NYSE$PRG

Prog Holdings Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter results as a stand-alone public company.

PROG Holdings reported a 6.5% increase in revenue to $605.7 million. Diluted EPS was $0.62, while non-GAAP diluted EPS increased by 46.2% to $0.95. The Board of Directors authorized a new $300 million share repurchase program.

  • Revenues of $605.7 million, up 6.5%
  • Diluted EPS of $0.62; Non-GAAP Diluted EPS $0.95, up 46.2%
  • Earnings before taxes of $66.3 million; Adjusted EBITDA of $90.0 million, up 35.9%
  • Board of Directors authorizes new $300 million share repurchase program

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$606M

Previous: $1B-39.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.95

Previous: $1.15-17.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$90M

Previous: $66.2M+36.0%
Provision Rate

4.5%

Previous: 6.6%-31.8%
Capital Expenditures

$13.5M

Previous: $25.9M-48.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$109M

Previous: -$59.5M-83.8%
Net Income

$42.3M

Previous: -$107M+139.5%
Operating Income

$66.5M

Previous: -$83.3M+179.8%
Gross Profit

$500M

Previous: $969M-48.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$36.6M

Previous: $57.8M-36.6%
Total Assets

$1.32B

Previous: $3.3B-60.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$19.8M

Previous: $6.29M+215.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Prog Holdings · Revenue · Quarterly

$606M

Q4 2020-39.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Prog Holdings · $594M total across 1 segment · Q4 2020

  • Progressive Leasing
    $594M

Forward guidance

The Company is providing outlook for the first quarter of 2021, but will not be providing annual guidance at this time, as the economic uncertainty created by the pandemic, and uncertainty regarding the amount, nature and timing of any government stimulus, continues to impact our POS partners and our customers in a manner that limits its visibility into its full-year performance for 2021.

Tailwinds

  • PROG Holdings - Total Revenues between $650,000 and $670,000 (in thousands)
  • PROG Holdings - Net Earnings between 55,000 and 58,000 (in thousands)
  • PROG Holdings - Adjusted EBITDA between 185,000 and 90,000 (in thousands)
  • PROG Holdings - Diluted EPS between 0.81 and 0.87
  • PROG Holdings - Diluted Non-GAAP EPS between 0.89 and 0.95

Headwinds

  • Economic uncertainty created by the pandemic
  • Uncertainty regarding the amount, nature and timing of any government stimulus
  • Impacts on POS partners
  • Impacts on customers
  • Limits visibility into its full-year performance for 2021

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.3%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

36 / 63 earnings

Positive

+24.2%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-43.1%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%+24.2%+26.6%
Q4 2025+6.6%+12.7%-18.1%
Q3 2025-0.8%-3.5%-14.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-2.6%+6.5%
Q3 2024-8.7%-8.6%+1.0%
Q2 2024+22.2%+29.9%+36.4%
Q1 2024+6.6%+5.2%+8.3%
Q4 2023-11.3%-9.2%+6.7%
Q3 2023-0.4%-2.6%-4.4%
Q2 2023+14.9%+11.9%-7.3%
Q1 2023+17.6%+17.2%+29.6%
Q4 2022+5.9%+8.4%+1.2%
Q3 2022+11.8%+16.3%+33.3%
Q2 2022+8.3%+16.3%+10.7%
Q1 2022+2.0%+2.4%+6.3%
Q4 2021-12.8%-14.2%-19.1%
Q3 2021+13.0%+14.0%+9.6%
Q2 2021-3.7%-6.0%+5.1%
Q1 2021+3.1%+8.4%+6.7%
Q4 2020+0.8%-2.2%-9.3%
Q3 2020-4.5%+1.6%+18.2%
Q2 2020+16.8%+14.2%+26.0%
Q1 2020+24.2%+14.2%+58.2%
Q4 2019-22.8%-24.0%-73.3%
Q3 2019-11.6%-21.3%-22.1%
Q2 2019-1.4%-2.8%-4.4%
Q1 2019+7.1%+4.5%+2.2%
Q4 2018+5.2%+4.6%+2.5%
Q3 2018-6.0%-4.6%+0.9%
Q2 2018-0.1%-0.5%+16.0%
Q1 2018-7.4%-10.7%-9.5%
Q4 2017+7.6%+5.5%+19.8%
Q3 2017-12.2%-14.9%-16.1%
Q2 2017+13.9%+13.1%+8.8%
Q1 2017+14.4%+16.2%+11.9%
Q4 2016-8.6%-8.3%+1.9%
Q3 2016+9.2%+9.6%+30.8%
Q2 2016+9.8%+8.5%+12.7%
Q1 2016+3.9%
Q4 2015-6.0%
Q3 2015-24.3%
Q2 2015-9.2%
Q1 2015+14.5%
Q4 2014+1.6%
Q3 2014-4.1%
Q2 2014+0.8%
Q1 2014+0.6%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q3 2013+0.2%
Q2 2013+1.4%
Q1 2013-1.3%
Q4 2012+3.8%
Q3 2012-1.2%
Q2 2012+0.8%
Q1 2012+0.7%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q3 2011-4.2%
Q2 2011+2.3%
Q1 2011+1.7%
Q4 2010+2.2%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q2 2010-4.7%
Q1 2010-43.1%

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