NASDAQ$FORR

Forrester Research Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Forrester's financial performance slowed down due to macroeconomic pressures, but the company is well-positioned for long-term success.

Forrester Research reported total revenues of $106.3 million for Q1 2020, compared to $100.6 million in Q1 2019. On a GAAP basis, the net loss was $0.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share. The company expects near-term macroeconomic pressures from the global pandemic will reduce revenue and operating profit throughout 2020 and has implemented cost-reduction measures and adjusted full-year guidance.

  • Total revenues for Q1 2020 were $106.3 million, a rise from $100.6 million in Q1 2019.
  • Research revenues increased by 6%, while advisory services and events revenues increased by 5% compared to Q1 2019.
  • GAAP net loss was $0.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $13.3 million, or $0.73 per diluted share, for the same period in 2019.
  • Pro forma net income was $6.9 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, compared to $1.6 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, for the same period in 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$106M

Previous: $101M+5.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.37

Previous: $0.08+362.5%
Client retention

69.0%

Previous: 72.0%-4.2%
Wallet retention

89.0%

Previous: 90.0%-1.1%
Number of clients

2.8K

Previous: 2.9K-1.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.4M

Previous: -$2.77M+13.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$2.91M

Previous: -$16.1M+81.9%
Net Income

-$513K

Previous: -$13.3M+96.1%
Operating Income

$721K

Previous: -$10.9M+106.6%
Gross Profit

$68.2M

Previous: $59M+15.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$69.8M

Previous: $75M-6.9%
Total Assets

$608M

Previous: $640M-5.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.8M

Previous: $2.69M+4.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Forrester · Revenue · Quarterly

$106M

Q1 2020+5.7%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forrester · $106M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Research
    $72.8M
  • Consulting
    $33.5M

Forward guidance

Forrester is providing second-quarter 2020 financial guidance.

Tailwinds

  • Total revenues of approximately $103.0 million to $108.0 million.
  • Operating margin of approximately 1.0% to 3.0%.
  • Pro forma operating margin of approximately 8.0% to 10.0%.
  • Pro forma effective tax rate of 31%.
  • Pro forma diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.26 to $0.34.

Headwinds

  • Interest expense of approximately $1.3 million.
  • An effective tax rate of 10% to 15%.
  • Income (loss) per share of approximately $(0.01) to $0.07.
  • Total revenues of approximately $410.0 million to $430.0 million for full year 2020.
  • Loss per share of approximately $(0.37) to $(0.07) for full year 2020.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

38%

25 / 65 earnings

Positive

+8.9%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.9%+4.3%+14.9%
Q4 2025-9.7%-7.1%-3.9%
Q3 2025+2.9%+0.1%-12.5%
Q1 2025+3.7%+7.6%+9.9%
Q4 2024-12.1%-12.5%-33.0%
Q3 2024+8.9%+10.6%+15.0%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.5%+1.5%
Q1 2024-6.8%-3.7%-2.5%
Q4 2023-8.1%-14.2%-12.4%
Q3 2023-4.2%-11.6%-3.0%
Q2 2023+1.0%+3.2%-1.1%
Q1 2023-15.8%-14.7%-0.3%
Q4 2022-16.0%-13.5%-15.9%
Q3 2022-15.8%-20.4%-14.2%
Q2 2022-7.3%-7.1%-16.7%
Q1 2022-2.9%-8.5%-7.5%
Q4 2021-3.8%-2.2%-6.3%
Q3 2021+5.4%+9.1%+5.4%
Q2 2021+5.4%-1.3%+3.9%
Q1 2021+4.3%+3.5%-4.1%
Q4 2020-3.8%-4.4%+0.7%
Q3 2020+3.0%+9.0%+20.6%
Q2 2020+7.6%+9.2%+10.5%
Q1 2020+3.5%-10.8%+13.1%
Q4 2019-2.4%-4.9%-31.6%
Q3 2019-1.0%-1.2%+9.8%
Q2 2019-13.9%-21.7%-29.2%
Q1 2019-1.0%+1.6%-9.9%
Q4 2018+1.4%+4.2%+6.5%
Q3 2018-7.3%-4.3%+7.3%
Q2 2018-0.9%+2.8%+14.2%
Q1 2018-10.0%-10.2%-7.6%
Q4 2017-3.7%-5.8%+0.2%
Q3 2017+0.5%-0.8%+6.3%
Q2 2017-1.4%-1.6%-2.1%
Q1 2017-1.0%-2.0%-3.2%
Q4 2016-12.3%-10.8%-8.2%
Q3 2016-3.6%+0.4%+10.5%
Q2 2016+8.1%+5.8%+8.2%
Q1 2016-4.3%
Q4 2015+2.3%
Q3 2015+3.3%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015-4.2%
Q4 2014+0.3%
Q3 2014-3.1%
Q2 2014+0.4%
Q1 2014+5.9%
Q4 2013-2.0%
Q3 2013-1.3%
Q2 2013-6.4%
Q1 2013+1.1%
Q4 2012-4.6%
Q3 2012+1.0%
Q2 2012-12.1%
Q1 2011-1.9%
Q1 2012+5.3%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q4 2011+0.1%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q1 2010+5.0%

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