13.0%
Gross Profit

$31.8M

Previous: $25.9M+22.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$149M

Previous: $3.76M+3874.3%
Total Assets

$432M

Previous: $160M+170.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.18M

Previous: $1.2M+81.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Freshpet · Revenue · Quarterly

$70.1M

Q1 2020+27.9%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For full year 2020, the Company reiterated its net sales guidance and updated its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect approximately $4.0 million of strategic activities that leverage Freshpet’s core strengths in the current operating environment.

Tailwinds

  • Incremental second half of 2020 advertising designed to leverage Freshpet’s highly relevant message, increased pet adoptions and incremental capacity along with lower media rates.
  • New e-commerce initiatives designed to capitalize on consumer’s increased purchasing behavior online.
  • Strengthened retail coverage to help improve store conditions subsequent to the buying surge that occurred in March.
  • To exceed net sales of $310 million, an increase greater than 26% from 2019
  • To exceed Adjusted EBITDA of $44 million, an increase greater than 50% from 2019

Headwinds

  • Expects to incur additional costs related to COVID-19 which will be added back to the Company’s Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation
  • Costs include expenses to protect employee health and safety
  • Costs include temporary increased compensation
  • Costs include potential supply chain disruptions
  • The Company does not provide guidance for the most directly comparable GAAP measure, net income, and similarly cannot provide a reconciliation between its forecasted Adjusted EBITDA and net income metrics without unreasonable effort due to the unavailability of reliable estimates for certain items.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

67%

37 / 55 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q2 2016

Best reaction

-28.7%

Q3 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.7%-17.6%-17.4%
Q4 2025+5.5%+13.3%-19.3%
Q3 2025+11.3%+12.3%+26.4%
Q1 2025+3.7%+5.4%+7.0%
Q4 2024-18.5%-18.0%-33.6%
Q3 2024+13.4%+17.0%+17.0%
Q2 2024+4.1%+4.9%+13.8%
Q1 2024+10.1%+9.6%+20.0%
Q4 2023+17.7%+20.4%+25.8%
Q3 2023+16.5%+15.1%+24.4%
Q2 2023+8.5%+7.9%+1.3%
Q1 2023-1.5%-0.6%-5.8%
Q4 2022+1.8%+2.7%+6.1%
Q3 2022+7.1%+14.1%+10.2%
Q2 2022-12.2%-12.4%-28.4%
Q1 2022-11.2%-30.7%-27.7%
Q4 2021+17.4%+5.1%+12.2%
Q3 2021-16.8%-17.6%-28.3%
Q2 2021-3.9%-6.8%-11.2%
Q1 2021-5.1%-4.5%-6.1%
Q4 2020-9.8%-3.3%-10.4%
Q3 2020+9.5%+18.1%+17.0%
Q2 2020+9.1%+6.4%+18.8%
Q1 2020+5.8%+1.1%+5.8%
Q4 2019-9.0%-9.8%-13.9%
Q3 2019-0.5%+7.0%+6.0%
Q2 2019-17.8%-11.1%+8.9%
Q1 2019-0.4%+2.5%+2.1%
Q4 2018+4.1%+6.2%+12.1%
Q3 2018-4.7%+0.4%-11.7%
Q2 2018+6.8%+14.5%+28.2%
Q1 2018-3.5%+5.3%+19.4%
Q4 2017-8.6%-10.6%-20.0%
Q3 2017+7.6%+10.5%+20.3%
Q2 2017+1.8%-5.8%-0.9%
Q1 2017+12.2%+19.0%+33.8%
Q4 2016+15.8%+18.4%+16.3%
Q3 2016+2.9%-4.7%+5.3%
Q2 2016+22.0%+26.1%+17.7%
Q1 2016+4.7%
Q4 2015+9.9%
Q3 2015-28.7%
Q2 2015-13.5%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2012+1.2%
Q2 2014+1.2%
Q2 2013+1.2%
Q2 2012+1.2%
Q1 2013+1.2%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q3 2013+3.1%
Q3 2014+3.1%
Q4 2013+3.1%

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