NYSE$ARIS

Aris Water Solutions Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter 2023 results, demonstrating volume growth and margin expansion.

Aris Water Solutions reported an excellent third quarter with significant year-over-year and sequential volume growth, increased margins due to operating cost reduction efforts, and raised full year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.

  • Total water volumes reached approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, up 7% year-over-year.
  • Produced Water volumes were approximately 1.06 million barrels per day, up 17% year-over-year.
  • Net income increased to $12.2 million, a 526% increase compared to the third quarter of 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $44.9 million, up 14% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$99.8M

Previous: $90.8M+9.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.23

Previous: $0.23+0.0%
Total Volumes

1.5M

Previous: 1.4M+7.1%
Skim Oil Recoveries

1.1K

Previous: 889+26.5%
Gross Margin/Barrel

$0.26

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin/Barrel

$0.40

Previous: $0.36+11.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$53.9M

Previous: $48.7M-210.7%
Free Cash Flow

$2.17M

Previous: -$8.75M+124.8%
Net Income

$12.2M

Previous: $699K+1651.4%
Operating Income

$22.2M

Previous: $9.01M+146.8%
Gross Profit

$35.7M

Previous: $29.9M+19.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$24.2M

Previous: $25.2M-4.0%
Total Assets

$1.35B

Previous: $1.28B+5.8%
R&D Expense

$809K

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$3.36M

Previous: $3.6M-6.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Aris Water Solutions · Revenue · Quarterly

$99.8M

Q3 2023+9.9%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aris Water Solutions · $65.3M total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Produced Water Handling
    $49.7M—
  • Water Solutions
    $14.9M—
  • Other Revenue
    $645K—

Forward guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2023, Aris Water Solutions anticipates produced water volumes to be up approximately 2–3%, adjusting for the impact of the Martin County asset sale, and water solutions volumes to be down moderately sequentially versus the third quarter due to the pull-forward of activity and potential seasonal year-end slowdowns.

Tailwinds

  • Produced Water Handling volumes between 1,045 and 1,055 thousand barrels of water per day, reflecting the impact of the Martin County asset divestiture.
  • Adjusted Operating Margin per Barrel between $0.39 and $0.41.
  • Skim oil recoveries of 0.10% of inlet produced water handling volumes at an average WTI price of $87 per barrel.
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $41 and $45 million.
  • Capital expenditures between $24 and $34 million, partially offset by $20.1 million cash proceeds from the sale of non-core assets.

Headwinds

  • Water Solutions volumes between 405 and 420 thousand barrels of water per day.
  • Potential seasonal year-end slowdowns.
  • Water solutions volumes to be down moderately sequentially versus the third quarter due to the pull-forward of activity.
  • Impact of the Martin County asset sale.
  • Variability of the excluded items may have a significant, and potentially unpredictable impact on our future GAAP results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+15.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

14 / 24 earnings

Positive

+32.6%

Q1 2023

Best reaction

-22.8%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025-5.9%-3.4%+38.7%
Q2 2025+1.7%-3.9%+234.7%
Q1 2025-21.8%-5.9%+6.2%
Q4 2024+20.7%-1.8%+18.5%
Q3 2024+28.8%-3.5%-17.5%
Q2 2024-0.4%-0.8%+13.8%
Q1 2024+13.6%+3.6%+2.9%
Q4 2023+22.1%+5.4%+28.6%
Q3 2023+8.9%+4.8%+28.8%
Q2 2023+0.6%-4.1%-6.6%
Q1 2023+32.6%-16.8%-20.4%
Q4 2022-18.7%-7.2%+10.2%
Q3 2022-5.0%+12.5%+8.9%
Q2 2022-22.8%+0.5%-9.2%
Q1 2022-2.7%-11.8%-16.3%
Q4 2021+19.0%+1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2020+0.5%+3.5%-21.7%
Q3 2020+0.1%-1.1%-5.5%
Q2 2020+5.4%+5.0%+7.6%
Q3 2017-1.2%-1.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+0.0%-4.3%+0.0%
Q1 2017-5.5%-13.7%+9.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+11.1%-7.4%
Q3 2016+4.3%+0.0%+55.7%
Q2 2016———
Q1 2016———
Q4 2015———
Q3 2015———
Q3 2014———
Q4 2014———
Q1 2014———
Q2 2014———
Q3 2013———
Q2 2013———
Q1 2013———
Q4 2012———
Q3 2012———
Q2 2012———
Q1 2012———
Q4 2011———
Q3 2011———
Q2 2011———
Q1 2011———
Q4 2010———
Q3 2010———
Q2 2010———
Q1 2010———
Q4 2009———

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