NYSE$MOS

Mosaic Co · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mosaic's Q3 2024 results were reported, with a net income of $122 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $448 million, despite operational interruptions and weather events.

Mosaic reported a net income of $122 million for Q3 2024, with adjusted EPS at $0.34 and adjusted EBITDA at $448 million. The company faced operational interruptions and weather events but managed to recover, with phosphate production returning to full capacity. Clint Freeland is set to retire as CFO, to be succeeded by Luciano Siani Pires.

  • Third quarter net income was reported at $122 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.
  • Clint Freeland will retire at year-end and will be succeeded by Luciano Siani Pires as CFO.
  • Phosphate production returned to full operating capacity after hurricane impacts and is on track to reach the target annual run rate by the end of the year.
  • Mosaic Biosciences achieved 9 million acres of coverage in key markets this year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.81B

Previous: $3.55B-20.8%
EPS

$0.38

Previous: $0.68-44.1%
Potash Sales Volume

2.0M

Previous: 2.2M-9.1%
Phosphate Sales Volume

1.5M

Previous: 1.7M-11.8%
Fertilizantes Sales Volume

2.9M

Previous: 3.1M-6.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$958M

Previous: -$412M-132.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$836M

Previous: -$416M-100.9%
Net Income

$122M

Previous: -$4.2M+3009.5%
Operating Income

$115M

Previous: $146M-20.9%
Gross Profit

$417M

Previous: $410M+1.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$302M

Previous: $591M-49.0%
Total Assets

$23.3B

Previous: $22.7B+2.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.5M

Previous: $6M-8.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Mosaic · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.81B

Q3 2024-20.8%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mosaic · $3.42B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Mosaic Fertilizantes
    $1.7B-35.3%
  • Phosphates
    $1B-13.1%
  • Potash
    $720M-48.5%

Forward guidance

The company provided modeling assumptions for the full year 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Grain and oilseed fundamentals are strong.
  • Improving corn and soybean prices around the world and solid prices for other crops continue to incentivize farmers to apply fertilizers.
  • North America is expected to have a long fall fertilizer application season as harvest has progressed ahead of schedule.
  • Weather conditions in Brazil have improved since mid-October and this should limit the delay in planting of the Safrinha crop.
  • The global potash market remains balanced driven by demand growth and record consumption across the globe.

Headwinds

  • Chinese phosphate exports for the first 9 months of 2024 declined 8 percent or over half a million tonnes from the prior year, and the long-term outlook remains favorable as Chinese domestic use and industrial needs will continue to be prioritized over fertilizer exports.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+15.3%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-12.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.7%-1.9%
Q4 2025-0.6%-3.4%-12.2%
Q3 2025-1.2%-2.5%-11.1%
Q1 2025-0.1%+3.6%+18.6%
Q4 2024-4.7%-3.8%+8.6%
Q3 2024-6.8%-5.9%-4.9%
Q2 2024+0.3%+2.0%+0.1%
Q1 2024-9.5%-7.5%-1.5%
Q4 2023+6.1%+4.2%+2.7%
Q3 2023+0.9%+3.6%+10.6%
Q2 2023-0.1%+1.2%-4.7%
Q1 2023-10.9%-12.7%-23.7%
Q4 2022+5.4%+8.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022+7.3%+7.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-0.8%-0.8%+2.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+2.6%-6.0%
Q4 2021+0.4%+10.1%+52.4%
Q3 2021-9.5%-10.2%-19.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%+0.8%+1.9%
Q1 2021-2.4%+5.2%+6.0%
Q4 2020-9.8%-3.1%+8.7%
Q3 2020-7.1%-8.7%+14.8%
Q2 2020+15.3%+27.6%+40.2%
Q1 2020+5.7%+6.8%+23.0%
Q4 2019+1.2%+6.4%-47.5%
Q3 2019+4.8%+0.7%-11.1%
Q2 2019-3.7%-4.2%-17.9%
Q1 2019-9.3%-6.7%-13.2%
Q4 2018-2.7%-4.0%-17.6%
Q3 2018+11.7%+14.8%+10.6%
Q2 2018+4.1%+3.4%+0.2%
Q1 2018-4.8%-3.2%+6.0%
Q4 2017+5.2%+13.0%-2.9%
Q3 2017+8.6%+7.3%+16.5%
Q2 2017-7.8%-6.5%-17.2%
Q1 2017-12.1%-12.7%-15.2%
Q4 2016+0.6%+2.6%-9.5%
Q3 2016+5.1%+4.1%+23.6%
Q2 2016+2.5%+2.4%+9.5%
Q1 2016-5.2%
Q4 2015-2.2%
Q3 2015-3.2%
Q2 2015+4.3%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014+2.5%
Q3 2014+3.7%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013-0.8%
Q2 2013+3.4%
Q1 2013-5.4%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-5.7%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012-10.2%
Q4 2009+3.8%
Q4 2011+3.8%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q3 2010-0.1%
Q2 2011-1.1%
Q2 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+2.8%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q4 2010+2.8%

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