NYSE$AGRO

Adecoagro S.A. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Adecoagro reported a decline in revenue and net income, while Adjusted EBITDA showed growth in Q4 2024.

Adecoagro reported a 7.9% year-over-year decrease in revenue for Q4 2024, reaching $368.38 million. Adjusted net income turned positive at $45.90 million, compared to a loss of $16.40 million in the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 7.8% to $103.25 million, driven by record production in the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy segment, though results were offset by lower sales in Crops and Rice segments.

  • Revenue declined 7.9% year-over-year to $368.38 million due to lower sugar and ethanol prices.
  • Adjusted net income turned positive at $45.90 million, a major improvement from last year’s loss.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 7.8% to $103.25 million, driven by strong Sugar, Ethanol & Energy performance.
  • Free cash flow from operations decreased 8.5% year-over-year to $160.88 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$368M

Previous: $318M+16.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.46

Previous: -$0.15+406.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$103M

No prior period
Net Income

$16.2M

Previous: $82.5M-80.4%
Operating Income

$47.5M

Previous: $123M-61.5%
Gross Profit

$89.2M

Previous: $152M-41.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Adecoagro · Revenue · Quarterly

$368M

Q4 2024+16%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 8 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Adecoagro · $162M total across 1 segment · Q1 2026

  • Food & Agriculture
    $162M

Forward guidance

Adecoagro expects a moderate increase in sugar and ethanol production, with a continued focus on cost control and operational efficiency.

Tailwinds

  • Ethanol prices expected to increase due to tight supply-demand conditions.
  • Sugar production mix optimized to capture premium prices.
  • Dairy segment expected to see increased domestic market demand.
  • Expansion Capex investment to drive long-term growth.
  • Operational efficiencies expected to enhance margins.

Headwinds

  • Lower productivity in early 2025 due to weaker crop yields.
  • Corn and soybean prices remain under pressure from high global supply.
  • Continued cost pressures due to inflation and FX fluctuations.
  • Increased competition in the domestic dairy market.
  • Potential downside risks from global commodity price volatility.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

25 / 42 earnings

Positive

+13.7%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-10.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+13.7%-2.6%-13.6%
Q1 2025+2.2%+5.3%+4.1%
Q4 2024+0.7%+1.1%+4.8%
Q3 2024-5.0%+0.2%-7.9%
Q2 2024+12.2%+10.6%+9.7%
Q1 2024-5.1%-5.6%-16.7%
Q4 2023-3.6%-0.3%+6.7%
Q3 2023+0.1%+1.8%+12.3%
Q2 2023+10.1%+17.1%+24.3%
Q1 2023+2.0%+1.3%+12.0%
Q4 2022-1.5%-0.5%+0.0%
Q3 2022-10.0%-11.4%-15.1%
Q2 2022+8.8%+6.5%+2.2%
Q1 2022+3.5%+10.6%+3.1%
Q4 2021-9.3%-6.2%+6.3%
Q3 2021+5.3%+8.6%-18.4%
Q2 2021-9.5%-9.2%-7.8%
Q1 2021+2.5%+7.7%+19.4%
Q4 2020+3.8%+1.5%-5.4%
Q3 2020+3.4%+7.7%+26.1%
Q2 2020+3.7%+1.0%+4.5%
Q1 2020-0.3%+3.6%+28.0%
Q4 2019+1.0%-9.0%-9.2%
Q3 2019+3.1%+3.1%+27.1%
Q2 2019+8.9%+2.3%+6.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%-1.4%+9.2%
Q4 2018+4.0%+6.0%+4.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%-4.6%-1.4%
Q2 2018+2.7%+2.1%-9.8%
Q1 2018+3.3%+7.9%+10.1%
Q4 2017-2.6%-5.0%-5.0%
Q3 2017-7.6%-3.3%+7.3%
Q2 2017-3.2%-3.4%-1.7%
Q1 2017+1.0%-3.4%-11.7%
Q4 2016-1.7%-0.9%-5.2%
Q3 2016+0.4%+0.7%-5.1%
Q2 2016+0.5%-1.3%+6.6%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q1 2012+2.9%
Q3 2011-6.3%
Q4 2010-3.1%
Q2 2011-0.2%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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