NYSE$MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net income of $192 million and an adjusted loss of $608 million.

Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported fourth-quarter net income of $192 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, compared to $443 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2019. Adjusted net loss was $608 million, or $(0.94) per diluted share, compared to an adjusted net income of $1.0 billion, or $1.56 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2019.

  • Reported fourth-quarter income of $192 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, which includes net pre-tax benefits of $851 million; reported adjusted loss of $608 million, or ($0.94) per diluted share
  • $21 billion Speedway sale targeted to close by end of first quarter; reiterating commitment to use proceeds to strengthen the balance sheet and return capital to shareholders
  • Advancing renewable fuels portfolio; Dickinson is 2nd largest renewable diesel facility in the US and progressing Martinez strategic repositioning
  • Continuing focus on lowering cost structure

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$18.2B

Previous: $31.4B-42.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.94

Previous: $1.56-160.3%
Capital Expenditures

$457M

Previous: $1.55B-70.5%
Free Cash Flow

$871M

Previous: $858M+1.5%
Net Income

$192M

Previous: $443M-56.7%
Operating Income

$390M

Previous: $841M-53.6%
Gross Profit

$1.99B

Previous: $3.44B-42.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$540M

Previous: $1.53B-64.6%
Total Assets

$85.2B

Previous: $98.6B-13.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$100M

Previous: $161M-37.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Marathon Petroleum · Revenue · Quarterly

$18.2B

Q4 2020-42%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company provided its first quarter 2021 outlook for the Refining & Marketing segment, including refining operating costs per barrel, distribution costs, refining planned turnaround costs, depreciation and amortization, and refinery throughputs. It also provided guidance for Speedway fuel sales and merchandise sales, as well as corporate and unallocated items.

Tailwinds

  • Dickinson, North Dakota, renewable fuels facility is ramping operations and is on-track to reach full production by the end of the first quarter.
  • At full capacity, the facility is expected to produce 12,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel from corn and soybean oil.
  • MPC intends to sell the renewable diesel into the California market to comply with the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
  • Consistent with MPC's midstream strategy of developing long-haul pipelines and other logistics solutions, several projects advanced during the quarter, including the Wink to Webster crude oil pipeline, the Whistler natural gas pipeline, and the reversal of the Capline crude pipeline.
  • Each of these projects is backed by minimum volume commitments.

Headwinds

  • MPC expects to use proceeds from the sale to strengthen the balance sheet
  • The arrangement includes a 15-year fuel supply agreement and the opportunity to supply additional 7-Eleven locations.
  • Discussions with feedstock suppliers and definition engineering activities continue to advance.
  • As envisioned, the Martinez facility would be expected to start producing renewable diesel by the second half of 2022, with a potential to build to full capacity of 48,000 barrels per day by the end of 2023.
  • First Quarter 2021 OutlookRefining & Marketing Segment:Refining operating costs per barrel(a)$5.35

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 66 earnings

Positive

+8.9%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-13.2%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.9%-3.0%+3.2%
Q4 2025+5.2%+14.7%+22.9%
Q3 2025-6.1%-1.0%-2.9%
Q2 2025+0.6%-4.2%+6.6%
Q1 2025+1.0%+5.3%+10.4%
Q4 2024+6.7%+2.1%-6.4%
Q3 2024+7.1%+6.1%+3.6%
Q2 2024+4.5%+8.5%+4.0%
Q1 2024-10.7%-9.0%-14.2%
Q4 2023+3.4%+3.9%+5.7%
Q3 2023+5.7%+2.7%+1.6%
Q2 2023+2.1%+3.7%+7.3%
Q1 2023-10.1%-12.7%-13.5%
Q4 2022-4.8%-8.5%+0.4%
Q3 2022+1.0%+3.5%+5.8%
Q2 2022+2.6%-0.1%+7.1%
Q1 2022+8.1%+7.6%+17.0%
Q4 2021+4.0%+7.8%+5.0%
Q3 2021-5.3%-2.2%-5.8%
Q2 2021+1.0%+2.3%+4.1%
Q1 2021+3.9%+5.0%+10.7%
Q4 2020+8.9%+1.8%-0.1%
Q3 2020+8.2%+7.1%+37.6%
Q2 2020-1.3%-4.0%-8.4%
Q1 2020-6.3%+4.8%+20.6%
Q4 2019+2.7%-1.6%-10.4%
Q3 2019+0.4%+0.4%-8.4%
Q2 2019-4.9%-12.1%-12.7%
Q1 2019-10.9%-14.7%-20.9%
Q4 2018-6.2%-7.5%-14.0%
Q3 2018-1.4%-3.0%-7.5%
Q2 2018+8.4%+8.2%+12.2%
Q1 2018-10.5%-5.5%-2.3%
Q4 2017-2.7%-5.2%-5.9%
Q3 2017+3.6%+5.8%+9.9%
Q2 2017-1.2%+1.6%-7.1%
Q1 2017+2.7%+3.7%+6.5%
Q4 2016-0.3%+0.7%+6.7%
Q3 2016-3.3%-4.3%+8.9%
Q2 2016+4.1%+2.5%+10.6%
Q1 2016-5.5%
Q4 2015-13.2%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015-2.0%
Q1 2015+0.1%
Q4 2014+1.5%
Q3 2014+4.0%
Q2 2014+5.8%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013+5.2%
Q3 2013-2.3%
Q2 2013-1.9%
Q1 2013-10.8%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-3.4%
Q2 2012-1.4%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q1 2012-2.1%
Q4 2011+2.5%
Q4 2009+2.5%
Q1 2010+2.5%
Q3 2010-1.1%
Q3 2011-1.1%
Q4 2010+8.6%
Q2 2011+8.6%
Q2 2010+8.6%

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