NYSE$MOS

Mosaic Co · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mosaic's financial performance reflected a net loss, but strategic initiatives led to increased phosphate production and cost savings.

The Mosaic Company reported a net loss of $162 million for the second quarter of 2024, with adjusted EPS at $0.54 and adjusted EBITDA at $584 million. Revenues totaled $2.8 billion, a 17% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to lower selling prices. The company saw increased phosphate production volumes and made progress on cost-saving initiatives.

  • Net loss of $162 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $584 million.
  • Phosphate production volumes increased almost 100,000 tonnes sequentially.
  • Significant progress made on cost saving initiatives.
  • Accelerating Mosaic Biosciences growth; achieved 5 million acres of coverage in North and Central America in the 2024 crop year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.82B

Previous: $3.39B-17.0%
EPS

-$0.50

Previous: $1.04-148.1%
Potash Sales Volume

2.3M

Previous: 2.2M+4.5%
Phosphate Sales Volume

1.7M

Previous: 1.9M-10.5%
Fertilizantes Sales Volume

2.2M

Previous: 2.4M-8.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$717M

Previous: -$310M-131.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$878M

Previous: $58.7M-1596.4%
Net Income

-$162M

Previous: $369M-143.8%
Operating Income

$233M

Previous: $369M-36.8%
Gross Profit

$394M

Previous: $571M-31.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$322M

Previous: $626M-48.6%
Total Assets

$22.6B

Previous: $23.1B-2.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$11.9M

Previous: $8.6M+38.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Mosaic · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.82B

Q2 2024-17%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mosaic · $3.42B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Mosaic Fertilizantes
    $1.7B-35.3%
  • Phosphates
    $1B-13.1%
  • Potash
    $720M-48.5%

Forward guidance

The Company provides the following modeling assumptions for the full year 2024:

Tailwinds

  • Total Capital Expenditures $1.1 - 1.2 billion
  • Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Approx. $1 billion
  • Selling, General, and Administrative Expense $470 - $500 million
  • Net Interest Expense $160 - $180 million
  • Effective tax rate High 20’s %

Headwinds

  • Cash tax rate Mid 30's %
  • Average MOP Price / tonne (fob mine) $10/mt price change = $60 million
  • Average DAP Price / tonne (fob plant) $10/mt price change = $70 million
  • Approximately 20% of DAP price sensitivity impact is expected to be in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment
  • Approximately 5% of the MOP price sensitivity impact is expected to be in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+15.3%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-12.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.8%-2.1%-10.5%
Q4 2025-0.6%-3.4%-12.2%
Q3 2025-1.2%-2.5%-11.1%
Q1 2025-0.1%+3.6%+18.6%
Q4 2024-4.7%-3.8%+8.6%
Q3 2024-6.8%-5.9%-4.9%
Q2 2024+0.3%+2.0%+0.1%
Q1 2024-9.5%-7.5%-1.5%
Q4 2023+6.1%+4.2%+2.7%
Q3 2023+0.9%+3.6%+10.6%
Q2 2023-0.1%+1.2%-4.7%
Q1 2023-10.9%-12.7%-23.7%
Q4 2022+5.4%+8.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022+7.3%+7.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-0.8%-0.8%+2.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+2.6%-6.0%
Q4 2021+0.4%+10.1%+52.4%
Q3 2021-9.5%-10.2%-19.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%+0.8%+1.9%
Q1 2021-2.4%+5.2%+6.0%
Q4 2020-9.8%-3.1%+8.7%
Q3 2020-7.1%-8.7%+14.8%
Q2 2020+15.3%+27.6%+40.2%
Q1 2020+5.7%+6.8%+23.0%
Q4 2019+1.2%+6.4%-47.5%
Q3 2019+4.8%+0.7%-11.1%
Q2 2019-3.7%-4.2%-17.9%
Q1 2019-9.3%-6.7%-13.2%
Q4 2018-2.7%-4.0%-17.6%
Q3 2018+11.7%+14.8%+10.6%
Q2 2018+4.1%+3.4%+0.2%
Q1 2018-4.8%-3.2%+6.0%
Q4 2017+5.2%+13.0%-2.9%
Q3 2017+8.6%+7.3%+16.5%
Q2 2017-7.8%-6.5%-17.2%
Q1 2017-12.1%-12.7%-15.2%
Q4 2016+0.6%+2.6%-9.5%
Q3 2016+5.1%+4.1%+23.6%
Q2 2016+2.5%+2.4%+9.5%
Q1 2016-5.2%
Q4 2015-2.2%
Q3 2015-3.2%
Q2 2015+4.3%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014+2.5%
Q3 2014+3.7%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013-0.8%
Q2 2013+3.4%
Q1 2013-5.4%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-5.7%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012-10.2%
Q4 2009+3.8%
Q4 2011+3.8%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q3 2010-0.1%
Q2 2011-1.1%
Q1 2011+2.8%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q2 2010+2.8%
Q4 2010+2.8%

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