NASDAQ$DORM

Dorman Products Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record net sales with increased revenue and acquisition of SuperATV.

Dorman Products reported a strong fourth quarter with record net sales of $501.3 million, a 25.9% increase year-over-year. EPS was $0.57, while adjusted EPS was $1.01. The company benefited from an extra week in the fourth quarter and the acquisition of SuperATV.

  • Achieved record net sales of $501.3 million, up 25.9% year-over-year.
  • Diluted earnings per share was $0.57, compared to $1.07 in Q4 2021.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.01, compared to $1.33 in Q4 2021.
  • Gross profit was $157.8 million, or 31.5% of net sales.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$501M

Previous: $398M+25.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.01

Previous: $1.33-24.1%
Gross Margin

31.5%

Previous: 33.0%-4.5%
Capital Expenditures

$14.1M

Previous: $4.57M+208.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.76M

Previous: $18.2M-109.7%
Net Income

$17.8M

Previous: $34.1M-47.7%
Operating Income

$32.8M

Previous: $45.1M-27.3%
Gross Profit

$158M

Previous: $131M+20.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$46M

Previous: $58.8M-21.7%
Total Assets

$2.34B

Previous: $1.67B+40.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.63M

Previous: $2.02M+30.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Dorman · Revenue · Quarterly

$501M

Q4 2022+25.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is issuing full-year 2023 guidance, detailed in the table below, which includes the impact of the SuperATV acquisition but excludes any potential impacts from future acquisitions, additional supply chain disruptions, or share repurchases.

Tailwinds

  • Demand remains robust for our products driven by strong macro fundamentals across the vehicle aftermarket.
  • Vehicle miles driven continue to increase.
  • The average age of vehicles continue to rise.
  • The number of cars in our 8 to 13-year-old sweet spot for the aftermarket continues to grow.
  • A shortage of new vehicles benefit the aftermarket.

Headwinds

  • We anticipate first quarter adjusted gross margin percentage and adjusted SG&A dollars will be in line sequentially with fourth quarter 2022.
  • However, operating margins and adjusted earnings per share are expected to be significantly lower than the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by seasonally lower sales levels.
  • We remain encouraged by the easing of inflationary costs we have seen over the past several months and anticipate meaningful improvements in our gross margins throughout 2023 and expect to exit the year at a rate approaching pre-COVID levels.
  • Finally, as we reduce lead times and safety stocks as a result of improvements in global supply chains, combined with the impact of lower material and freight costs, we anticipate inventory values to meaningfully decline throughout 2023.
  • While our overall capital allocation strategy over the long term will not change, based on current conditions we plan in the short term to utilize excess cash from lower inventory requirements to reduce our debt.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

27 / 65 earnings

Positive

+16.4%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.8%+10.0%+10.5%
Q4 2025+2.0%+1.5%-8.7%
Q3 2025-9.8%-12.8%-12.6%
Q1 2025+6.6%+8.5%+10.5%
Q4 2024+3.2%+5.0%-2.7%
Q3 2024+10.4%+19.0%+20.9%
Q2 2024+1.5%+5.4%+11.9%
Q1 2024-1.8%-0.5%-2.5%
Q4 2023+16.4%+12.7%+17.8%
Q3 2023-10.1%-6.3%-1.0%
Q2 2023+4.7%+5.5%-2.6%
Q1 2023-0.7%+2.0%-4.5%
Q4 2022-2.8%-3.1%-9.6%
Q3 2022-14.8%-5.3%+4.0%
Q2 2022-12.3%-13.4%-16.5%
Q1 2022-1.8%+5.1%+4.4%
Q4 2021-3.1%-0.3%-0.1%
Q3 2021-1.7%+2.0%+18.8%
Q2 2021-3.3%-3.6%-7.2%
Q1 2021-12.0%-10.9%-9.0%
Q4 2020+9.6%+7.1%+9.0%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.7%+5.7%
Q2 2020+8.8%+7.6%+11.7%
Q1 2020+15.5%+6.7%+20.5%
Q4 2019-16.6%-20.9%-32.2%
Q3 2019-13.0%-11.1%-10.6%
Q2 2019-13.3%-16.6%-14.1%
Q1 2019-6.3%-6.7%-13.0%
Q4 2018-8.0%-7.7%-4.6%
Q3 2018+10.6%+11.5%+24.4%
Q2 2018-2.1%-0.5%+10.2%
Q1 2018+0.6%+1.5%+0.4%
Q4 2017-3.2%-4.9%-10.9%
Q3 2017-4.4%-2.9%-3.7%
Q2 2017-4.9%-3.6%-14.9%
Q1 2017-0.7%+0.3%+1.4%
Q4 2016+7.1%+8.8%+9.7%
Q3 2016+3.2%+2.2%+17.2%
Q2 2016+8.9%+12.6%+11.3%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015+11.5%
Q3 2015-9.2%
Q2 2015+6.8%
Q1 2015-7.4%
Q4 2014-5.4%
Q3 2014-0.1%
Q2 2014-10.2%
Q1 2014+2.3%
Q4 2013-1.0%
Q3 2013-0.3%
Q2 2013+0.4%
Q1 2013+8.5%
Q4 2011+1.9%
Q4 2012-7.2%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012+11.6%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.4%
Q3 2011-3.4%
Q2 2010-5.3%
Q2 2011-5.3%
Q4 2010-5.3%
Q1 2010+0.5%

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