NYSE$MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Magnolia's Q4 2023 financial results were announced, showcasing a decrease in net income but growth in production.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported a decrease in net income for Q4 2023 compared to the previous year, but experienced a 16% increase in total production. The company focused on disciplined capital spending and returning cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

  • Net income attributable to Class A Common Stock was $98.4 million, or $0.53 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDAX was $240.0 million, with D&C capital at $91.5 million, representing 38% of quarterly adjusted EBITDAX.
  • Total production averaged 85.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), a 16% increase year-over-year.
  • Magnolia repurchased 2.5 million Class A Common shares for $54.2 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$323M

Previous: $349M-7.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.52

Previous: $0.99-47.5%
Total avg daily production

85.4K

Previous: 73.8K+15.8%
Oil avg daily production

35.5K

Previous: 32.3K+9.8%
Natural gas avg daily production

154.8K

Previous: 135.4K+14.4%
NGL avg daily production

24.1K

Previous: 18.9K+27.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$17.3M

No prior period
Net Income

$114M

No prior period
Operating Income

$138M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$174M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Magnolia · Revenue · Quarterly

$323M

Q4 2023-7.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Magnolia · $316M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Oil revenues
    $244M
  • NGL revenues
    $45M
  • Natural gas revenues
    $27.1M

Forward guidance

Magnolia expects high single-digit production growth in 2024, with oil volumes growing at similar rates. The company anticipates a reinvestment rate of less than 55 percent of adjusted EBITDAX and plans to return a significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders.

Tailwinds

  • Total company production growth to be in the high single digits.
  • Oil volumes growing at similar rates and remaining fairly steady through the year.
  • Capital plan will continue to be disciplined.
  • Reinvestment rate of less than 55 percent of adjusted EBITDAX at current product prices.
  • Well costs in Giddings have declined by more than 20 percent from year-ago levels leading to lower F&D costs.

Headwinds

  • First quarter D&C capital expenditures to be approximately $130 million and anticipate this to be the highest quarterly rate of spending for the year.
  • Total production for the first quarter is estimated to be approximately 84 to 85 Mboe/d which incorporates several days of production and facilities downtime caused by severe winter weather conditions in mid-January.
  • Oil price differentials are anticipated to be approximately a $3 per barrel discount to Magellan East Houston
  • The company remains completely unhedged for all its oil and natural gas production.
  • Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, which is expected to be filed with the SEC on February 15, 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+15.1%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-13.2%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-0.1%-4.0%
Q4 2025+3.1%+2.9%+11.5%
Q3 2025-2.6%-4.7%+0.6%
Q1 2025+2.7%+1.3%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.5%+0.5%+5.2%
Q3 2024-0.1%+1.7%+9.6%
Q2 2024-4.0%-11.6%-3.7%
Q1 2024+0.8%+0.8%-5.1%
Q4 2023+5.1%+5.3%+17.3%
Q3 2023+2.7%-1.1%-2.4%
Q2 2023-0.4%+3.7%+2.9%
Q1 2023-5.2%-0.3%+2.0%
Q4 2022-2.1%-8.0%-13.4%
Q3 2022-2.7%+2.4%-0.2%
Q2 2022-2.7%-6.5%-5.0%
Q1 2022-13.2%-7.6%+14.5%
Q4 2021+3.0%+2.0%+15.4%
Q3 2021-1.1%-0.9%-13.1%
Q2 2021+0.6%+3.4%+11.1%
Q1 2021+5.6%+7.9%+24.7%
Q4 2020+15.1%+19.3%+7.0%
Q3 2020+0.7%+24.4%+79.0%
Q2 2020-0.2%+8.0%-0.3%
Q1 2020+8.6%+9.6%+31.5%
Q2 2019-4.7%+2.4%-44.6%
Q4 2019-3.5%-11.3%-56.6%
Q3 2019+10.2%+16.3%+11.3%
Q1 2019-1.8%-3.7%-17.2%
Q4 2018+0.3%+4.3%-2.1%
Q3 2018+3.5%+10.7%-2.6%
Q2 2018+1.3%+4.8%+13.8%
Q1 2018+2.3%+3.5%+4.2%
Q4 2017-0.1%-0.1%+0.5%
Q3 2017+0.0%-0.1%-0.1%
Q2 2017+0.0%-1.8%-0.3%
Q1 2017

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