NASDAQ$TMUS

T-Mobile Us Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

T-Mobile delivered industry-leading growth in customers and profitability, raised 2023 guidance again, and achieved the lowest postpaid phone churn in the industry for the first time, while delivering the highest Q2 postpaid phone net adds in eight years.

T-Mobile reported industry-best growth in postpaid customers, driven by growth in postpaid phone gross additions coupled with the lowest postpaid phone churn in the industry. The company translated customer growth into best-in-class growth in Service revenues, Net income, and Core Adjusted EBITDA, while raising full-year 2023 guidance. T-Mobile repurchased $3.5 billion of common stock throughout the quarter.

  • Postpaid net account additions of 299 thousand, best in industry
  • Postpaid net customer additions of 1.6 million, best in industry and raising guidance
  • Postpaid phone net customer additions of 760 thousand, best in industry and best Q2 in eight years
  • Postpaid phone churn of 0.77%, best in industry for the first time ever and a record low

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$19.2B

Previous: $19.7B-2.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.86

Previous: $0.43+332.6%
Postpaid Net Customer Adds

299.0K

Previous: 1.7M-82.4%
Prepaid Net Customer Adds

124.0K

Previous: 146.0K-15.1%
Postpaid Phone Churn

0.8%

Previous: 0.8%-3.8%
Prepaid Churn

2.6%

Previous: 2.6%+1.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.79B

Previous: -$3.57B+21.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$568M

Previous: -$3.68B+84.6%
Net Income

$2.22B

Previous: -$108M+2156.5%
Operating Income

$3.79B

Previous: $709M+435.0%
Gross Profit

-$435M

Previous: -$521M+16.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$6.65B

Previous: $3.15B+110.9%
Total Assets

$211B

Previous: $209B+0.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$167M

Previous: $154M+8.4%

Revenue & EPS history

T-Mobile · Revenue · Quarterly

$19.2B

Q2 2023-2.6%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

T-Mobile · $12.1B total across 1 segment · Q2 2023

  • Postpaid Service Revenue
    $12.1B+5.5%

Forward guidance

T-Mobile raised its 2023 guidance for postpaid net customer additions, Core Adjusted EBITDA, and Net cash provided by operating activities.

Tailwinds

  • Postpaid net customer additions are expected to be between 5.6 million and 5.9 million, an increase from prior guidance of 5.3 million to 5.7 million.
  • Core Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $28.9 billion and $29.2 billion, an increase from prior guidance of $28.8 billion to $29.2 billion.
  • Merger synergies are expected to be approximately $7.5 billion, an increase from prior guidance of $7.3 billion to $7.5 billion.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities is expected to be between $18.0 billion and $18.3 billion, an increase from prior guidance of $17.9 billion to $18.3 billion.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow, including payments for Merger-related costs, is expected to be between $13.2 billion and $13.6 billion.

Headwinds

  • Merger-related costs are expected to be approximately $1.0 billion before taxes.
  • Cash purchases of property and equipment, including capitalized interest, are expected to be between $9.5 billion and $9.7 billion an increase from the prior guidance of $9.4 billion to $9.7 billion.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance does not assume any material net cash inflows from securitization.
  • T-Mobile is not able to forecast Net income on a forward-looking basis without unreasonable efforts due to the high variability and difficulty in predicting certain items that affect GAAP Net income, including, but not limited to, Income tax expense and Interest expense.
  • Core Adjusted EBITDA should not be used to predict Net income as the difference between this measure and Net income is variable.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+1.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

42 / 68 earnings

Positive

+43.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-11.2%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+4.1%+0.3%
Q4 2025+5.1%+10.1%+9.0%
Q3 2025-4.0%-3.3%-7.9%
Q2 2025+1.7%+3.5%-3.4%
Q1 2025-11.2%-5.8%-7.4%
Q3 2024+6.6%+4.0%+8.8%
Q2 2024+6.7%+6.6%+13.3%
Q1 2024-0.1%-0.0%+1.1%
Q4 2023+0.1%-0.2%+1.4%
Q3 2023+1.3%+0.4%+5.6%
Q2 2023-0.2%-2.7%-5.5%
Q1 2023-3.0%-5.3%-8.9%
Q4 2022-1.6%-4.9%-5.0%
Q3 2022+7.2%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2022+5.8%+7.4%+6.8%
Q1 2022+5.9%+1.2%+7.3%
Q4 2021+10.3%+11.4%+12.5%
Q3 2021+5.2%+5.9%-4.7%
Q2 2021-0.8%-0.4%-4.6%
Q1 2021+2.0%+5.8%+8.3%
Q4 2020-3.2%-3.8%-3.6%
Q3 2020+6.5%+4.9%+13.6%
Q2 2020+6.7%+5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2020+7.1%+8.7%+13.7%
Q4 2019+4.5%+15.5%+7.4%
Q3 2019+0.2%+1.0%-3.2%
Q2 2019+4.5%+0.9%-5.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%-0.5%+5.4%
Q4 2018+2.2%+4.0%+5.5%
Q3 2018+5.6%+5.5%+5.8%
Q2 2018+3.6%+10.5%+10.1%
Q1 2018-5.9%-5.4%-7.9%
Q4 2017-4.6%-7.0%+5.1%
Q3 2017+3.0%+4.1%+1.5%
Q2 2017-0.4%+1.9%+2.6%
Q1 2017+4.1%+4.0%+4.9%
Q4 2016+0.7%+5.0%+2.4%
Q3 2016+6.1%+5.6%+16.2%
Q2 2016+2.8%+4.6%+2.2%
Q1 2016-3.6%
Q4 2015+0.5%
Q3 2015-5.0%
Q2 2015+9.8%
Q1 2015+1.6%
Q4 2014+3.1%
Q3 2014+2.6%
Q2 2014+8.0%
Q1 2014+9.3%
Q4 2013-6.1%
Q3 2013-1.1%
Q2 2013+5.1%
Q1 2013+1.4%
Q4 2012+3.5%
Q3 2012-3.6%
Q2 2012+43.9%
Q1 2012+1.0%
Q4 2011-1.4%
Q3 2011+0.8%
Q2 2011-9.3%
Q4 2010-9.3%
Q1 2010-0.8%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q4 2008-1.4%
Q3 2010+7.4%
Q3 2009+7.4%
Q4 2009-7.1%
Q2 2010-7.1%
Q2 2009-7.1%

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