NYSE$PNC

PNC Financial Services Group Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income of $0.9 billion and diluted EPS of $1.85, or $3.16 as adjusted, driven by revenue growth, increased average loans and deposits.

PNC Financial Services Group reported a mixed Q4 2023, with net income at $0.9 billion, or $1.85 diluted EPS, which included $525 million of post-tax expenses. Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.16. Revenue increased by 2%, driven by strong noninterest income growth. Average loans increased by 2%, and average deposits grew modestly.

  • Revenue increased 2% due to strong noninterest income growth.
  • Core noninterest expense increased 5% primarily reflecting higher business activity.
  • Average loans increased 2%.
  • Average deposits grew modestly.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.36B

Previous: $5.76B-7.0%
EPS (adj)

$3.16

Previous: $3.49-9.5%
Net Interest Margin

2.7%

Previous: 2.9%-8.9%
Net Income

$883M

Previous: $1.55B-43.0%
Operating Income

$1.06B

Previous: $1.88B-43.9%
Gross Profit

$5.37B

Previous: $5.75B-6.5%

Revenue & EPS history

PNC · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.36B

Q4 2023-7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PNC · $1.17B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Retail Banking
    $1.09B-60.1%
  • Asset Mgmt Group
    $73M-81.6%

Forward guidance

PNC anticipates a mild recession starting in mid-2024, with a real GDP contraction of less than 1% lasting into late 2024. The unemployment rate is expected to increase throughout 2024, peaking at close to 5% in early 2025. Inflation is expected to slow with weaker demand, moving back to the Federal Reserve's 2% objective by the second half of 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Economic growth accelerated in the first three quarters of 2023.
  • Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening to slow inflation.
  • PNC expects the federal funds rate to remain unchanged in the near term, between 5.25% and 5.50% through mid-2024.
  • Federal funds rate cuts starting in mid-2024 in response to the recession.
  • Inflation will slow with weaker demand, moving back to the Federal Reserve's 2% objective by the second half of 2024.

Headwinds

  • Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening to slow inflation is weighing on interest-rate sensitive industries.
  • Sectors where interest rates play an outsized role, such as business investment and consumer spending on durable goods, will contract in 2024.
  • PNC’s baseline outlook is for a mild recession starting in mid-2024.
  • Small contraction in real GDP of less than 1%, lasting into late 2024.
  • The unemployment rate will increase throughout 2024, peaking at close to 5% in early 2025.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

37 / 73 earnings

Positive

+6.3%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-9.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+4.2%+2.6%-3.7%
Q1 2026+2.5%+2.6%-3.7%
Q3 2025-4.0%-4.0%-3.0%
Q2 2025+0.6%-0.2%+4.4%
Q1 2025+0.0%-1.9%+15.5%
Q4 2024-0.9%-0.9%-3.3%
Q3 2024+0.7%+0.5%+10.3%
Q2 2024+6.3%+3.8%+1.7%
Q1 2024-1.5%+1.8%+7.6%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.2%+9.8%
Q3 2023-2.6%-4.6%-0.7%
Q2 2023+4.1%+5.6%-2.9%
Q1 2023+3.0%+5.7%-8.1%
Q4 2022-8.5%-1.6%-2.0%
Q3 2022+1.9%-0.8%+8.4%
Q2 2022+2.5%+6.1%+15.7%
Q1 2022-1.5%-0.2%-11.8%
Q4 2021-6.2%-9.6%-9.4%
Q3 2021-0.8%+5.1%+0.5%
Q2 2021+0.1%-6.1%+0.6%
Q1 2021+1.7%+0.2%+14.1%
Q4 2020-3.4%-3.2%+0.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%-2.2%+9.1%
Q2 2020+3.7%+1.7%+10.4%
Q1 2020-9.0%+3.1%-2.2%
Q4 2019-4.5%-4.1%-3.6%
Q3 2019+0.6%+2.6%+6.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+0.6%-8.5%
Q1 2019+1.8%+4.0%+2.9%
Q4 2018+0.6%+3.4%+2.5%
Q3 2018-4.6%-3.3%+2.0%
Q2 2018+2.1%+3.2%+4.0%
Q1 2018-5.7%-7.1%-1.0%
Q4 2017+0.5%+1.8%+0.1%
Q3 2017-0.2%-0.4%-2.1%
Q2 2017+0.0%-0.7%+0.6%
Q1 2017+2.1%+0.4%+4.1%
Q4 2016-3.4%-1.4%+4.4%
Q3 2016+0.3%+4.2%+20.5%
Q2 2016-0.9%-0.3%+2.6%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015-1.8%
Q3 2015-1.6%
Q2 2015+1.8%
Q1 2015-2.0%
Q4 2014+2.7%
Q3 2014-3.3%
Q2 2014-5.6%
Q1 2014+2.0%
Q4 2013+4.3%
Q3 2013+3.0%
Q2 2013+1.9%
Q1 2013+0.7%
Q4 2012+3.4%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2012-5.0%
Q2 2012-0.4%
Q1 2012+0.7%
Q3 2011-3.6%
Q2 2011-3.6%
Q1 2011+1.3%
Q4 2007-2.8%
Q4 2010-2.8%
Q3 2010-0.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2009+5.3%
Q1 2010+2.6%
Q4 2009+0.8%
Q3 2008+3.0%
Q3 2009+3.0%
Q2 2008-7.8%
Q4 2008-7.8%
Q2 2009-7.8%

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