NYSE$PRG

Prog Holdings Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Exceeded expectations in Q3 2023 and raised full-year financial outlook.

PROG Holdings' Q3 2023 results surpassed expectations, driven by strong portfolio performance and disciplined SG&A management. Consolidated revenues reached $582.9 million, with net earnings of $35.0 million and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.90.

  • Consolidated revenues were $582.9 million.
  • Earnings before taxes reached $48.1 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 10.4% year-over-year to $71.7 million.
  • Diluted EPS was $0.76, with a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.90, up 32.4% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$583M

Previous: $626M-6.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.90

Previous: $0.68+32.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.95M

Previous: -$7.49M+7.2%
Free Cash Flow

$28.1M

Previous: $8.52M+229.5%
Net Income

$35M

Previous: $16M+118.8%
Operating Income

$54.9M

Previous: $36.8M+49.1%
Gross Profit

$474M

Previous: $513M-7.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$295M

Previous: $222M+32.9%
Total Assets

$1.49B

Previous: $1.49B-0.2%
R&D Expense

$0.00

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$6.82M

Previous: $4.89M+39.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Prog Holdings · Revenue · Quarterly

$583M

Q3 2023-6.9%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Prog Holdings · $565M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Progressive Leasing
    $564M
  • Other
    $1.15M

Forward guidance

The company is updating its full year 2023 consolidated earnings and revenue outlook due to higher-than-expected performance in the third quarter and increased expectations for fourth quarter results.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenues between $2,380,000 and $2,400,000 (in thousands)
  • Net Earnings between 144,500 and 146,500 (in thousands)
  • Adjusted EBITDA between 295,000 and 300,000 (in thousands)
  • Diluted EPS between 3.06 and 3.16
  • Diluted Non-GAAP EPS between 3.55 and 3.65

Headwinds

  • Assumes continued soft demand for consumer durable goods.
  • Assumes no material changes in the Company's decisioning posture or portfolio performance.
  • Assumes no impact from additional share purchases.
  • PROG Holdings - Total Revenues between $549,137 and $569,137 (in thousands)
  • PROG Holdings - Net Earnings between 24,237 and 26,237 (in thousands)

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.3%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

36 / 63 earnings

Positive

+24.2%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-43.1%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%+24.2%+26.6%
Q4 2025+6.6%+12.7%-18.1%
Q3 2025-0.8%-3.5%-14.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-2.6%+6.5%
Q3 2024-8.7%-8.6%+1.0%
Q2 2024+22.2%+29.9%+36.4%
Q1 2024+6.6%+5.2%+8.3%
Q4 2023-11.3%-9.2%+6.7%
Q3 2023-0.4%-2.6%-4.4%
Q2 2023+14.9%+11.9%-7.3%
Q1 2023+17.6%+17.2%+29.6%
Q4 2022+5.9%+8.4%+1.2%
Q3 2022+11.8%+16.3%+33.3%
Q2 2022+8.3%+16.3%+10.7%
Q1 2022+2.0%+2.4%+6.3%
Q4 2021-12.8%-14.2%-19.1%
Q3 2021+13.0%+14.0%+9.6%
Q2 2021-3.7%-6.0%+5.1%
Q1 2021+3.1%+8.4%+6.7%
Q4 2020+0.8%-2.2%-9.3%
Q3 2020-4.5%+1.6%+18.2%
Q2 2020+16.8%+14.2%+26.0%
Q1 2020+24.2%+14.2%+58.2%
Q4 2019-22.8%-24.0%-73.3%
Q3 2019-11.6%-21.3%-22.1%
Q2 2019-1.4%-2.8%-4.4%
Q1 2019+7.1%+4.5%+2.2%
Q4 2018+5.2%+4.6%+2.5%
Q3 2018-6.0%-4.6%+0.9%
Q2 2018-0.1%-0.5%+16.0%
Q1 2018-7.4%-10.7%-9.5%
Q4 2017+7.6%+5.5%+19.8%
Q3 2017-12.2%-14.9%-16.1%
Q2 2017+13.9%+13.1%+8.8%
Q1 2017+14.4%+16.2%+11.9%
Q4 2016-8.6%-8.3%+1.9%
Q3 2016+9.2%+9.6%+30.8%
Q2 2016+9.8%+8.5%+12.7%
Q1 2016+3.9%
Q4 2015-6.0%
Q3 2015-24.3%
Q2 2015-9.2%
Q1 2015+14.5%
Q4 2014+1.6%
Q3 2014-4.1%
Q2 2014+0.8%
Q1 2014+0.6%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q3 2013+0.2%
Q2 2013+1.4%
Q1 2013-1.3%
Q4 2012+3.8%
Q3 2012-1.2%
Q2 2012+0.8%
Q1 2012+0.7%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q3 2011-4.2%
Q2 2011+2.3%
Q1 2011+1.7%
Q4 2010+2.2%
Q3 2010-1.4%
Q2 2010-4.7%
Q1 2010-43.1%

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