NASDAQ$TFIN

Triumph Financial Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Triumph Financial reported net income of $16.8 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter.

Triumph Financial reported a net income available to common stockholders of $16.8 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, for Q4 2022. The company focused on its transportation businesses, with factoring and payments segments showing growth in clients, invoices, and transaction volume. TriumphPay achieved self-funding status during the quarter, contributing excess non-interest bearing deposits back to the enterprise.

  • Net income available to common stockholders was $16.8 million, or $0.67 per diluted share.
  • TriumphPay achieved self-funding status for the quarter.
  • Factoring segment's pretax contribution was over 20% higher than 2021.
  • Network transaction volume in TriumphPay increased 8.8% quarter over quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$113M

Previous: $118M-4.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.67

Previous: $1.02-34.3%
Non-Performing Assets Ratio

1.0%

Previous: 0.9%+10.9%
Net Income

$17.6M

Previous: $26.6M-34.1%
Operating Income

$25.2M

Previous: $33.3M-24.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$408M

Previous: $383M+6.5%
Total Assets

$5.33B

Previous: $5.96B-10.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.05M

Previous: $11.1M-63.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Triumph Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$113M

Q4 2022-4.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 2 of 15 quarters(13%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Triumph Financial · $54.4M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Factoring
    $47.3M-15.4%
  • Payments
    $7.09M-3.8%

Forward guidance

Triumph Financial anticipates limited balance sheet growth and a reduced share count in the next three years, with revenue growth primarily driven by transportation businesses. Enterprise expense growth is expected to slow, and TriumphPay is projected to be accretive to earnings, with a goal to improve the EBITDA margin by approximately 50% in 2023. The company also expects non-interest revenue as a percentage of total revenue to increase.

Tailwinds

  • The growth of our balance sheet will be limited and our share count will be lower than it is today.
  • Revenue growth will primarily come from our transportation businesses.
  • Enterprise expense growth will be materially slower than in the last three years.
  • TriumphPay will be accretive to earnings.
  • Non-interest revenue as a percentage of total revenue will increase.

Headwinds

  • The caveat to our share reduction plan would be an M&A transaction.
  • In current market conditions; however, I expect our community bank loan balances may grow as we are beginning to see attractive risk adjusted lending opportunities.
  • There is a natural tension between giving long term forecasts for a business that doesn’t exist yet so that investors can understand and underwrite the value proposition and allowing for the fact that some things are not yet known.
  • Our forecast is to improve that by approximately 50% in 2023.
  • Net earnings may be muted for a time if transportation reverses course from the last few weeks and continues to weaken, but we will still be profitable in any reasonably foreseeable circumstance and we will not change our direction or divert our focus.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

26 / 54 earnings

Positive

+12.5%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-13.9%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.9%+1.9%-0.6%
Q4 2025-7.2%-10.6%-16.3%
Q3 2025+7.3%+25.4%+9.4%
Q2 2025-2.6%-2.0%+7.0%
Q1 2025-2.4%-3.0%+22.8%
Q4 2024-13.9%-14.5%-26.6%
Q3 2024+7.9%+9.0%+21.6%
Q2 2024-12.6%-7.7%-10.3%
Q1 2024-9.6%-7.9%+1.7%
Q4 2023-5.2%-6.5%-2.6%
Q3 2023+1.3%+1.0%+17.6%
Q2 2023+0.3%+0.7%-5.2%
Q1 2023-3.3%-0.9%+0.8%
Q4 2022-2.2%+2.9%+15.0%
Q3 2022-10.1%-17.2%+4.7%
Q2 2022+6.9%+4.5%+8.1%
Q1 2022-6.4%-8.1%-19.6%
Q4 2021-12.4%-18.8%-13.9%
Q3 2021+0.0%+6.3%+18.9%
Q2 2021+2.3%+2.9%+10.2%
Q1 2021-0.4%+0.5%-8.6%
Q4 2020+4.2%+10.1%+28.5%
Q3 2020+3.9%+8.1%+11.2%
Q2 2020+12.5%+10.2%+18.4%
Q1 2020-4.3%-8.3%-7.7%
Q4 2019+6.0%+5.2%+10.3%
Q3 2019+1.1%+5.8%+5.5%
Q2 2019+7.8%+9.2%+7.0%
Q1 2019-4.6%-7.3%-2.6%
Q4 2018-9.1%-4.2%+3.0%
Q3 2018-2.0%-7.2%+0.2%
Q2 2018-1.6%-1.4%+2.7%
Q1 2018+2.0%+0.5%+3.8%
Q4 2017+7.2%+6.9%+15.6%
Q3 2017-0.6%+1.3%-5.1%
Q2 2017+7.8%+14.1%+8.7%
Q1 2017-3.7%-9.8%-12.9%
Q4 2016+3.6%+5.9%+5.6%
Q3 2016-4.1%-5.8%+11.4%
Q2 2016+4.1%+2.2%+9.7%
Q1 2016+0.2%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q4 2012-0.2%
Q3 2015-1.0%
Q2 2015+3.1%
Q1 2014+0.2%
Q1 2015+2.7%
Q2 2014-0.2%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q1 2013-0.2%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q2 2013+1.0%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q3 2014+1.0%

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