NYSE$MOS

Mosaic Co · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mosaic's first quarter 2024 earnings were reported, showing a decrease in net earnings compared to the previous year, but with progress in strategic initiatives and cost reduction plans.

Mosaic reported net earnings of $45 million for Q1 2024, a decrease from $435 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $576 million, down from $777 million in Q1 2023. The company is focusing on execution and completion of low capital intensity initiatives.

  • Net earnings were $45 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.65 and adjusted EBITDA at $576 million.
  • Revenues totaled $2.7 billion, a 26% decrease from the previous year due to lower selling prices.
  • Transaction announced with Ma'aden, valuing Mosaic's stake at approximately $1.5 billion.
  • Completed 800,000 tonne MicroEssentials capacity conversion and Riverview facility returned to full capacity.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.68B

Previous: $3.6B-25.7%
EPS

$0.14

Previous: $1.14-87.7%
Potash Sales Volume

2.1M

Previous: 1.9M+10.5%
Phosphate Sales Volume

2.2M

Previous: 1.8M+22.2%
Fertilizantes Sales Volume

2.7M

Previous: 2.1M+28.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$383M

Previous: -$322M-19.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$338M

Previous: $113M-398.1%
Net Income

$45.2M

Previous: $435M-89.6%
Operating Income

$173M

Previous: $545M-68.3%
Gross Profit

$399M

Previous: $670M-40.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$337M

Previous: $465M-27.6%
Total Assets

$22.9B

Previous: $22.9B+0.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$9.3M

Previous: $12.4M-25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Mosaic · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.68B

Q1 2024-25.7%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mosaic · $3.42B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Mosaic Fertilizantes
    $1.7B-35.3%
  • Phosphates
    $1B-13.1%
  • Potash
    $720M-48.5%

Forward guidance

The company provided modeling assumptions for the full year 2024, including capital expenditures between $1.1 - 1.2 billion, depreciation, depletion & amortization between $960 - $990 million, and selling, general, and administrative expense between $470 - $500 million.

Tailwinds

  • Agricultural fundamentals remain constructive with pressured stock-to-use ratios.
  • Growers are incentivized to maximize yields due to favorable economics.
  • A shift from El Nino to La Nina is expected to create a favorable backdrop in Southeast Asia, India, and Brazil.
  • Parts of the world have experienced under-application of fertilizers, leading to a need to replenish soil nutrients.
  • Low inventory and a favorable demand outlook in Brazil sets the stage for peak or near-peak fertilizer shipments in 2024.

Headwinds

  • Global potash supply constraints are likely to abate with higher exports from Belarus and Russia.
  • Corn and soybean fundamentals and prices have softened recently.
  • Credit and liquidity challenges exist in Brazil.
  • Temporary resumption of China phosphate exports.
  • The Colonsay potash mine was curtailed in March and will remain idle until market conditions improve.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+15.3%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-12.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.7%-1.9%
Q4 2025-0.6%-3.4%-12.2%
Q3 2025-1.2%-2.5%-11.1%
Q1 2025-0.1%+3.6%+18.6%
Q4 2024-4.7%-3.8%+8.6%
Q3 2024-6.8%-5.9%-4.9%
Q2 2024+0.3%+2.0%+0.1%
Q1 2024-9.5%-7.5%-1.5%
Q4 2023+6.1%+4.2%+2.7%
Q3 2023+0.9%+3.6%+10.6%
Q2 2023-0.1%+1.2%-4.7%
Q1 2023-10.9%-12.7%-23.7%
Q4 2022+5.4%+8.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022+7.3%+7.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-0.8%-0.8%+2.3%
Q1 2022+8.7%+2.6%-6.0%
Q4 2021+0.4%+10.1%+52.4%
Q3 2021-9.5%-10.2%-19.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%+0.8%+1.9%
Q1 2021-2.4%+5.2%+6.0%
Q4 2020-9.8%-3.1%+8.7%
Q3 2020-7.1%-8.7%+14.8%
Q2 2020+15.3%+27.6%+40.2%
Q1 2020+5.7%+6.8%+23.0%
Q4 2019+1.2%+6.4%-47.5%
Q3 2019+4.8%+0.7%-11.1%
Q2 2019-3.7%-4.2%-17.9%
Q1 2019-9.3%-6.7%-13.2%
Q4 2018-2.7%-4.0%-17.6%
Q3 2018+11.7%+14.8%+10.6%
Q2 2018+4.1%+3.4%+0.2%
Q1 2018-4.8%-3.2%+6.0%
Q4 2017+5.2%+13.0%-2.9%
Q3 2017+8.6%+7.3%+16.5%
Q2 2017-7.8%-6.5%-17.2%
Q1 2017-12.1%-12.7%-15.2%
Q4 2016+0.6%+2.6%-9.5%
Q3 2016+5.1%+4.1%+23.6%
Q2 2016+2.5%+2.4%+9.5%
Q1 2016-5.2%
Q4 2015-2.2%
Q3 2015-3.2%
Q2 2015+4.3%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014+2.5%
Q3 2014+3.7%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013-0.8%
Q2 2013+3.4%
Q1 2013-5.4%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-5.7%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012-10.2%
Q4 2009+3.8%
Q4 2011+3.8%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q3 2010-0.1%
Q2 2011-1.1%
Q2 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+2.8%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q4 2010+2.8%

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