NYSE$AGRO

Adecoagro S.A. · Q1 2025 earnings

Q1 2025 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Adecoagro's Adjusted EBITDA reached $35.9 million in Q1 2025, driven by selective milling and strong commercial strategy, despite a 60.1% year-over-year decrease.

Adecoagro reported a significant decrease in Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025, down 60.1% year-over-year to $35.9 million. This decline was primarily due to a mark-to-market loss in biological assets in the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business, lower crushing volume, and reduced Rice prices compared to record levels in Q1 2024. Despite these challenges, the Dairy business showed outperformance, and overall gross sales increased by 27.5% due to higher ethanol volumes sold.

  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 60.1% year-over-year to $35.9 million in Q1 2025.
  • Gross sales increased by 27.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher ethanol volumes and prices.
  • The Sugar, Ethanol & Energy segment experienced a 42.4% decline in Adjusted EBITDA due to lower crushing volume and biological asset losses.
  • The Farming business saw a 62.2% year-over-year decline in Adjusted EBITDA, mainly from lower Rice and Crops segment results, despite a positive performance in Dairy.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$324M

Previous: $161M+101.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.13

Previous: $0.22-159.1%
Adjusted EBITDA

$35.9M

No prior period
Adjusted EPS

-$0.13

No prior period
Net Debt / LTM Adj. EBITDA

1.7

No prior period
Expansion Capex

$30.1M

No prior period
Shareholder Distribution

$10.2M

No prior period
Net Income

$18.7M

Previous: $47.4M-60.5%
Operating Income

$3.64M

Previous: -$51.9M+107.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Adecoagro · Revenue · Quarterly

$324M

Q1 2025+101.3%vs Q1 2024
Beat estimate in 7 of 8 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Adecoagro · $162M total across 1 segment · Q1 2026

  • Food & Agriculture
    $162M

Forward guidance

Adecoagro anticipates an acceleration in crushing pace during 2H25, expecting crushing volume to be in line with or slightly above 2024 levels. The company foresees potential upside in sugar prices and a tight supply-demand scenario for ethanol. While crop yields are expected to improve, margins will remain pressured by lower prices and cost inflation. Rice production is projected to be similar to the previous year, with strong prices for value-added dairy products.

Tailwinds

  • Precipitations received during April aid in yield recovery, with crushing pace expected to accelerate in 2H25.
  • Potential upside in sugar prices as global demand continues to depend on Brazil's production, with 48% of 2025 sugar production hedged at 20.5 cts/lb.
  • Tight supply & demand scenario for ethanol, with consumer preference continuing to favor ethanol and sustained competitiveness versus gasoline.
  • Strong prices for higher value-added Dairy products in the domestic market, with an expanding product portfolio.
  • Record rice production on record yields and higher planted area, acting as a mitigant against global price declines.

Headwinds

  • Crops harvesting activities are underway, expecting slight improvement in yields versus prior campaign but still below historical average.
  • Margins for Crops to remain pressured on lower prices and cost inflation in U.S. dollar terms.
  • Global rice prices have significantly come down versus 2024 due to oversupply and India's return to the export market.
  • Peanut yields are expected to decrease for the 2024/25 campaign compared to the prior record harvest due to below-average temperatures in early April.
  • International dairy prices are expected to decline in 2H25 due to tariffs imposed between USA and China.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2025

Historical avgQ1 2025

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

25 / 42 earnings

Positive

+13.7%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-10.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+13.7%-2.6%-13.6%
Q1 2025+2.2%+5.3%+4.1%
Q4 2024+0.7%+1.1%+4.8%
Q3 2024-5.0%+0.2%-7.9%
Q2 2024+12.2%+10.6%+9.7%
Q1 2024-5.1%-5.6%-16.7%
Q4 2023-3.6%-0.3%+6.7%
Q3 2023+0.1%+1.8%+12.3%
Q2 2023+10.1%+17.1%+24.3%
Q1 2023+2.0%+1.3%+12.0%
Q4 2022-1.5%-0.5%+0.0%
Q3 2022-10.0%-11.4%-15.1%
Q2 2022+8.8%+6.5%+2.2%
Q1 2022+3.5%+10.6%+3.1%
Q4 2021-9.3%-6.2%+6.3%
Q3 2021+5.3%+8.6%-18.4%
Q2 2021-9.5%-9.2%-7.8%
Q1 2021+2.5%+7.7%+19.4%
Q4 2020+3.8%+1.5%-5.4%
Q3 2020+3.4%+7.7%+26.1%
Q2 2020+3.7%+1.0%+4.5%
Q1 2020-0.3%+3.6%+28.0%
Q4 2019+1.0%-9.0%-9.2%
Q3 2019+3.1%+3.1%+27.1%
Q2 2019+8.9%+2.3%+6.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%-1.4%+9.2%
Q4 2018+4.0%+6.0%+4.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%-4.6%-1.4%
Q2 2018+2.7%+2.1%-9.8%
Q1 2018+3.3%+7.9%+10.1%
Q4 2017-2.6%-5.0%-5.0%
Q3 2017-7.6%-3.3%+7.3%
Q2 2017-3.2%-3.4%-1.7%
Q1 2017+1.0%-3.4%-11.7%
Q4 2016-1.7%-0.9%-5.2%
Q3 2016+0.4%+0.7%-5.1%
Q2 2016+0.5%-1.3%+6.6%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q1 2012+2.9%
Q3 2011-6.3%
Q4 2010-3.1%
Q2 2011-0.2%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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