NYSE$KMX

CarMax Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CarMax reported mixed results with revenue increase offset by earnings decline due to macro factors and strategic investments.

CarMax reported a substantial increase in revenue driven by higher average selling prices in both retail and wholesale segments. However, net earnings per share decreased due to macro factors and increased SG&A expenses related to technology investments and strategic initiatives.

  • CarMax's share of the nationwide used vehicle market increased to a record 4.0% in calendar year 2021.
  • Net revenues rose 48.8% to $7.7 billion.
  • Combined retail and wholesale used vehicle unit sales increased 11.3% to 343,413 units.
  • The company bought approximately 324,000 vehicles from consumers, a 69.0% increase versus the prior year quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.69B

Previous: $5.16B+48.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.98

Previous: $1.27-22.8%
Wholesale vehicle unit sales

149.1K

Previous: 103.7K+43.8%
Used vehicle avg selling price

$29.3K

Previous: $21K+39.7%
Wholesale vehicle avg selling price

$11.5K

Previous: $6.21K+85.2%
Used vehicle gross profit

$2.2K

Previous: $2.09K+5.2%
Wholesale vehicle gross profit

$1.19K

Previous: $990.00+20.3%
Used vehicle unit sales

194.3K

Previous: 204.9K-5.2%
Capital Expenditures

$81.6M

Previous: $40.6M+101.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$548M

Previous: -$241M-127.4%
Net Income

$160M

Previous: $210M-23.9%
Operating Income

$201M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$711M

Previous: $641M+10.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$103M

Previous: $132M-22.4%
Total Assets

$26.3B

Previous: $21.5B+22.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$235K

Previous: $48M-99.5%

Revenue & EPS history

CarMax · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.69B

Q4 2022+48.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CarMax · $7.69B total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Used vehicle sales
    $5.74B+32.6%
  • Wholesale vehicle sales
    $1.77B+160.2%
  • Other sales and revenues
    $181M+15.2%

Forward guidance

CarMax provided updated long-term targets, including selling between 2 million and 2.4 million vehicles and generating between $33 billion and $45 billion in revenue by fiscal 2026.

Tailwinds

  • Roll out and rapid adoption of our online instant appraisal offer has solidified our position as the nation’s largest buyer of vehicles from consumers
  • Nearly doubling our fiscal 2022 inventory self sufficiency
  • Propelling our wholesale business to new heights
  • We continue to expand the availability of our end-to-end, unaided online experience, and we expect to have this capability available to 100% of customers by the end of our first quarter.
  • We also continue to enhance our finance-based shopping experience, further positioning our business for growth.

Headwinds

  • The fourth quarter was adversely affected by macro factors
  • Declining consumer confidence
  • The Omicron-fueled surge in COVID cases
  • Vehicle affordability
  • The lapping of stimulus benefits paid in the prior year period.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

28 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.6%

Q1 2015

Best reaction

-23.6%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027-8.5%
Q4 2026-3.4%-16.7%-23.0%
Q3 2026-4.5%-6.4%+18.9%
Q2 2026-19.9%-21.3%-22.4%
Q1 2026-3.4%-4.0%-10.8%
Q4 2025-17.0%-15.4%-17.4%
Q3 2025+3.5%+4.3%-3.0%
Q2 2025+3.8%+4.9%-3.3%
Q1 2025+2.6%+1.9%+12.1%
Q4 2024-9.9%-12.0%-9.6%
Q3 2024+2.5%+2.0%-7.4%
Q2 2024-11.2%-13.4%-24.1%
Q1 2024+3.7%+7.7%+6.3%
Q4 2023+4.1%+5.5%+9.7%
Q3 2023+1.3%+1.8%+11.3%
Q2 2023-23.6%-20.8%-26.2%
Q1 2023+7.5%+2.0%+2.8%
Q4 2022-9.9%-11.0%-11.5%
Q3 2022-7.8%-6.9%-21.1%
Q2 2022-13.2%-13.8%-6.5%
Q1 2022+8.0%+8.1%+12.9%
Q4 2021-3.5%-4.8%+0.4%
Q3 2021-7.2%-8.1%+19.7%
Q2 2021-11.2%-12.1%-14.1%
Q1 2021-4.0%-8.6%-3.0%
Q4 2020-7.2%+10.8%+35.7%
Q3 2020-9.7%-10.1%-3.1%
Q2 2020-0.9%+0.7%+9.5%
Q1 2020-0.4%+1.4%+2.2%
Q4 2019+8.5%+11.8%+22.4%
Q3 2019+4.1%+10.3%+9.2%
Q2 2019-2.7%-2.9%-7.7%
Q1 2019+8.0%+4.6%+8.6%
Q4 2018+3.8%-2.0%+8.3%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.3%+3.1%
Q2 2018+7.9%+9.5%+9.2%
Q1 2018+5.5%+7.0%+11.5%
Q4 2017-0.3%+1.0%+5.4%
Q3 2017+5.8%+2.7%+6.6%
Q2 2017-2.5%-3.9%-10.2%
Q1 2017-8.2%-8.5%+13.7%
Q4 2016-4.3%
Q3 2016-8.1%
Q2 2016-5.3%
Q1 2016-5.5%
Q4 2015+8.1%
Q3 2015+12.1%
Q2 2015-8.2%
Q1 2015+14.6%
Q4 2014-8.2%
Q3 2014-10.6%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.3%
Q4 2013+8.4%
Q3 2013+8.5%
Q2 2013-8.4%
Q1 2013-7.8%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q4 2009+1.2%
Q3 2012+2.0%
Q2 2012+7.1%
Q1 2011-3.9%
Q1 2012-3.9%
Q4 2011+4.4%
Q3 2011+2.3%
Q3 2010+2.3%
Q2 2010-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q2 2011-0.7%

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