NYSE$NCLH

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Norwegian Cruise Line's Great Cruise Comeback was on track with 11 ships resuming cruising, showing positive trends in onboard revenue and guest satisfaction. However, the Delta variant caused a slowdown in bookings during the quarter.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reported increased revenue to $153.1 million compared to $6.5 million in 2020 as cruise voyages resumed in the quarter. The company had approximately 40% of its capacity operating by the end of the third quarter 2021 with the fleet in service being cash flow positive in the quarter. Occupancy in the third quarter 2021 was 57.4%, reflecting the Company’s self-imposed occupancy limits.

  • The Company had approximately 40% of its capacity operating by the end of the third quarter 2021 with the fleet in service being cash flow positive in the quarter.
  • Occupancy in the third quarter 2021 was 57.4%, reflecting the Company’s self-imposed occupancy limits.
  • Approximately 75% of capacity is expected to be operating by year-end 2021 with the full fleet back in operation by April 1, 2022.
  • The Company expects to be profitable for the second half of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$153M

Previous: $6.52M+2248.6%
EPS (adj)

-$2.17

Previous: -$2.35+7.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$540M

Previous: -$873M+38.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.39B

Previous: -$1.55B+10.6%
Net Income

-$846M

Previous: -$677M-24.9%
Operating Income

-$689M

Previous: -$518M-33.1%
Gross Profit

-$287M

Previous: -$190M-50.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.93B

Previous: $2.36B-17.9%
Total Assets

$18.7B

Previous: $17.4B+7.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$39.9M

Previous: $25.9M+54.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Norwegian Cruise Line · Revenue · Quarterly

$153M

Q3 2021+2,248.6%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company expects to report a net loss for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2021 and expects to report a net loss until the Company is able to resume regular voyages. Based on its current trajectory and market and public health conditions, the Company expects to be profitable for the second half of 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Strong Future Demand Across All Three Brands
  • Company Expects to be Operating Cash Flow Positive in Late First Quarter 2022
  • Company Expects to be Profitable for Second Half 2022
  • Net bookings have materially improved over the past six weeks with particular strength for bookings related to sailings in the second half of 2022 and into 2023.
  • The Company’s overall cumulative booked position for full year 2022 is in line with 2019’s record levels at higher pricing even when including the dilutive impact of future cruise credits (“FCCs”).

Headwinds

  • As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company cannot estimate the impact on its business, financial condition or near- or longer-term financial or operational results with certainty.
  • The Company will report a net loss for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2021.
  • The Company expects to report a net loss until the Company is able to resume regular voyages.
  • Net booking volumes in the third quarter 2021 were negatively impacted by the Delta variant.
  • The resulting slowdown in net booking volumes was heavily weighted to sailings in the fourth quarter of 2021 and early 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

28 / 57 earnings

Positive

+18.6%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-15.7%

Q1 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.6%-9.2%-3.3%
Q4 2025-10.6%-19.1%-21.8%
Q3 2025-15.4%-14.0%-15.2%
Q1 2025-7.8%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2024-5.3%-15.6%-23.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+8.8%+12.8%
Q2 2024-6.5%-17.4%-3.6%
Q1 2024-15.7%-14.4%-12.3%
Q4 2023+17.4%+21.1%+31.4%
Q3 2023-3.9%-3.6%+20.7%
Q2 2023-15.5%-18.7%-24.9%
Q1 2023+7.6%+5.8%+11.2%
Q4 2022-8.2%-1.6%-19.6%
Q3 2022-5.3%+7.1%-5.7%
Q2 2022+0.2%+4.7%+5.5%
Q1 2022-3.3%+1.7%-13.7%
Q4 2021+1.9%-4.2%+3.0%
Q3 2021-0.0%+5.3%-31.8%
Q2 2021+2.0%+8.6%+1.8%
Q1 2021-4.6%-7.3%+7.6%
Q4 2020-5.5%-0.3%-14.2%
Q3 2020+18.6%+18.2%+60.6%
Q2 2020+2.0%+14.0%+34.3%
Q1 2020+5.9%+20.6%+98.8%
Q4 2019-9.7%-24.4%-83.2%
Q3 2019-0.5%-1.5%+5.1%
Q2 2019+4.2%+5.9%+9.4%
Q1 2019+1.0%-1.8%-8.3%
Q4 2018+3.1%+3.5%+3.6%
Q3 2018+1.6%+3.1%-0.9%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.3%+9.1%
Q1 2018-5.1%-6.6%-1.3%
Q4 2017-1.4%-4.2%-12.5%
Q3 2017-0.6%-0.8%-1.0%
Q2 2017+3.0%+0.2%-1.4%
Q1 2017-5.1%-7.7%-8.3%
Q4 2016+5.1%+5.3%+4.7%
Q3 2016-3.0%+5.6%+13.7%
Q2 2016-13.2%-10.5%-19.9%
Q1 2016-5.2%
Q4 2015+8.7%
Q3 2015-7.6%
Q2 2015-1.3%
Q1 2015+11.1%
Q4 2014+6.9%
Q3 2014+6.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2014+3.5%
Q4 2011+0.9%
Q4 2013-5.2%
Q3 2012+0.5%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q2 2012+0.2%
Q2 2013-3.9%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.5%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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