NASDAQ$ASLE

AerSale Corporation · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AerSale's Q4 2022 results reflected a decrease in revenue due to lower flight equipment sales, but the company saw growth in Technical Operations revenue. Net income was also impacted by lower flight equipment sales. The company is progressing with its AerAware system and anticipates it to be a meaningful contributor to long-term performance.

AerSale Corporation reported a decrease in revenue for Q4 2022, totaling $95.1 million compared to $116.8 million in Q4 2021, primarily due to lower flight equipment sales. GAAP net income was reported at $9.2 million, down from $11.2 million in the prior year period. The company's Technical Operations revenue improved by 17.2%, driven by better performance from landing gear and aerostructure MRO.

  • Q4 2022 revenue was $95.1 million, compared to $116.8 million in Q4 2021, with flight equipment sales contributing $51.4 million.
  • GAAP net income for Q4 2022 was $9.2 million, versus $11.2 million in the prior year period.
  • Asset Management Solutions revenue decreased to $67.9 million due to the pacing of flight equipment sales.
  • Technical Operations revenue increased by 17.2% to $27.1 million, driven by better performance in landing gear and aerostructure MRO.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$95.1M

Previous: $117M-18.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.23

Previous: $0.31-25.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$17.7M

No prior period
Gross Margin

36.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$1.53M

Previous: $448K+240.8%
Free Cash Flow

$742K

Previous: $52.2M-98.6%
Net Income

$9.2M

Previous: $11.2M-17.7%
Operating Income

$9.1M

Previous: $19.8M-54.0%
Gross Profit

$34.2M

Previous: $44.2M-22.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$147M

Previous: $130M+13.1%
Total Assets

$532M

Previous: $487M+9.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.47M

Previous: $3.82M+16.9%

Revenue & EPS history

AerSale · Revenue · Quarterly

$95.1M

Q4 2022-18.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 3 of 15 quarters(20%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AerSale · $49.4M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Technical Operations
    $32M
  • Asset Management Solutions
    $17.4M-82.3%

Forward guidance

AerSale anticipates revenue between $460 and $490 million and adjusted EBITDA between $70 and $80 million for 2023. The guidance does not include potential AerAware sales.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue is expected to be in the range of $460 to $490 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $70 to $80 million.
  • The 757 P2F program is anticipated to be a strong contributor.
  • Company will benefit from an improving backdrop in commercial aerospace.
  • AerAware product is in its final stages of approval and will be updated once the STC is issued.

Headwinds

  • Guidance does not reflect potential sales of AerAware.
  • Revenue variability may occur due to the timing of flight equipment sales.
  • Lower leasing volume may impact Asset Management revenue.
  • Lower revenue at the Roswell facility due to fewer customer aircraft in storage.
  • Potential delays in FAA staffing and weather could impact AerAware certification.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-4.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

12 / 28 earnings

Positive

+16.5%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-24.5%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-10.9%-12.0%-13.5%
Q4 2025-11.7%-12.0%-15.7%
Q3 2025-11.9%-14.4%-5.2%
Q1 2025-12.7%-13.4%-17.2%
Q4 2024+16.5%+15.6%-4.0%
Q3 2024-7.7%-5.4%+4.0%
Q2 2024-9.7%-12.5%-14.9%
Q1 2024+10.0%+4.7%-6.4%
Q4 2023-24.0%-22.0%-23.0%
Q3 2023-13.1%-12.4%-3.4%
Q2 2023-24.5%-24.1%+7.7%
Q1 2023-4.0%-4.4%-7.4%
Q4 2022-15.1%-19.7%-19.2%
Q3 2022-7.3%-4.8%-15.0%
Q2 2022+11.2%+13.0%+18.9%
Q1 2022-2.0%-1.4%+4.6%
Q4 2021+2.5%+11.0%+6.2%
Q3 2021-19.2%-17.6%-16.8%
Q2 2021+4.1%+18.8%+22.7%
Q1 2021-2.0%-3.5%-2.3%
Q4 2020+16.3%+25.5%+25.4%
Q3 2020+2.1%+8.2%+17.9%
Q2 2020+0.7%-0.3%-0.6%
Q1 2020+0.0%+0.0%+1.4%
Q4 2019+0.2%+0.0%-1.0%
Q4 2018+0.2%+0.0%-1.0%
Q2 2019-0.7%-1.0%-1.4%
Q1 2019+0.0%+0.2%+0.3%

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