NYSE$RSG

Republic Services Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a strong Q4 2022, delivering double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, earnings, and free cash flow, exceeding full-year expectations.

Republic Services, Inc. reported net income of $346.8 million, or $1.09 per diluted share, for the three months ended December 31, 2022. Total revenue growth of 19.5 percent includes 8.3 percent of organic growth and 11.2 percent of growth from acquisitions. The company exceeded full-year financial guidance by growing adjusted free cash flow 15 percent and adjusted EPS 18 percent.

  • Total revenue growth of 19.5 percent includes 8.3 percent of organic growth and 11.2 percent of growth from acquisitions.
  • Core price on total revenue increased revenue by 7.4 percent.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $965.0 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.3 percent of revenue.
  • EPS was $1.09 per share, an increase of 11.2 percent over the prior year and Adjusted EPS was $1.13 per share, an increase of 10.8 percent over the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.53B

Previous: $2.95B+19.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.13

Previous: $1.02+10.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$965M

Previous: $830M+16.3%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

27.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$529M

Previous: $412M+28.4%
Free Cash Flow

$277M

Previous: $237M+17.1%
Net Income

$347M

Previous: $313M+10.8%
Operating Income

$577M

Previous: $502M+15.1%
Gross Profit

$1.35B

Previous: $1.14B+18.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$143M

Previous: $29M+394.5%
Total Assets

$29.1B

Previous: $25B+16.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $7.9M+1.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Republic Services · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.53B

Q4 2022+19.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Republic Services · $3.21B total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Collection
    $2.41B+12.3%
  • Environmental Solutions (net)
    $417M+355.2%
  • Landfill (net)
    $382M+6.0%

Forward guidance

Republic expects to deliver high single-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow in 2023, even with the headwinds from lower recycled commodity prices and higher interest rates.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue to be in the range of $14.650 billion to $14.800 billion.
  • Growth from average yield on total revenue of approximately 5.5%
  • Volume growth to be in the range of 0.5% to 1.0%.
  • Average yield on related business revenue is expected to be 6.5%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $4.275 billion to $4.325 billion.

Headwinds

  • Lower recycled commodity prices
  • Higher interest rates
  • Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share to be in the range of $5.15 to $5.23.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow to be in the range of $1.86 billion to $1.90 billion.
  • Expects to receive between $1.65 billion to $1.67 billion of property and equipment, net of proceeds from the sale of property and equipment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+5.9%

Q4 2013

Best reaction

-6.6%

Q3 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.8%+1.1%+4.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+0.0%-0.9%
Q3 2025-2.1%-1.7%+3.4%
Q2 2025-0.4%+0.2%+1.0%
Q1 2025+1.2%+4.1%+5.0%
Q4 2024+3.1%+2.3%+3.3%
Q3 2024-0.8%-0.9%+8.9%
Q2 2024-4.9%-3.5%+3.6%
Q1 2024-3.8%-4.1%-5.9%
Q4 2023+0.6%-0.7%+3.6%
Q3 2023-1.1%+0.6%+8.7%
Q2 2023+0.4%-2.0%-3.7%
Q1 2023+5.4%+5.6%+2.8%
Q4 2022+4.1%+5.7%+4.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%-1.8%+2.4%
Q2 2022+1.1%+1.7%+1.7%
Q1 2022+1.2%-3.3%+0.6%
Q4 2021-5.8%-7.2%-0.9%
Q3 2021+4.2%+3.9%+4.6%
Q2 2021+2.6%+3.8%+7.1%
Q1 2021+1.9%+3.1%+0.5%
Q4 2020-1.8%-1.7%+8.4%
Q3 2020+3.4%+8.7%+1.9%
Q2 2020+4.7%+5.1%+8.1%
Q1 2020+1.7%+5.3%+12.5%
Q4 2019+2.0%+1.8%-13.7%
Q3 2019-0.4%-1.9%+0.9%
Q2 2019+4.1%+3.2%+0.8%
Q1 2019+1.6%+4.4%+6.6%
Q4 2018-0.9%+0.3%+0.7%
Q3 2018+1.0%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2018+2.7%+2.7%+3.7%
Q1 2018+3.9%+5.1%+5.1%
Q4 2017-4.1%-2.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-1.0%-0.6%-0.5%
Q2 2017-0.8%-0.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017-0.4%+0.2%-0.3%
Q4 2016+2.8%+3.6%+7.2%
Q3 2016+1.3%+0.0%+8.5%
Q2 2016-0.8%-1.4%-2.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q3 2015+0.1%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q1 2015+3.7%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.9%
Q1 2014-1.3%
Q4 2013+5.9%
Q3 2013+3.0%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q1 2013+3.3%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-6.6%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2012-0.1%
Q4 2011+0.1%
Q3 2011-3.6%
Q2 2011+0.0%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q4 2007-1.4%
Q4 2010-1.4%
Q3 2010-5.0%
Q2 2010+1.5%
Q1 2009+4.7%
Q1 2010+0.2%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2008+3.2%
Q3 2009+3.2%
Q2 2009+2.6%
Q4 2008+2.6%
Q2 2008+2.6%

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