NYSE$AM

Antero Midstream Corp · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fourth quarter 2021 financial results and 2022 capital budget and guidance.

Antero Midstream reported Q4 2021 revenues of $234 million and net income of $79 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 5% year-over-year to $213 million. The company's capital expenditures increased significantly to $80 million, impacting free cash flow after dividends, which resulted in a $19 million deficit.

  • Low pressure gathering volumes averaged 2,961 MMcf/d, a 3% decrease compared to the prior year quarter.
  • Fresh water delivery volumes increased by 86% compared to the prior year quarter, averaging 80 MBbl/d.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 5% year-over-year to $213 million.
  • Capital expenditures increased 179% year-over-year to $80 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$216M

Previous: $204M+6.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.20

Previous: $0.21-4.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$213M

Previous: $203M+4.9%
Capital Expenditures

$80M

Previous: $29M+175.9%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow after dividends

-$19M

Previous: $0.00
Free Cash Flow

-$19M

Previous: $135M-114.1%
Net Income

$79M

Previous: $76M+3.9%
Operating Income

$0.00

Previous: $0.00
Gross Profit

$150M

Previous: $140M+6.8%
Total Assets

$5.54B

Previous: $0.00
Stock-Based Comp

$3.2M

Previous: $3.07M+4.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Antero Midstream · Revenue · Quarterly

$216M

Q4 2021+6.2%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Antero Midstream · $216M total across 3 segments · Q4 2021

  • Gathering and Processing
    $183M-0.5%
  • Water Handling
    $51M+34.2%
  • Amortization of Customer Relationships
    -$18M+0.0%

Forward guidance

Antero Midstream is forecasting Net Income of $330 to $370 million and Adjusted Net Income of $385 to $425 million. The Company is forecasting Adjusted EBITDA of $850 to $890 million and a capital budget of $275 to $300 million. The Company is forecasting Free Cash Flow after dividends of a $(45) to $(5) million deficit for 2022.

Tailwinds

  • EBITDA growth and declining capital budgets will aid transition to business model generating consistent and sustainable Free Cash Flow after dividends beginning in the second half of 2022.
  • Company is well positioned to meet long-term leverage target of 3.0x over the next few years.
  • Plan to expand existing Marcellus and Utica Shale gathering, compression and fresh water delivery systems.
  • Over 95% of Antero Midstream’s 2022 capital budget is focused in the Marcellus Shale and the remaining capital is focused in the Utica Shale.
  • Antero Midstream expects to fund its 2022 capital budget through net cash provided by operating activities.

Headwinds

  • Guidance includes four quarterly low pressure gathering rebates to Antero Resources totaling $48 million.
  • Free Cash Flow after dividends of a $(45) to $(5) million deficit for 2022, assuming an annualized dividend of $0.90 per share.
  • Includes approximately $115 to $125 million of combined distributions from its interests in the processing and fractionation joint venture with MPLX, LP (the “Joint Venture”) and in Stonewall Gathering LLC.
  • Capital investment includes $45 million in 2022 for the construction of two compressor stations with 240 MMcf/d of capacity each that will be phased in from 2022 through 2023.
  • Capital budget includes approximately $50 million of remaining capital for a 20 mile high pressure trunkline from Wetzel County to the Sherwood and Smithburg processing complex.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

17 / 35 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-0.5%-4.3%
Q4 2025+2.3%+4.9%+13.2%
Q3 2025-0.2%-1.9%+2.7%
Q1 2025+1.9%+5.8%+13.5%
Q4 2024+6.1%+5.9%+7.3%
Q3 2024-3.4%-3.0%+7.3%
Q2 2024-3.6%-8.0%+2.1%
Q1 2024+2.1%+1.7%+3.4%
Q4 2023+6.2%+6.2%+14.4%
Q3 2023+1.7%+0.4%+9.1%
Q2 2023-0.9%+1.8%+1.8%
Q1 2023+4.7%+10.3%+5.7%
Q4 2022+1.0%-2.4%-9.1%
Q3 2022+0.5%+4.0%+8.0%
Q2 2022+0.9%+2.9%+7.5%
Q1 2022+9.2%+3.7%+11.5%
Q4 2021-5.3%-3.7%+2.6%
Q3 2021-1.7%-3.1%-7.2%
Q2 2021+0.7%-3.9%+0.9%
Q1 2021-2.2%-2.3%+6.8%
Q4 2020-12.5%-12.4%-3.2%
Q3 2020-5.8%-11.9%+9.6%
Q1 2020+2.6%+1.7%+3.2%
Q4 2019-0.6%-4.8%-31.7%
Q3 2019-1.9%-8.9%-36.5%
Q2 2019-6.7%-12.5%-21.3%
Q1 2019+0.7%-1.1%+0.1%
Q4 2018+1.5%-5.9%-8.6%
Q3 2018-0.4%-3.9%-6.0%
Q2 2018-0.9%-1.7%-12.1%
Q1 2018+4.3%+3.3%+9.2%
Q4 2017+4.5%+4.6%-13.4%
Q3 2017-2.8%-2.6%-3.7%
Q2 2017-5.8%-7.1%-10.4%
Q1 2017-1.3%-3.5%-0.2%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q2 2014

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