NYSE$POST

Post holdings · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported results for the first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2022 and Raised fiscal year 2023 outlook.

Post Holdings reported a strong first quarter with net sales of $1.6 billion and a significant increase in operating profit and net earnings. The company raised its fiscal year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,025-$1,065 million.

  • First quarter net sales reached $1.6 billion.
  • Operating profit was $149.9 million, and net earnings from continuing operations totaled $91.9 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $269.9 million.
  • Fiscal year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $1,025-$1,065 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.57B

Previous: $1.64B-4.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.08

Previous: $0.29+272.4%
Free Cash Flow

$91.9M

Previous: -$20.8M+541.8%
Net Income

$91.9M

Previous: -$20.8M+541.8%
Operating Income

$150M

Previous: $129M+16.5%
Gross Profit

$415M

Previous: $424M-2.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$607M

Previous: $1.16B-47.6%
Total Assets

$11.4B

Previous: $12.6B-10.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$17M

Previous: $14.2M+19.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Post · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.57B

Q1 2023-4.7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Post · $1.57B total across 4 segments · Q1 2023

  • Foodservice
    $601M+36.9%
  • Post Consumer Brands
    $555M+9.3%
  • Refrigerated Retail
    $293M+7.2%
  • Weetabix
    $118M-0.4%

Forward guidance

Post management has raised its guidance range for Adjusted EBITDA to $1,025-$1,065 million and expects fiscal year 2023 capital expenditures to range between $275-$300 million.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA outlook for fiscal year 2023 raised to $1,025-$1,065 million.
  • Capital expenditures are expected to range between $275-$300 million.
  • Includes $75-$85 million investment in RTD shake manufacturing
  • Includes $75-$85 million investment in precooked eggs
  • Includes $75-$85 million investment in cage-free eggs

Headwinds

  • Significant volatility in the cost or availability of inputs to Post’s businesses.
  • Disruptions or inefficiencies in Post’s supply chain.
  • Post’s high leverage and ability to service its outstanding debt.
  • Changes in economic conditions and disruptions in the U.S. and global capital and credit markets.
  • The impacts of public health crises (including the COVID-19 pandemic).

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

32 / 62 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-17.4%

Q3 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026-1.0%+1.3%-12.1%
Q1 2026+9.8%+6.2%+1.1%
Q4 2025-9.6%-4.0%-5.8%
Q2 2025+0.3%-2.3%-1.3%
Q1 2025+6.3%+5.5%+10.4%
Q4 2024-3.0%+0.8%+7.0%
Q3 2024+4.0%+2.2%+5.9%
Q2 2024-2.1%+0.6%+1.7%
Q1 2024+8.8%+12.3%+12.3%
Q4 2023-1.5%-0.1%+3.9%
Q3 2023+3.0%+3.5%+4.8%
Q2 2023+0.1%-1.8%-4.1%
Q1 2023+0.2%-0.8%-3.5%
Q4 2022-0.7%+4.8%+1.4%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.8%-1.1%
Q2 2022+6.7%+3.9%+6.5%
Q1 2022-1.7%+0.4%-2.3%
Q4 2021-4.4%-2.1%+0.0%
Q3 2021+8.8%+10.9%+11.2%
Q2 2021+1.8%+1.7%+1.4%
Q1 2021+2.0%+3.1%+9.7%
Q4 2020-6.8%-1.3%+1.8%
Q3 2020-2.8%-3.4%-2.8%
Q2 2020+2.2%+0.5%+3.7%
Q1 2020-2.9%-0.2%-5.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%+0.1%+3.3%
Q3 2019-4.4%-8.1%-7.0%
Q2 2019-7.8%-5.6%-6.0%
Q1 2019+5.3%+4.6%+11.4%
Q4 2018+4.8%+0.1%+0.0%
Q3 2018+9.9%+12.7%+14.2%
Q2 2018+3.4%+1.1%+2.1%
Q1 2018-1.7%-2.3%+2.6%
Q4 2017+2.1%+0.6%-1.6%
Q3 2017+2.8%+1.8%+2.9%
Q2 2017-3.8%-0.6%+1.9%
Q1 2017+2.0%+1.2%+1.3%
Q4 2016-0.7%+2.5%+6.7%
Q3 2016-1.5%-2.3%+0.7%
Q2 2016+5.7%
Q1 2016+12.3%
Q4 2015+4.3%
Q3 2015+9.4%
Q2 2015+10.3%
Q1 2015+0.2%
Q4 2014+4.8%
Q3 2014-17.4%
Q2 2014-8.2%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+1.2%
Q3 2013-1.3%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012-0.9%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q4 2010-5.1%
Q3 2011-5.1%
Q2 2011-5.1%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-2.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q1 2012+1.6%

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