NASDAQ$FORR

Forrester Research Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Forrester's financial results for Q4 2022 were announced, with revenue increasing but net income decreasing compared to the same period in 2021.

Forrester Research reported Q4 2022 revenue of $136.9 million, a slight increase from $133.7 million in Q4 2021. However, the company experienced a net loss of $1.6 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $8.0 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, in the same period last year. Adjusted net income was $8.5 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, compared to $11.3 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, for the same period in 2021.

  • Total revenue increased to $136.9 million from $133.7 million year-over-year.
  • Net loss was $1.6 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $8.0 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, in Q4 2021.
  • Adjusted net income was $8.5 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, compared to $11.3 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, for the same period in 2021.
  • Forrester Decisions now accounts for approximately one-third of the company's contract value.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$137M

Previous: $134M+2.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.45

Previous: $0.59-23.7%
Contract value

$3.00

Previous: $346M-100.0%
Capital Expenditures

$1.44M

Previous: $900K+59.6%
Free Cash Flow

$186K

Previous: $21.2M-99.1%
Net Income

-$1.63M

Previous: $8M-120.4%
Operating Income

-$3.08M

Previous: $11.5M-126.8%
Gross Profit

$80.1M

Previous: $81.5M-1.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$104M

Previous: $134M-22.8%
Total Assets

$608M

Previous: $680M-10.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.51M

Previous: $2.72M+29.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Forrester · Revenue · Quarterly

$137M

Q4 2022+2.4%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forrester · $137M total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Research
    $92.2M+3.0%
  • Consulting
    $37.5M-4.3%
  • Events
    $7.19M+43.2%

Forward guidance

Forrester is providing full-year 2023 financial guidance. Total revenues of approximately $518.0 million to $538.0 million, or a decline of 4% to flat versus the prior year Diluted earnings per share of approximately $1.02 to $1.22

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted operating margin of approximately 12.0% to 13.0%
  • Adjusted effective tax rate of 29%
  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $2.25 to $2.45
  • Total revenues of approximately $518.0 million to $538.0 million
  • Operating margin of approximately 6.0% to 7.0%

Headwinds

  • A decline of 4% to flat versus the prior year
  • Interest expense of approximately $2.5 million
  • An effective tax rate of 31%
  • Diluted earnings per share of approximately $1.02 to $1.22
  • Key metrics, including overall client and wallet retention, will remain under pressure in the coming quarters given the churn in our legacy business as well as the uncertainty posed by the macroeconomic environment

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

38%

25 / 65 earnings

Positive

+8.9%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.9%+4.3%+14.9%
Q4 2025-9.7%-7.1%-3.9%
Q3 2025+2.9%+0.1%-12.5%
Q1 2025+3.7%+7.6%+9.9%
Q4 2024-12.1%-12.5%-33.0%
Q3 2024+8.9%+10.6%+15.0%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.5%+1.5%
Q1 2024-6.8%-3.7%-2.5%
Q4 2023-8.1%-14.2%-12.4%
Q3 2023-4.2%-11.6%-3.0%
Q2 2023+1.0%+3.2%-1.1%
Q1 2023-15.8%-14.7%-0.3%
Q4 2022-16.0%-13.5%-15.9%
Q3 2022-15.8%-20.4%-14.2%
Q2 2022-7.3%-7.1%-16.7%
Q1 2022-2.9%-8.5%-7.5%
Q4 2021-3.8%-2.2%-6.3%
Q3 2021+5.4%+9.1%+5.4%
Q2 2021+5.4%-1.3%+3.9%
Q1 2021+4.3%+3.5%-4.1%
Q4 2020-3.8%-4.4%+0.7%
Q3 2020+3.0%+9.0%+20.6%
Q2 2020+7.6%+9.2%+10.5%
Q1 2020+3.5%-10.8%+13.1%
Q4 2019-2.4%-4.9%-31.6%
Q3 2019-1.0%-1.2%+9.8%
Q2 2019-13.9%-21.7%-29.2%
Q1 2019-1.0%+1.6%-9.9%
Q4 2018+1.4%+4.2%+6.5%
Q3 2018-7.3%-4.3%+7.3%
Q2 2018-0.9%+2.8%+14.2%
Q1 2018-10.0%-10.2%-7.6%
Q4 2017-3.7%-5.8%+0.2%
Q3 2017+0.5%-0.8%+6.3%
Q2 2017-1.4%-1.6%-2.1%
Q1 2017-1.0%-2.0%-3.2%
Q4 2016-12.3%-10.8%-8.2%
Q3 2016-3.6%+0.4%+10.5%
Q2 2016+8.1%+5.8%+8.2%
Q1 2016-4.3%
Q4 2015+2.3%
Q3 2015+3.3%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015-4.2%
Q4 2014+0.3%
Q3 2014-3.1%
Q2 2014+0.4%
Q1 2014+5.9%
Q4 2013-2.0%
Q3 2013-1.3%
Q2 2013-6.4%
Q1 2013+1.1%
Q4 2012-4.6%
Q3 2012+1.0%
Q2 2012-12.1%
Q1 2011-1.9%
Q1 2012+5.3%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q4 2011+0.1%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q1 2010+5.0%

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