NYSE$POST

Post holdings · Q1 2025 earnings

Q1 2025 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Post Holdings reported results for the first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2024, with increases in net sales, operating profit, and net earnings.

Post Holdings reported a solid first fiscal quarter for 2025, with net sales increasing by 0.4% to $1,974.7 million, driven by acquisitions and growth in Foodservice. Operating profit rose by 2.3% to $214.1 million, and net earnings saw a significant 28.6% increase to $113.3 million. The company also raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook.

  • First quarter net sales reached $2.0 billion, a slight increase from the prior year.
  • Operating profit was $214.1 million, showing a 2.3% increase compared to the prior year period.
  • Net earnings increased by 28.6% to $113.3 million, and Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was $369.9 million.
  • Post Holdings raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) outlook to $1,420-$1,460 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.97B

Previous: $1.97B+0.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.73

Previous: $1.35+28.1%
Adjusted EBITDA

$370M

Previous: $360M+2.9%
Adj. EBITDA Margin

18.7%

Previous: 18.3%+2.2%
Net Earnings Margin

5.7%

Previous: 4.5%+26.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$139M

Previous: -$80.8M-72.0%
Net Income

$113M

Previous: $88.1M+28.6%
Operating Income

$214M

Previous: $209M+2.3%
Gross Profit

$595M

Previous: $573M+4.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Post · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.97B

Q1 2025+0.4%vs Q1 2024
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Post · $1.95B total across 4 segments · Q4 2023

  • Post Consumer Brands
    $1.01B+71.5%
  • Foodservice
    $570M-9.0%
  • Refrigerated Retail
    $233M-6.4%
  • Weetabix
    $135M+15.5%

Forward guidance

Post management raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1,420-$1,460 million, with key assumptions related to avian influenza and capital expenditures.

Tailwinds

  • Post expects to recover any second fiscal quarter cost before pricing impact in the balance of the fiscal year.
  • Post management's guidance range assumes recovery of lost egg supply over the remainder of the fiscal year.
  • No additional avian influenza outbreaks are assumed within Post's controlled farms.
  • Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 are projected to range between $380-$420 million.
  • Significant investments are planned for network optimization and pet food safety and capacity within Post Consumer Brands.

Headwinds

  • The cost before pricing impact on the second fiscal quarter is estimated to be a headwind in the range of $30-$50 million due to avian influenza.
  • The actual result for avian influenza impact could vary significantly from the estimated range due to volatility in egg market prices.
  • The guidance does not provide a reconciliation of forward-looking Adjusted EBITDA to GAAP due to inherent difficulties in forecasting certain amounts.
  • Adjustments for non-GAAP measures, such as income/expense on swaps, integration costs, and mark-to-market adjustments, could be significant.
  • The prospective financial information is speculative and actual results may vary materially from the assumptions.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2025

Historical avgQ1 2025

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

32 / 62 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-17.4%

Q3 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026-1.0%+1.3%-12.1%
Q1 2026+9.8%+6.2%+1.1%
Q4 2025-9.6%-4.0%-5.8%
Q2 2025+0.3%-2.3%-1.3%
Q1 2025+6.3%+5.5%+10.4%
Q4 2024-3.0%+0.8%+7.0%
Q3 2024+4.0%+2.2%+5.9%
Q2 2024-2.1%+0.6%+1.7%
Q1 2024+8.8%+12.3%+12.3%
Q4 2023-1.5%-0.1%+3.9%
Q3 2023+3.0%+3.5%+4.8%
Q2 2023+0.1%-1.8%-4.1%
Q1 2023+0.2%-0.8%-3.5%
Q4 2022-0.7%+4.8%+1.4%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.8%-1.1%
Q2 2022+6.7%+3.9%+6.5%
Q1 2022-1.7%+0.4%-2.3%
Q4 2021-4.4%-2.1%+0.0%
Q3 2021+8.8%+10.9%+11.2%
Q2 2021+1.8%+1.7%+1.4%
Q1 2021+2.0%+3.1%+9.7%
Q4 2020-6.8%-1.3%+1.8%
Q3 2020-2.8%-3.4%-2.8%
Q2 2020+2.2%+0.5%+3.7%
Q1 2020-2.9%-0.2%-5.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%+0.1%+3.3%
Q3 2019-4.4%-8.1%-7.0%
Q2 2019-7.8%-5.6%-6.0%
Q1 2019+5.3%+4.6%+11.4%
Q4 2018+4.8%+0.1%+0.0%
Q3 2018+9.9%+12.7%+14.2%
Q2 2018+3.4%+1.1%+2.1%
Q1 2018-1.7%-2.3%+2.6%
Q4 2017+2.1%+0.6%-1.6%
Q3 2017+2.8%+1.8%+2.9%
Q2 2017-3.8%-0.6%+1.9%
Q1 2017+2.0%+1.2%+1.3%
Q4 2016-0.7%+2.5%+6.7%
Q3 2016-1.5%-2.3%+0.7%
Q2 2016+5.7%
Q1 2016+12.3%
Q4 2015+4.3%
Q3 2015+9.4%
Q2 2015+10.3%
Q1 2015+0.2%
Q4 2014+4.8%
Q3 2014-17.4%
Q2 2014-8.2%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+1.2%
Q3 2013-1.3%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012-0.9%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q4 2010-5.1%
Q3 2011-5.1%
Q2 2011-5.1%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-2.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q1 2012+1.6%

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