NYSE$MTG

MGIC Investment Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

MGIC Investment Corporation reported strong financial results, reflecting favorable housing market trends and a record volume of new business, while navigating the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

MGIC Investment Corporation reported a net income of $151.4 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted net operating income (Non-GAAP) was $149.5 million, or $0.43 per diluted share. The company wrote $33.2 billion of new insurance in the fourth quarter, contributing to a more than 10% year-over-year increase in insurance in force.

  • Net income for the quarter was $151.4 million, or $0.44 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted net operating income for the quarter was $149.5 million, or $0.43 per diluted share.
  • New insurance written was $33.2 billion, reflecting the resilience of the purchase mortgage market.
  • Insurance in force increased by 3.2% during the quarter and 10.9% compared to the previous year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$302M

Previous: $312M-3.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.43

Previous: $0.49-12.2%
New Insurance Written (NIW)

$33.2B

Previous: $19.3B+72.0%
Insurance In Force (IIF)

$247B

Previous: $222B+10.9%
Loss Ratio

17.5%

Previous: 8.9%+96.6%
Underwriting Expense Ratio

19.4%

Previous: 19.6%-1.0%
Net Premium Yield (bps)

43.1

Previous: 48.4-11.0%
Capital Expenditures

$1.1M

Previous: $1.56M-29.5%
Free Cash Flow

$222M

Previous: $150M+48.4%
Net Income

$151M

Previous: $177M-14.5%
Operating Income

$190M

Previous: $223M-14.6%
Gross Profit

$1.02B

Previous: $1.03B-0.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$288M

Previous: $162M+77.9%
Total Assets

$7.35B

Previous: $6.23B+18.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$13.8M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

MGIC · Revenue · Quarterly

$302M

Q4 2020-3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

MGIC is encouraged about the continued resiliency of the housing market, but there is still uncertainty about the timing and pace of the economic recovery and the long-term impact of the governmental and GSE response to aid consumers impacted by the pandemic.

Tailwinds

  • MGIC finished 2020 with strong financial results.
  • The housing market has been resilient.
  • MGIC wrote $112.1 billion of new insurance in 2020, including $33.2 billion in the fourth quarter.
  • Insurance in force increased more than 10% year-over-year.
  • MGIC further strengthened its already strong capital and liquidity positions.

Headwinds

  • There is still uncertainty about the timing and pace of the economic recovery.
  • There is uncertainty about the long-term impact of the governmental and GSE response to aid consumers impacted by the pandemic.
  • The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic impacted higher losses incurred, especially in the second quarter of the year.
  • Persistency was lower due to the strong refinance market.
  • Primary delinquency inventory increased due to the adverse economic impact of COVID-19.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

37 / 68 earnings

Positive

+35.4%

Q4 2012

Best reaction

-65.7%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.0%-9.9%-13.5%
Q4 2025-5.2%-0.9%-2.8%
Q3 2025+0.8%+2.5%+8.2%
Q1 2025+1.6%+4.4%+6.2%
Q4 2024+1.8%+0.5%-6.0%
Q3 2024+1.2%+3.8%+8.8%
Q2 2024-1.0%-5.5%+2.7%
Q1 2024+1.1%+3.3%+3.6%
Q4 2023-1.2%-4.8%-2.0%
Q3 2023+1.4%+6.3%+5.4%
Q2 2023+5.3%+7.9%+6.0%
Q1 2023-1.4%+1.3%+6.8%
Q4 2022+1.2%-2.4%-1.5%
Q3 2022-1.8%-1.2%-2.5%
Q2 2022+3.5%+3.5%-0.3%
Q1 2022-0.5%-3.8%+1.8%
Q4 2021-0.7%+1.3%-4.7%
Q3 2021-6.8%-4.3%-14.0%
Q2 2021+1.8%+3.8%+10.6%
Q1 2021-8.1%-8.0%-4.5%
Q4 2020+1.7%-3.7%+1.3%
Q3 2020-4.0%+3.7%+16.7%
Q2 2020+1.7%+3.4%+12.1%
Q1 2020+5.9%+0.0%+45.5%
Q4 2019+3.0%+1.1%-9.4%
Q3 2019+2.8%+3.0%+2.5%
Q2 2019+3.2%-3.0%-5.1%
Q1 2019+3.6%+5.3%-0.9%
Q4 2018+2.0%+1.0%+13.6%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-4.8%
Q2 2018+9.7%+10.7%+11.1%
Q1 2018-3.9%-4.2%-0.7%
Q4 2017+3.2%+4.0%-5.3%
Q3 2017+5.4%+4.5%+9.8%
Q2 2017+0.6%-1.4%-4.4%
Q1 2017-1.6%-0.5%-3.0%
Q4 2016+2.1%+1.0%+4.4%
Q3 2016+6.7%+7.3%+13.7%
Q2 2016+7.2%+8.5%+23.4%
Q1 2016-4.5%
Q4 2015-13.7%
Q3 2015+2.2%
Q2 2015-2.4%
Q1 2015+2.1%
Q4 2014+0.6%
Q3 2014+6.0%
Q2 2014-7.2%
Q1 2014+6.4%
Q4 2013-7.6%
Q3 2013+12.9%
Q2 2013+12.3%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012+35.4%
Q3 2012-3.0%
Q2 2012-65.7%
Q1 2012+2.6%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q3 2011-11.0%
Q2 2011+9.0%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.4%
Q4 2008-3.4%
Q4 2010-3.4%
Q3 2010-2.4%
Q3 2009-2.4%
Q4 2009-1.6%
Q2 2010-1.6%
Q2 2009-1.6%

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