NYSE$USFD

US Foods Holding Corp. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

US Foods' performance was marked by a 14.8% increase in net sales, driven by the Food Group acquisition and inflation, alongside a 12.8% rise in adjusted EBITDA, despite a decrease in net income.

US Foods reported a 14.8% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion and a 12.8% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $335 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. However, net income decreased by $8 million to $92 million. The results were significantly influenced by the acquisition of the Food Group and inflation in various product categories.

  • Total case volume increased by 12.3%, with organic growth of 0.4%.
  • Independent restaurant case volume increased by 11.9%, with organic growth of 2.9%.
  • Net sales reached $6.9 billion, a 14.8% increase, with the Food Group contributing $711 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12.8% to $335 million, while organic Adjusted EBITDA grew by 6.7%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.93B

Previous: $6.04B+14.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.66

Previous: $0.56+17.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$335M

Previous: $297M+12.8%
Total Case Volume Growth

12.3%

No prior period
Independent Restaurant Volume Growth

11.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$101M

Previous: $67.3M+50.1%
Free Cash Flow

$100M

Previous: $97.7M+2.3%
Net Income

$92M

Previous: $99.9M-7.9%
Operating Income

$186M

Previous: $170M+9.4%
Gross Profit

$1.24B

Previous: $1.09B+13.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$90M

Previous: $104M-13.5%
Total Assets

$11.3B

Previous: $9.19B+22.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $7.54M+32.6%

Revenue & EPS history

US Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.93B

Q4 2019+14.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2020, the company expects total case volume growth of 9-11%, Adjusted EBITDA growth of 12-15% and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $2.70-$2.80. The company also expects total organic case volume growth of 2-3% and organic Adjusted EBITDA growth of 6-8%.

Tailwinds

  • Total case volume growth of 9-11%
  • Adjusted EBITDA growth of 12-15%
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS of $2.70-$2.80
  • Total organic case volume growth of 2-3%
  • Organic Adjusted EBITDA growth of 6-8%

Headwinds

  • Cash capital expenditures of $325-$335 million
  • Fleet capital leases are expected to be approximately $80 million
  • Interest expense is expected to be $210-$220 million
  • Depreciation expense is expected to be $330-$340 million
  • Adjusted effective income tax rate is expected to be 25-26%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

64%

29 / 45 earnings

Positive

+15.5%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-16.7%

Q2 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-5.7%-8.8%-8.1%
Q4 2025+13.4%+8.0%+5.2%
Q3 2025-3.8%-2.6%+1.5%
Q1 2025+3.8%+6.8%+12.5%
Q4 2024+1.7%+1.3%-6.3%
Q3 2024+1.7%+1.8%+9.4%
Q2 2024+1.8%+5.3%+11.8%
Q1 2024+4.6%+4.1%+2.0%
Q4 2023+5.6%+6.0%+15.0%
Q3 2023+3.5%+5.8%+8.7%
Q2 2023-2.8%-5.8%-7.9%
Q1 2023+8.2%+7.0%+10.4%
Q4 2022+7.2%+6.3%-5.1%
Q3 2022+15.5%+15.1%+17.7%
Q2 2022+3.0%+3.0%-3.0%
Q1 2022+1.6%+2.4%-13.2%
Q4 2021-2.2%-3.7%-5.2%
Q3 2021-7.5%-11.8%-11.6%
Q2 2021+1.7%+0.6%-3.3%
Q1 2021-4.2%-2.9%-3.9%
Q4 2020-4.6%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2020+10.2%+11.6%+55.8%
Q2 2020+9.1%+15.5%+20.8%
Q1 2020-8.3%-1.6%+5.9%
Q4 2019-0.7%-0.6%-50.8%
Q3 2019+0.8%-2.8%+0.0%
Q2 2019+10.3%+10.8%+16.0%
Q1 2019+3.6%+5.5%-2.1%
Q4 2018+0.6%+0.1%-1.8%
Q3 2018+13.4%+12.5%+15.0%
Q2 2018-16.7%-18.5%-20.9%
Q1 2018+1.6%+1.1%+10.2%
Q4 2017+9.3%+6.6%+14.3%
Q3 2017-1.1%-1.3%+13.6%
Q2 2017-5.8%-6.4%-5.3%
Q1 2017-2.4%-0.3%+3.5%
Q4 2015-0.9%-1.2%-0.3%
Q4 2014-0.9%-1.2%-0.3%
Q4 2016-0.9%+1.6%-0.9%
Q3 2016+1.1%+1.8%+6.6%
Q3 2015+1.1%+1.8%+6.6%
Q2 2015+1.4%+1.6%+1.4%
Q1 2016+1.4%+1.6%+1.4%
Q1 2015+1.4%+1.6%+1.4%
Q2 2016+1.4%+1.6%+1.4%

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