NYSE$TWO

Two Harbors Investment Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Two Harbors reported positive return on book value due to being positioned in low coupon MSR and higher coupon RMBS.

Two Harbors Investment Corp. reported a positive return on book value in the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by its portfolio positioning in low coupon MSR and higher coupon RMBS. The company's book value was $17.72 per common share, and a dividend of $0.60 per share was declared. Comprehensive Income was $160.2 million, or $1.85 per share, and Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) were $22.2 million, or $0.26 per share.

  • Reported book value of $17.72 per common share, and declared a fourth quarter common stock dividend of $0.60 per share, representing an 11.6% quarterly economic return on book value.
  • Generated Comprehensive Income of $160.2 million, or $1.85 per weighted average basic common share.
  • Reported Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) of $22.2 million, or $0.26 per weighted average basic common share.
  • Generated Income Excluding Market-Driven Value Changes of $0.73 per weighted average basic common share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$16.3M

Previous: $12.8M-227.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.26

Previous: $0.88-70.5%
Book Value/Share

$17.72

No prior period
Dividend/Share

$0.60

No prior period
Economic Return on BV

11.6%

No prior period
Avg Cost of Financing

4.0%

No prior period
Net Income

-$270M

Previous: -$1.29M-20782.8%
Operating Income

-$262M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$683M

Previous: $1.15B-40.8%
Total Assets

$13.5B

Previous: $12.1B+11.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.65M

Previous: $2.53M-34.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Two Harbors · Revenue · Quarterly

-$16.3M

Q4 2022-227.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 1 of 14 quarters(7%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Two Harbors · $3.07B total across 1 segment · Q1 2023

  • MSR Servicing Income
    $3.07B

Forward guidance

The company did not provide specific forward guidance but expressed optimism about the return potential in 2023, expecting volatility to moderate, which could lead to tighter spreads and positive outcomes for mortgage securities.

Tailwinds

  • Constructive on forward-looking return potential in 2023
  • Expects that volatility will moderate in 2023
  • Tighter spreads could be a positive tailwind for mortgage securities
  • Portfolio benefitting from being positioned in low coupon MSR
  • Portfolio benefitting from being positioned in higher coupon RMBS

Headwinds

  • Spread volatility in the fourth quarter
  • Challenging investment environments in decades
  • Inflation moderated
  • Rate expectations leveled off
  • Volatility remained stubbornly high

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 64 earnings

Positive

+16.7%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-11.5%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+10.7%+12.0%
Q4 2025+0.4%-6.8%-19.0%
Q3 2025+0.2%-1.0%+4.0%
Q1 2025+3.5%-1.1%-7.3%
Q4 2024+6.7%+8.4%+20.5%
Q3 2024-7.1%-11.5%-8.8%
Q2 2024-1.5%-3.4%+2.8%
Q1 2024+0.8%+4.5%-0.4%
Q4 2023-5.8%-7.3%-7.7%
Q3 2023+16.7%+32.8%+39.4%
Q2 2023+0.7%-0.2%+0.5%
Q1 2023-10.3%-14.9%-10.7%
Q4 2022-1.9%+1.1%-14.0%
Q3 2022+5.0%+14.9%+10.8%
Q2 2022-2.1%-3.4%-9.5%
Q1 2022+3.0%+3.4%+5.1%
Q4 2021+0.2%-3.0%-2.2%
Q3 2021-1.9%-2.6%-3.4%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.2%+2.4%
Q1 2021-11.5%-9.0%-4.9%
Q4 2020+3.7%-5.9%+9.3%
Q3 2020-1.3%+4.9%+21.8%
Q2 2020-4.5%+8.2%-1.7%
Q1 2020-1.3%-5.1%+21.4%
Q4 2019+0.8%-1.3%-11.4%
Q3 2019+2.2%+4.1%+5.6%
Q2 2019+2.1%+4.0%+0.5%
Q1 2019-1.0%-1.2%-8.7%
Q4 2018-3.6%-4.6%-5.3%
Q3 2018-3.0%-2.0%-2.2%
Q2 2018+1.5%+2.9%+6.4%
Q1 2018-1.2%-0.3%+1.3%
Q4 2017+1.8%+3.9%+7.6%
Q3 2017+1.8%+0.7%+6.9%
Q2 2017+1.3%+1.9%+2.6%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.3%+3.8%
Q4 2016+0.2%+1.9%+4.8%
Q3 2016+0.6%+2.5%+3.2%
Q2 2016+2.1%+2.9%+4.5%
Q1 2016+5.5%
Q4 2015+0.0%
Q3 2015-4.9%
Q2 2015-3.2%
Q1 2015+0.2%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+2.3%
Q1 2014-0.5%
Q4 2013+0.8%
Q3 2013+1.7%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q1 2013+7.0%
Q4 2012-2.2%
Q3 2012-6.4%
Q2 2012-0.4%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2011-1.5%
Q1 2010-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010-0.4%
Q3 2011-0.4%
Q2 2011-5.3%
Q2 2010-5.3%

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