NYSE$SHAK

Shake Shack Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Showed steady recovery with significant improvement in sales and profitability.

Shake Shack Inc. reported a 17.3% decrease in total revenue to $130.4 million for the third quarter of 2020, but showed sequential improvement compared to the prior quarter. Same-Shack sales improved sequentially, and Shack-level operating profit margin improved to 14.8%. The company opened six system-wide Shacks and had $191.8 million in cash and marketable securities on hand.

  • Average Weekly Sales and Same-Shack Sales Show Significant Sequential Improvement in both Urban and Suburban Shacks
  • Sales in Company-Owned Digital Channels Tripled Compared to Prior Year
  • Shack-level Operating Profit Improves to 14.8% Compared to 2.2% in Second Quarter 2020
  • Total revenue decreased 17.3% to $130.4 million

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$130M

Previous: $158M-17.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.11

Previous: $0.26-142.3%
Same-Shack Sales Growth

-31.7%

No prior period
System-Wide Sales

$195M

No prior period
New Licensed Shacks

2

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$47M

Previous: -$80.9M+41.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$52.6M

Previous: -$70.6M+25.5%
Net Income

-$5.56M

Previous: $10.3M-153.7%
Operating Income

-$6.8M

Previous: $8.16M-183.3%
Gross Profit

$34K

Previous: -$85.5M+100.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$175M

Previous: $44.5M+293.0%
Total Assets

$1.14B

Previous: $963M+18.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.34M

Previous: $1.88M-28.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Shake Shack · Revenue · Quarterly

$130M

Q3 2020-17.3%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Shake Shack · $126M total across 1 segment · Q3 2020

  • Shack sales
    $126M-17.1%

Forward guidance

Due to the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the company is not providing full guidance for fiscal year 2020. Sales are expected to be pressured in the coming months due to colder weather and increasing COVID cases. The company expects to open 18 to 20 new company-operated Shacks and 5 to 6 new licensed Shacks in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Company expects to open 18 to 20 new company-operated Shacks by the end of fiscal 2020.
  • Company expects to open five to six new licensed Shacks in the fourth quarter 2020.
  • Company expects to open between 35 and 40 new company-operated Shacks in fiscal 2021.
  • Company expects to open 15 to 20 new licensed Shacks in fiscal 2021.
  • The company has the benefit of a 53rd week in this fiscal year which will be accretive on an absolute dollar basis

Headwinds

  • Timing of return to pre-COVID levels is highly dependent upon the return of high traffic areas.
  • With the colder weather and the increasing number of reported COVID cases, it is expected that sales over the coming months will be pressured.
  • The underlying business continues to face a very challenging and volatile operating environment certainly through the end of this year.
  • The Company expects any ongoing improvement in Shack-level operating margin in the fourth quarter to face pressure.
  • Pre-opening expense is expected to more than double sequentially through the fourth quarter 2020 as the Company completes this year's opening schedule.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

22 / 49 earnings

Positive

+25.9%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-28.6%

Q1 2026

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-28.6%-31.8%-45.8%
Q4 2025+6.4%+4.3%-11.7%
Q3 2025+1.6%+5.2%-2.6%
Q1 2025+1.1%+12.5%+47.9%
Q4 2024+11.1%-0.5%-18.5%
Q3 2024+7.1%+8.7%+17.7%
Q2 2024+10.1%+13.3%+13.5%
Q1 2024+4.0%+1.8%-8.2%
Q4 2023+25.9%+25.0%+32.8%
Q3 2023+3.9%+1.0%+7.7%
Q2 2023+5.2%+5.3%-6.6%
Q1 2023+24.1%+24.9%+29.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.6%-6.4%
Q3 2022-9.5%-12.1%+0.0%
Q2 2022-5.3%-9.8%-14.6%
Q1 2022-8.7%-19.9%-20.8%
Q4 2021-8.5%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2021+19.9%+10.5%-8.0%
Q2 2021-2.0%-0.5%-7.4%
Q1 2021-15.8%-15.3%-16.0%
Q4 2020-5.5%-3.1%-8.2%
Q3 2020+2.0%+1.8%+24.9%
Q2 2020-11.5%-7.8%+23.0%
Q1 2020-4.8%+6.4%+7.6%
Q4 2019-15.7%-20.5%-41.9%
Q3 2019-19.3%-25.0%-27.4%
Q2 2019+15.2%+17.8%+38.9%
Q1 2019-1.3%-6.2%+0.6%
Q4 2018-0.8%-0.8%+6.0%
Q3 2018-10.8%-5.3%+5.0%
Q2 2018-9.4%-9.2%-2.8%
Q1 2018+18.3%+25.5%+27.2%
Q4 2017-4.1%-5.9%+3.5%
Q3 2017-5.4%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2017-6.3%-2.6%-7.5%
Q1 2017+6.3%+7.9%+11.0%
Q4 2016-1.8%-10.2%-6.8%
Q3 2016+13.1%+17.3%+17.0%
Q2 2016-7.8%-9.5%-17.4%
Q1 2016+9.6%
Q4 2013+7.0%
Q4 2015-11.3%
Q3 2014-5.0%
Q3 2015+2.2%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2014+10.7%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.4%
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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