NASDAQ$ALCO

Alico Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2020.

Alico, Inc. reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $2.1 million, and EBITDA of $7.5 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2020. The company's Alico Citrus division saw operating revenues of $25.4 million.

  • Company now has contracts in place that provide for prices per pound solid over the next several years which will be greater than the current year’s prices per pound solid.
  • Company entered into a new long-term agreement to provide citrus grove management for approximately 7,000 acres in southwestern Florida.
  • The coronavirus outbreak (“COVID-19”) did not impact the Company’s fiscal year 2020 harvest and has not had a material adverse impact on the Company’s overall business operations.
  • Company appoints two new Board members with Florida agriculture expertise and exceptional credentials.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$26.1M

Previous: $57.6M-54.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.25

Previous: $2.15-88.4%
EBITDA

$7.52M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$7.44M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$17M

Previous: -$14.6M-16.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$14.9M

Previous: $1.68M-989.1%
Net Income

$2.1M

Previous: $16.2M-87.1%
Operating Income

$3.66M

Previous: $23.3M-84.3%
Gross Profit

$6.22M

Previous: $26M-76.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$80.4M

Previous: $3.52M+2185.5%
Total Assets

$470M

Previous: $400M+17.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$252K

Previous: $314K-19.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Alico · Revenue · Quarterly

$26.1M

Q3 2020-54.6%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 1 of 2 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alico · $26.1M total across 2 segments · Q3 2020

  • Alico Citrus
    $25.4M
  • Land Management and Other Operations
    $762K

Forward guidance

The Company is projecting net income for its fiscal year ended September 30, 2020 between $22.0 million and $24.0 million and EBITDA for its fiscal year ended September 30, 2020 between $49.5 million and $52.5 million.

Tailwinds

  • New citrus supply agreements, which extend until 2024, have pricing mechanisms which will protect the Company in the event of over-supply.
  • Alico is entitled to receive greater prices per pound solid than the prices per pound solid realized by the Company this fiscal year
  • Agreements incorporate certain increasing pricing provisions over the next several seasons.
  • Higher levels of consumer demand have increased not-from-concentrate orange juice consumption in 2020 and driven down processor inventory levels
  • Operating costs have been consistent over the last few years, after executing operational and financial improvements previously outlined in our Alico 2.0 Modernization program

Headwinds

  • Alico will realize lower earnings this fiscal year primarily because of lower market prices for citrus fruit.
  • Net Income attributable to common stockholders $22,000,000 - $24,000,000
  • Interest expense $5,900,000 - $6,100,000
  • Income tax provision $7,300,000 - $7,900,000
  • Depreciation, depletion and amortization $14,300,000 - $14,500,000

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+16.5%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-9.5%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+1.0%-0.6%+1.3%
Q1 2026-0.5%-0.3%-2.0%
Q4 2025+4.6%+9.7%+13.5%
Q2 2025+4.0%+4.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025+0.8%-1.4%-3.8%
Q4 2024+0.0%+3.7%-3.2%
Q3 2024+0.2%-4.8%+0.5%
Q2 2024+2.8%+2.9%-4.1%
Q1 2024+0.5%+5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2023+3.0%+3.3%+0.6%
Q3 2023-4.3%-4.0%-9.2%
Q2 2023-0.0%-0.8%+4.7%
Q1 2023-2.3%-3.1%-6.5%
Q4 2022-9.5%-14.0%-10.1%
Q3 2022-8.8%-9.4%-5.7%
Q2 2022+1.2%+4.0%+7.4%
Q1 2022-5.8%-6.6%-4.9%
Q4 2021-1.7%-0.1%+4.1%
Q3 2021+0.4%+0.2%-0.6%
Q2 2021+0.7%+3.0%+6.6%
Q1 2021+0.8%-0.6%-1.8%
Q4 2020+1.1%+0.3%-0.0%
Q3 2020-0.6%-1.8%-7.2%
Q2 2020-1.9%-4.8%+7.9%
Q1 2020+1.2%-1.0%-11.1%
Q4 2019+0.6%+8.9%+9.4%
Q3 2019+0.4%+2.7%+2.7%
Q2 2019-0.8%-0.8%+1.8%
Q1 2019+0.8%+1.3%-0.5%
Q4 2018-0.2%+0.5%-5.3%
Q3 2018+2.9%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2018-2.0%-1.4%-5.6%
Q1 2018+3.5%-0.6%+4.6%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.0%-13.9%
Q3 2017+0.3%+1.6%+8.0%
Q2 2017+0.7%+7.1%+0.7%
Q1 2017-1.3%-5.9%-8.6%
Q4 2016-3.8%+1.3%-0.5%
Q3 2016-0.1%-0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016-5.1%
Q1 2016-5.0%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015-0.2%
Q2 2015-1.7%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014+16.5%
Q3 2014+3.0%
Q2 2014+1.2%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013+2.8%
Q1 2013-4.5%
Q4 2012+4.2%
Q3 2012-1.6%
Q2 2012+3.3%
Q1 2011-3.0%
Q1 2012-3.0%
Q2 2011-0.6%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q3 2010-0.4%
Q4 2010-0.4%
Q3 2011-0.4%
Q2 2010+8.1%

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