NASDAQ$WMG

Warner Music Group Corp · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, demonstrating growth in streaming revenue and digital revenue, offset by declines in other areas due to COVID-19 impacts.

Warner Music Group's Q4 2020 results showed a slight increase in revenue, driven by streaming and digital growth, which was partially offset by COVID-19 related business disruptions. The company achieved significant growth in OIBDA and Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting strong operating leverage and digital transformation initiatives.

  • Total revenue increased by 0.2%, but decreased by 1.1% in constant currency.
  • Digital revenue grew by 15% and contributed 65% of total revenue.
  • OIBDA increased by 63% to $155 million.
  • Adjusted OIBDA increased by 35% to $174 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.13B

Previous: $1.06B+6.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.03

Previous: $0.01+131.7%
Adjusted OIBDA Margin

15.5%

Previous: 11.5%+34.8%
Free Cash Flow

$44M

No prior period
Net Income

$1M

Previous: $90M-98.9%
Operating Income

$88M

Previous: $29M+203.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$553M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

WMG · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.13B

Q4 2020+6.4%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 5 of 5 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

WMG · $1.13B total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Recorded Music
    $958M+0.5%
  • Music Publishing
    $169M-2.3%

Forward guidance

Warner Music Group is confident in its long-term growth prospects, particularly as the areas of its business that have been most impacted by COVID-19 return to normal.

Tailwinds

  • Continued momentum in streaming.
  • Operating leverage driven by digital transformation.
  • Business optimization initiatives.
  • Expected recovery in COVID-19 impacted business areas.
  • Strong growth in emerging revenue streams like social media and gaming.

Headwinds

  • Unfavorable impact of exchange rates on euro-denominated debt.
  • Potential for continued COVID-19 related business disruption.
  • Decrease in performance, synchronization and mechanical revenue.
  • Decline in artist services and expanded-rights revenue due to tour postponements.
  • Decrease in licensing revenue due to lower advertising and film deal activity.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-2.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

30%

7 / 23 earnings

Positive

+19.3%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-11.2%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025———
Q2 2026+2.2%+10.7%-1.5%
Q1 2026+3.1%+5.6%-1.2%
Q4 2025-2.7%-7.0%-3.8%
Q2 2025-8.1%-8.7%-12.4%
Q1 2025-1.1%+5.0%+7.1%
Q4 2024-5.4%-3.8%-7.5%
Q3 2024+1.0%-2.1%-1.8%
Q2 2024-11.2%-9.8%-17.2%
Q1 2024-3.0%-0.1%-6.8%
Q4 2023-3.2%-1.1%+2.3%
Q3 2023+8.2%+7.6%+7.9%
Q2 2023-8.0%-11.2%-13.0%
Q1 2023-6.4%-7.2%-18.8%
Q4 2022+19.3%+20.8%+31.2%
Q3 2022-6.7%-5.4%-14.2%
Q2 2022-6.9%+6.6%+3.6%
Q1 2022-4.9%-5.5%-18.0%
Q4 2021-9.7%-10.4%-13.1%
Q3 2021-1.7%-4.1%+4.0%
Q2 2021-6.7%-4.3%-9.3%
Q1 2021+8.2%+8.1%+2.2%
Q4 2020+0.6%-2.5%+30.7%
Q3 2020-4.3%-4.8%-4.5%
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Q4 2010———
Q2 2010———

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