NYSE$TRN

Trinity Industries Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Trinity reported a strong fourth quarter and full year in 2023, with revenue up 35% year over year for the quarter and lease fleet utilization remaining favorable.

Trinity Industries announced strong Q4 and full year 2023 results, with Q4 revenue up 35% year over year to $798 million. The company reported EPS of $0.81 and adjusted EPS of $0.82 for the quarter. Lease fleet utilization remained high at 97.5%.

  • Quarterly total company revenues increased to $798 million, a 35% improvement year over year.
  • The company reported quarterly income from continuing operations per common diluted share (EPS) of $0.81 and adjusted EPS of $0.82.
  • Lease fleet utilization remained high at 97.5% with a Future Lease Rate Differential (FLRD) of positive 23.7% at quarter-end.
  • The company delivered 4,000 railcars and secured new railcar orders of 840 during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$798M

Previous: $591M+35.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.82

Previous: $0.44+86.4%
Fleet Utilization

97.5%

Previous: 97.9%-0.4%
Railcar Deliveries

4.0K

Previous: 4.4K-9.1%
New Railcar Orders

840

Previous: 3.0K-72.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$197M

Previous: $12.3M-1704.9%
Net Income

$68.1M

Previous: $37.9M+79.7%
Operating Income

$149M

Previous: $114M+31.0%
Gross Profit

$161M

Previous: $101M+59.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.9M

Previous: $5.8M-32.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Trinity · Revenue · Quarterly

$798M

Q4 2023+35%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Trinity · $905M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Rail Products
    $682M+14.2%
  • Railcar Leasing and Services
    $223M+14.3%

Forward guidance

Trinity Industries provided 2024 EPS guidance of $1.30 to $1.50, reflecting improving margins offset by lower railcar sales and a normalized tax provision.

Tailwinds

  • Industry deliveries of approximately 40,000 railcars
  • Net investment in the lease fleet of $300 million to $400 million
  • Manufacturing capital expenditures of $50 million to $60 million
  • EPS of $1.30 to $1.50
  • Improving margins in both segments

Headwinds

  • Excludes items outside of our core business operations
  • Significantly lower planned railcar sales
  • Higher elimination of profit from intercompany railcar sales
  • A normalized tax provision as compared to 2023
  • The Rail Products Group faced challenges in the fourth quarter with the border closure and related congestion impacting deliveries and margins in the segment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

31 / 67 earnings

Positive

+19.1%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-25.4%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.0%+16.6%+5.2%
Q3 2025-2.7%-6.2%-4.7%
Q1 2025-2.9%-1.9%+2.5%
Q4 2024-8.3%-10.0%-14.1%
Q3 2024-8.8%-5.4%+5.5%
Q2 2024+2.8%+1.5%-0.2%
Q1 2024+15.5%+17.3%+20.9%
Q4 2023-7.3%-7.4%-0.5%
Q3 2023+15.9%+13.7%+23.8%
Q2 2023+2.5%-1.9%-4.4%
Q1 2023-8.7%-9.7%-9.9%
Q4 2022-9.6%-5.5%-19.4%
Q3 2022+7.4%+20.1%+30.1%
Q2 2022+6.0%+7.7%+7.3%
Q1 2022-7.0%-11.1%-18.4%
Q4 2021-5.8%-5.5%+9.7%
Q3 2021+0.5%-2.1%-6.0%
Q2 2021-0.8%+0.0%+5.9%
Q1 2021-2.9%-1.8%-0.5%
Q4 2020-2.8%+2.2%-10.2%
Q3 2020-5.7%-7.3%+0.8%
Q2 2020-7.7%-8.5%-4.9%
Q1 2020+10.4%+4.1%+14.3%
Q4 2019+5.7%-1.0%-26.6%
Q3 2019+1.1%+6.2%+15.0%
Q2 2019-9.1%-5.9%-19.2%
Q1 2019-11.5%-9.5%-13.9%
Q4 2018-2.3%-6.6%-18.1%
Q3 2018-18.3%-23.3%-13.8%
Q2 2018+1.6%+2.1%-0.1%
Q1 2018-0.1%+0.4%+11.0%
Q4 2017-1.4%-6.1%-9.9%
Q3 2017-8.2%-7.8%-1.0%
Q2 2017-3.4%-1.8%+2.9%
Q1 2017+3.0%+0.5%-2.6%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.8%-4.0%
Q3 2016-2.4%-4.8%+22.0%
Q2 2016+4.2%+1.0%+17.0%
Q1 2016+4.0%
Q4 2015-25.4%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q2 2015+4.6%
Q1 2015-12.5%
Q4 2014+6.8%
Q3 2014-2.1%
Q2 2014+1.5%
Q1 2014+4.8%
Q4 2013+10.4%
Q3 2013+7.3%
Q2 2013+6.2%
Q1 2013-3.3%
Q4 2012-3.6%
Q3 2012-3.9%
Q2 2012+19.1%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+4.2%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-13.8%
Q1 2010-4.1%
Q1 2011+6.6%
Q4 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009-3.2%
Q3 2010-3.2%
Q2 2010-1.7%
Q4 2009-1.7%
Q2 2009-1.7%

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