NASDAQ$ASLE

AerSale Corporation · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AerSale's first quarter results reflected the pacing of the flight equipment sales.

AerSale reported a revenue of $78.3 million for Q1 2023, compared to $122.8 million in Q1 2022. GAAP net income was $5 thousand, a significant decrease from $17.2 million in the prior year period. The company reaffirms its 2023 guidance, expecting revenue between $460 and $490 million and adjusted EBITDA between $70 and $80 million.

  • Revenue decreased to $78.3 million compared to $122.8 million in the prior year period, impacted by the timing of flight equipment sales.
  • GAAP net income was $5 thousand, down from $17.2 million in the same period last year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $5.0 million compared to $29.9 million in the prior year period.
  • Company reaffirms its 2023 guidance with revenue expected to be in the range of $460 - $490 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $70 - $80 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$78.3M

Previous: $123M-36.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.07

Previous: $0.41-82.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$4.98M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$1.48M

Previous: -$1.64M+9.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.48M

Previous: $15.6M-109.5%
Net Income

$5K

Previous: $17.2M-100.0%
Operating Income

-$833K

Previous: $22.9M-103.6%
Gross Profit

$24.4M

Previous: $46.7M-47.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$87.7M

Previous: $172M-48.9%
Total Assets

$537M

Previous: $503M+6.8%

Revenue & EPS history

AerSale · Revenue · Quarterly

$78.3M

Q1 2023-36.3%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 15 quarters(20%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AerSale · $49.4M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Technical Operations
    $32M
  • Asset Management Solutions
    $17.4M-82.3%

Forward guidance

AerSale still expects to generate revenue of $460 - $490 million and adjusted EBITDA of $70 - $80 million in 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Company expects to generate revenue of $460 - $490 million in 2023.
  • Company expects adjusted EBITDA of $70 - $80 million in 2023.
  • Guidance reflects the Company’s expected flight equipment sales during the year.
  • Guidance reflects anticipated volume in its ongoing operations.
  • Company expects a stronger contribution from the 757 P2F program in the second half of 2023 as we execute on our planned flight equipment sales.

Headwinds

  • Guidance for 2023 does not reflect potential sales of AerAware as the product is in its final stages of approval.
  • Results for the first quarter of 2023 included significantly lower flight equipment sales compared to the prior year, which adversely impacted our margins.
  • Expect this trend to continue through the second quarter of this year given that the second quarter of 2022 included $92.5 million of higher margin flight equipment sales.
  • Company's revenues are likely to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year based on flight equipment sales.
  • FAA approval process is lengthy and exhaustive to ensure public safety.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-4.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

12 / 28 earnings

Positive

+16.5%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-24.5%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-10.9%-12.0%
Q4 2025-11.7%-12.0%-15.7%
Q3 2025-11.9%-14.4%-5.2%
Q1 2025-12.7%-13.4%-17.2%
Q4 2024+16.5%+15.6%-4.0%
Q3 2024-7.7%-5.4%+4.0%
Q2 2024-9.7%-12.5%-14.9%
Q1 2024+10.0%+4.7%-6.4%
Q4 2023-24.0%-22.0%-23.0%
Q3 2023-13.1%-12.4%-3.4%
Q2 2023-24.5%-24.1%+7.7%
Q1 2023-4.0%-4.4%-7.4%
Q4 2022-15.1%-19.7%-19.2%
Q3 2022-7.3%-4.8%-15.0%
Q2 2022+11.2%+13.0%+18.9%
Q1 2022-2.0%-1.4%+4.6%
Q4 2021+2.5%+11.0%+6.2%
Q3 2021-19.2%-17.6%-16.8%
Q2 2021+4.1%+18.8%+22.7%
Q1 2021-2.0%-3.5%-2.3%
Q4 2020+16.3%+25.5%+25.4%
Q3 2020+2.1%+8.2%+17.9%
Q2 2020+0.7%-0.3%-0.6%
Q1 2020+0.0%+0.0%+1.4%
Q4 2019+0.2%+0.0%-1.0%
Q4 2018+0.2%+0.0%-1.0%
Q2 2019-0.7%-1.0%-1.4%
Q1 2019+0.0%+0.2%+0.3%

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