NYSE$MOS

Mosaic Co · Q1 2025 earnings

Q1 2025 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Mosaic reported Q1 2025 results with lower net sales across all segments and a decline in profitability compared to the previous year.

Mosaic's Q1 2025 performance reflected continued market pressure with lower realized prices and volumes across segments, resulting in reduced revenues and profitability.

  • Net sales fell across Potash, Phosphates, and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments.
  • EPS declined to $0.30, with adjusted EPS at $0.33.
  • Net income for the quarter was $104 million, significantly down from the prior year.
  • Operating income dropped to $218 million amid lower gross margins.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.67B

Previous: $2.68B-0.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.33

Previous: $0.14+135.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$341M

Previous: -$383M+11.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$212M

Previous: -$338M+37.2%
Net Income

$104M

Previous: $45.2M+130.1%
Operating Income

$218M

Previous: $173M+26.1%
Gross Profit

$390M

Previous: $399M-2.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Mosaic · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.67B

Q1 2025-0.5%vs Q1 2024
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mosaic · $3.42B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Mosaic Fertilizantes
    $1.7B-35.3%
  • Phosphates
    $1B-13.1%
  • Potash
    $720M-48.5%

Forward guidance

Mosaic expects continued pressure in fertilizer markets due to elevated inventory levels and uncertain pricing but remains optimistic for improvement in the second half of the year.

Tailwinds

  • Expectations for price recovery in the second half of 2025.
  • Improved cost discipline and operating efficiencies.
  • Strong demand anticipated in Brazil during the planting season.
  • Global grain markets remain supportive of fertilizer usage.
  • Enhanced focus on cash preservation and capital returns.

Headwinds

  • Weak pricing environment in early Q2.
  • High inventory levels across key markets.
  • Currency volatility in South America.
  • Lower-than-expected volumes in Potash and Phosphates.
  • Increased freight and logistics costs impacting margins.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2025

Historical avgQ1 2025

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+15.3%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-12.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.7%-1.9%
Q4 2025-0.6%-3.4%-12.2%
Q3 2025-1.2%-2.5%-11.1%
Q1 2025-0.1%+3.6%+18.6%
Q4 2024-4.7%-3.8%+8.6%
Q3 2024-6.8%-5.9%-4.9%
Q2 2024+0.3%+2.0%+0.1%
Q1 2024-9.5%-7.5%-1.5%
Q4 2023+6.1%+4.2%+2.7%
Q3 2023+0.9%+3.6%+10.6%
Q2 2023-0.1%+1.2%-4.7%
Q1 2023-10.9%-12.7%-23.7%
Q4 2022+5.4%+8.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022+7.3%+7.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-0.8%-0.8%+2.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+2.6%-6.0%
Q4 2021+0.4%+10.1%+52.4%
Q3 2021-9.5%-10.2%-19.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%+0.8%+1.9%
Q1 2021-2.4%+5.2%+6.0%
Q4 2020-9.8%-3.1%+8.7%
Q3 2020-7.1%-8.7%+14.8%
Q2 2020+15.3%+27.6%+40.2%
Q1 2020+5.7%+6.8%+23.0%
Q4 2019+1.2%+6.4%-47.5%
Q3 2019+4.8%+0.7%-11.1%
Q2 2019-3.7%-4.2%-17.9%
Q1 2019-9.3%-6.7%-13.2%
Q4 2018-2.7%-4.0%-17.6%
Q3 2018+11.7%+14.8%+10.6%
Q2 2018+4.1%+3.4%+0.2%
Q1 2018-4.8%-3.2%+6.0%
Q4 2017+5.2%+13.0%-2.9%
Q3 2017+8.6%+7.3%+16.5%
Q2 2017-7.8%-6.5%-17.2%
Q1 2017-12.1%-12.7%-15.2%
Q4 2016+0.6%+2.6%-9.5%
Q3 2016+5.1%+4.1%+23.6%
Q2 2016+2.5%+2.4%+9.5%
Q1 2016-5.2%
Q4 2015-2.2%
Q3 2015-3.2%
Q2 2015+4.3%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014+2.5%
Q3 2014+3.7%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013-0.8%
Q2 2013+3.4%
Q1 2013-5.4%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-5.7%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012-10.2%
Q4 2009+3.8%
Q4 2011+3.8%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q3 2010-0.1%
Q2 2011-1.1%
Q2 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+2.8%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q4 2010+2.8%

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