NYSE$TWO

Two Harbors Investment Corp · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, highlighting the benefits of the hedged MSR strategy which drove high-quality returns in a dynamic market.

Two Harbors Investment Corp. reported its Q4 2024 financial results, with a focus on its hedged MSR strategy. The company declared a fourth-quarter common stock dividend of $0.45 per share. The MSR portfolio had a 3-month CPR of 4.93%, a weighted average gross coupon rate of 3.46%, and a 60+ day delinquency rate of 0.90%.

  • Reported book value of $14.47 per common share and declared a fourth quarter common stock dividend of $0.45 per share.
  • Incurred Comprehensive Loss of $(1.6) million, or $(0.03) per weighted average basic common share.
  • Settled $2.5 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB) of MSR through bulk and flow-sale acquisitions and recapture.
  • MSR portfolio had 3-month CPR of 4.93%, weighted average gross coupon rate of 3.46%, and 60+ day delinquency rate of 0.90%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$34.9M

Previous: -$45.7M+23.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.20

Previous: -$0.11+281.8%
Book Value/Share

$14.47

No prior period
Dividend/Share

$0.45

Previous: $0.45+0.0%
Dividend Yield

15.2%

Previous: 12.9%+17.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$27.5M

No prior period
Net Income

$277M

Previous: -$433M+163.9%
Operating Income

$308M

Previous: -$462M+166.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Two Harbors · Revenue · Quarterly

-$34.9M

Q4 2024-23.6%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 1 of 14 quarters(7%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Two Harbors · $3.07B total across 1 segment · Q1 2023

  • MSR Servicing Income
    $3.07B

Forward guidance

Mortgage spread volatility has significantly decreased, enhancing our portfolio’s return outlook. Mortgage rates are well above 6%, and prepayment rates are expected to remain slow in 2025, providing a strong positive tailwind for MSR. Combined with historically wide nominal current coupon spreads, we believe that our unique hedged MSR-centric strategy will continue to generate attractive levered returns in 2025 and beyond.

Tailwinds

  • Mortgage spread volatility has significantly decreased, enhancing our portfolio’s return outlook.
  • Mortgage rates are well above 6%.
  • Prepayment rates are expected to remain slow in 2025, providing a strong positive tailwind for MSR.
  • Historically wide nominal current coupon spreads.
  • Unique hedged MSR-centric strategy will continue to generate attractive levered returns in 2025 and beyond.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 64 earnings

Positive

+16.7%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-11.5%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+10.7%+12.0%
Q4 2025+0.4%-6.8%-19.0%
Q3 2025+0.2%-1.0%+4.0%
Q1 2025+3.5%-1.1%-7.3%
Q4 2024+6.7%+8.4%+20.5%
Q3 2024-7.1%-11.5%-8.8%
Q2 2024-1.5%-3.4%+2.8%
Q1 2024+0.8%+4.5%-0.4%
Q4 2023-5.8%-7.3%-7.7%
Q3 2023+16.7%+32.8%+39.4%
Q2 2023+0.7%-0.2%+0.5%
Q1 2023-10.3%-14.9%-10.7%
Q4 2022-1.9%+1.1%-14.0%
Q3 2022+5.0%+14.9%+10.8%
Q2 2022-2.1%-3.4%-9.5%
Q1 2022+3.0%+3.4%+5.1%
Q4 2021+0.2%-3.0%-2.2%
Q3 2021-1.9%-2.6%-3.4%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.2%+2.4%
Q1 2021-11.5%-9.0%-4.9%
Q4 2020+3.7%-5.9%+9.3%
Q3 2020-1.3%+4.9%+21.8%
Q2 2020-4.5%+8.2%-1.7%
Q1 2020-1.3%-5.1%+21.4%
Q4 2019+0.8%-1.3%-11.4%
Q3 2019+2.2%+4.1%+5.6%
Q2 2019+2.1%+4.0%+0.5%
Q1 2019-1.0%-1.2%-8.7%
Q4 2018-3.6%-4.6%-5.3%
Q3 2018-3.0%-2.0%-2.2%
Q2 2018+1.5%+2.9%+6.4%
Q1 2018-1.2%-0.3%+1.3%
Q4 2017+1.8%+3.9%+7.6%
Q3 2017+1.8%+0.7%+6.9%
Q2 2017+1.3%+1.9%+2.6%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.3%+3.8%
Q4 2016+0.2%+1.9%+4.8%
Q3 2016+0.6%+2.5%+3.2%
Q2 2016+2.1%+2.9%+4.5%
Q1 2016+5.5%
Q4 2015+0.0%
Q3 2015-4.9%
Q2 2015-3.2%
Q1 2015+0.2%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+2.3%
Q1 2014-0.5%
Q4 2013+0.8%
Q3 2013+1.7%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q1 2013+7.0%
Q4 2012-2.2%
Q3 2012-6.4%
Q2 2012-0.4%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2011-1.5%
Q1 2010-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010-0.4%
Q3 2011-0.4%
Q2 2011-5.3%
Q2 2010-5.3%

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